道德风险和逆向选择共存下的双向激励契约

道德风险和逆向选择的共存降低了供应链的效率.因此,针对核心企业缺失的供应链,根据供应链企业竞争与合作的特点,从虚拟第三方的角度建立模型解决该问题.考虑制造商有关于产品成本的私人信息,销售商有关于销售努力的私人信息,结合数量折扣契约和AGV机制的思想,建立双向激励模型,以实现对供应链企业的激励和协调.结果表明,恰当设置利润调整参数可使该契约满足预算平衡约束、激励约束和个体理性约束,且能够实现一体化供应链的交易量,即该契约能对核心企业缺失下供应链中同时存在道德风险和逆向选择的问题进行激励和协调.最后,用数值算例验证了理论结论.     

Identifying factors for poorer educational outcomes that may be exacerbated by COVID-19: A systematic review focussing on at-risk school children and adolescents

School closures across Australia in response to COVID-19 have persisted since 2020, with rising mental health problems in children and adolescents, alongside rising negative family health and socioeconomic outcomes. Further, some children and young people who were already experiencing disadvantage pre-pandemic may be at heightened risk of poorer educational outcomes. Therefore, the aim of this study was to conduct a systematic review of the literature to identify the factors for poorer educational outcomes that may be exacerbated by COVID-19 amongst disadvantaged school students. Key development stages of disadvantage were identified: young children who started school behind, older students already at risk of disengagement from school and children and young people who have had contact with the child protection system. Five databases were systematically searched, across two search periods. A total of 69 Australian, peer-reviewed articles, published in 2005–2021, examining risk factors for poor educational outcomes for children attending school met the inclusion criteria and were included in final analyses. Our findings provide evidence of key risk factors that make these populations susceptible to worsening outcomes resulting from the COVID-19 pandemic, and of the critical importance of ongoing research to guide policy and practice support for these at-risk groups.     

Conventional and expanded adverse childhood experiences (ACEs) and maternal functioning among low-income Black mothers

A paucity of research has examined the individual and cumulative effects of conventional and expanded adverse childhood experiences (ACEs) on maternal functioning, especially among low-income Black mothers. Using self-report data from a subsample of Black mothers (N = 157) who participated in a larger study to evaluate the effectiveness of an urban public prekindergarten program in the mid-Atlantic region of the United States, we examined the prevalence of ACEs and the individual and cumulative effects of conventional (i.e., family trauma and dysfunction) and expanded (i.e., community stressors) ACEs on depression and health among low-income Black mothers. Findings indicated that Black mothers had more exposure to expanded than conventional ACEs. Hierarchical regression analyses revealed that experience of physical neglect was significantly associated with depression and physical abuse with compromised health, and perceived experience of racism was a predictor of depression and compromised health. More conventional and expanded ACEs were associated with clinical levels of depression and compromised health. Findings highlight the need for more research related to the impact of ACEs, especially expanded ACEs, on mental and behavioural health outcomes. Additionally, our findings indicate the need for more trauma-informed care to reduce and address the impact of individual and community-level adversities on low-income Black mothers.     

The paradoxical role of social class background in the educational and labour market outcomes of the children of immigrants in the UK

Despite predominantly lower social class origins, the second generation of established immigrant groups in the UK are now attaining high levels of education. However, they continue to experience poorer labour market outcomes than the majority population. These worse outcomes are often attributed in part to their disadvantaged origins, which do not, by contrast, appear to constrain their educational success. This paper engages with this paradox. We discuss potential mechanisms for second-generation educational success and how far we might expect these to be replicated in labour market outcomes. We substantiate our discussion with new empirical analysis. Drawing on a unique longitudinal study of England and Wales spanning 40 years and encompassing one per cent of the population, we present evidence on the educational and labour market outcomes of the second generation of four groups of immigrants and the white British majority, controlling for multiple measures of social origins. We demonstrate that second-generation men and women's educational advantage is only partially reflected in the labour market. We reflect on the implications of our findings for future research.     

