ARMA模型在市域经济发展规划中的应用——以泉州市为例

文章以泉州市为例,采用泉州市1977-2008年的GDP总量数据为基础,通过建立ARMA时间序列模型,对泉州市2009—2015年“十二五”规划期间的经济发展形势进行预测。结果表明,ARMA模型能够很好地预测GDP序列值,而且便于操作,为其它地区市域经济发展的估计和预测提供了很好的借鉴,文章的预测结果也为政府相关部门制定经济调控政策提供建议。     

Demographic transition and economic growth: Empirical evidence from Greece

Over the past decades, due to a combination of declining fertility rates and rising life expectancies, most industrialized countries have experienced aging populations and low numbers of young populations that may pose economic problems in the future. This paper investigates the relationship first between fertility rate and infant mortality rate and second among demographic changes, real wages and real output in Greece over the period 1960–96. When we control for fluctuations in overall economic activity and the labor market on the bivariate relationship between fertility and mortality rates, the evidence suggests that Granger-causation must exist in at least one direction. The results show that in the long run a decrease in infant mortality rates, taking into consideration economic performance and the labor market, causes a reduction in fertility rates. Also, employing the vector error-correction models, the variance decomposition analysis and the impulse response functions, the empirical results support the endogeneity of fertility choice to infant mortality, the labor market and the growth process. Received: 16 May 1999/Accepted: 18 September 2000     

Sequential estimators and the Cramér-Rao lower bound

While all nonsequential unbiased estimators of the normal mean have variances which must obey the Cramér-Rao inequality, it is shown that some sequential unbiased estimators do not.     

A CONSISTENT MODEL SPECIFICATION TEST FOR A REGRESSION FUNCTION BASED ON NONPARAMETRIC WAVELET ESTIMATION

In this paper we present a consistent specification test of a parametric regression function against a general nonparametric alternative. The proposed test is based on wavelet estimation and it is shown to have similar rates of convergence to the more commonly used kernel based tests. Monte Carlo simulations show that this test statistic has adequate size and high power and that it compares favorably with its kernel based counterparts in small samples.     

Design selection criteria for discrimination/estimation for nested models and a binomial response

The aim of an experiment is often to enable discrimination between competing forms for a response model. We investigate the selection of a continuous design for a non-sequential strategy when there are two competing generalized linear models for a binomial response, with a common link function and the linear predictor of one model nested within that of the other. A new criterion, _TE$T_E$-optimality, is defined, based on the difference in the deviances from the two models, and comparisons are made with T$T$-, _Ds$D_s$- and D$D$-optimality. Issues are raised through the study of two examples in which designs are assessed using simulation studies of the power to reject the null hypothesis of the smaller model being correct, when the data are generated from the larger model. Parameter estimation for discrimination designs is also discussed and a simple method is investigated of combining designs to form a hybrid design in order to achieve both model discrimination and estimation. This method has a computational advantage over the use of a compound criterion and the similar performance of the designs obtained from the two approaches is illustrated in an example.     

Efficiency of weighted averages

When combining estimates of a common parameter (of dimension d?1$d?1$) from independent data sets—as in stratified analyses and meta analyses—a weighted average, with weights ‘proportional’ to inverse variance matrices, is shown to have a minimal variance matrix (a standard fact when d=1$d=1$)—minimal in the sense that all convex combinations of the coordinates of the combined estimate have minimal variances. Minimum variance for the estimation of a single coordinate of the parameter can therefore be achieved by joint estimation of all coordinates using matrix weights. Moreover, if each estimate is asymptotically efficient within its own data set, then this optimally weighted average, with consistently estimated weights, is shown to be asymptotically efficient in the combined data set and avoids the need to merge the data sets and estimate the parameter in question afresh. This is so whatever additional non-common nuisance parameters may be in the models for the various data sets. A special case of this appeared in Fisher [1925. Theory of statistical estimation. Proc. Cambridge Philos. Soc. 22, 700–725.]: Optimal weights are ‘proportional’ to information matrices, and he argued that sample information should be used as weights rather than expected information, to maintain second-order efficiency of maximum likelihood. A number of special cases have appeared in the literature; we review several of them and give additional special cases, including stratified regression analysis—proportional-hazards, logistic or linear—, combination of independent ROC curves, and meta analysis. A test for homogeneity of the parameter across the data sets is also given.     

Cross-cumulants measure for independence

We propose a measure for independence of group of random variables, given by a sum of cross-cumulants of a given order n  . A similar measure was known for the case of fourth-order cross-cumulants from the JADE algorithm for ICA (independent component analysis). We derive a formula for its calculation using cumulant tensors. In the case n=4$n=4$ our formula allows efficient calculation of this measure, using cumulant matrices. Much attention is devoted to the case of six-order cross-cumulants, aiming to show that this measure can be calculated using again cumulant matrices.     

Business strategy and the social norm of tipping

Tipping is an important economic phenomenon, involving about $47 billion a year in the US food industry alone, and trillions of dollars across different occupations and countries over the years. Moreover, tipping is a major source of income for millions of workers. This article discusses the implications of tipping for business strategy in the relevant industries. For example, firms can choose to impose a compulsory service charge in lieu of tipping - what are the advantages and disadvantages of doing so? How does tipping change the profit-maximizing level of investing in screening job applicants, training workers, monitoring them, and providing performance-based incentives by the firm? Can industries such as the music industry use tips (i.e., prices being voluntary and determined by the customers) as an alternative business model?     

Numeracy and wealth

Numeracy is defined as the ability to understand and use numerical information. We examined the relationship between numeracy and wealth using a cross-sectional and a longitudinal study. For a sample of approximately 1000 Dutch adults, we found a statistically significant correlation between numeracy and wealth, even after controlling for differences in education, risk preferences, beliefs about future income, financial knowledge, need for cognition or seeking financial advice. Conditional on socio-demographic characteristics, our estimates suggest that on average a one-point increase in the numeracy score (11-point scale) of the respondent is associated with 5 percent more personal wealth. Additionally, we find that numeracy is a key determinant of the wealth accumulation trajectories that people follow over time. Over a 5-year period, while participants with low numeracy decumulate wealth, participants with high numeracy maintain a constant positive level of wealth.