A Bayesian method for safety signal detection in ongoing blinded randomised controlled trials

Sponsors have a responsibility to minimise risk to participants in clinical studies through safety monitoring. The FDA Final Rule for IND Safety Reporting requires routine aggregate safety evaluation, including in ongoing blinded studies. We are interested in estimating the probability that the true adverse event rate in the experimental arm exceeds that in the control arm. We developed a Bayesian approach that specifies an informative meta-analytic predictive prior on the event probability in the control arm and an uninformative prior on that in the experimental arm. We combined these priors with a mixture likelihood that considers each patient in the ongoing blinded study may belong to the experimental or control arm. This allowed us to estimate the quantity of interest without unblinding. We evaluated our method by simulation, pairing scenarios that differed only in whether a safety signal was present or missing, and quantifying the ability of our model to discriminate using signal detection theory. Our approach shows benefit. It detects safety signals more reliably with greater sample sizes and for common rather than rare events. Performance does not deteriorate markedly when historical studies exhibit heterogeneous hazards or non-constant hazards. Our method will allow us to monitor safety signals in ongoing blinded studies with the goal of earlier identification and risk mitigation. Our method could be adapted to use informative priors on both arms or predictive covariates where pertinent data exist. We stress that ongoing safety monitoring should involve a multi-disciplinary team where statistical methods are paired with medical judgement.     

Costly Bargaining and Renegotiation

We identify the inefficiencies that arise when negotiation between two parties takes place in the presence of transaction costs. First, for some values of these costs it is efficient to reach an agreement but the unique equilibrium outcome is one in which agreement is never reached. Secondly, even when there are equilibria in which an agreement is reached, we find that the model always has an equilibrium in which agreement is never reached, as well as equilibria in which agreement is delayed for an arbitrary length of time. Finally, the only way in which the parties can reach an agreement in equilibrium is by using inefficient punishments for (some of) the opponent's deviations. We argue that this implies that, when the parties are given the opportunity to renegotiate out of these inefficiencies, the only equilibrium outcome that survives is the one in which agreement is never reached, regardless of the value of the transaction costs.     

The role of funding on research and science: The impact of glyphosate herbicides on health and the environment

The objective of this research is to determine the factors that influence the outcomes of previous scientific research on the potential adverse effects of glyphosate-based herbicides (GBH) on human and animal health and the environment. The emphasis is placed on answering the questions about the causal linkages between who funds and performs the research and the research outcomes. A lack of change in use of the GBHs in agriculture stems directly from public (Government) support of the position how the GBHs are safe for humans and the environment. The results of our meta-analysis clearly demonstrate how large and growing majority of influential research on the subject suggests otherwise. Early research on the subject, prior to 2010, done by private and public sector researchers was strongly indicating how GBHs are safe for humans, animals and the environment. It is possible that there is inertia in food safety policy leading to this large gap and disconnect between the results of hundreds of more recent studies and the (current) course of public policy. This study helps us better understand why science on this subject has not been conclusive and thus not the main driver of “science-based” policies about the GBH based production of genetically modified foods. The importance and the implications of this research are obvious: Evidence-based decisions and policies informed by rigorous research and unimpeded by other interested parties are necessary when it comes to developing public policy that affects food safety and in turn human and animal health, and the environment.     

Parental substance misuse and statutory child protection in England: Risk factors and outcomes

Parental substance misuse is a significant child welfare issue and associated with increased risk of child maltreatment. The aim of the present study was to understand what social care outcomes children who live with parental substance misuse have, and to assess factors associated with those social care outcomes over a two-year period. The paper reports on a retrospective longitudinal study of 299 children all living with parental substance misuse and referred to one local authority in England. Data were collected from children's social work case files about procedural social care outcomes and factors which may be associated with those outcomes. Using cluster analysis, a new typology of children's longitudinal trajectories through the children's social care system was developed, consisting of five distinct types. Analysis indicated that some children received too little intervention from children's social care despite ongoing concerns, while other children were potentially unnecessarily caught up in the social care system. Factors associated with children having the poorest outcomes were: caregiver instability resulting from substance misuse, parenting capacity and household instability. The study's findings indicate that some children who live with parental substance misuse are at significant risk of harm, but others are not and may be better supported through non-statutory services such as early help.     

建立我国存款保险机制的构想

分析了国外存款保险制度的正反两方面效用，提出了根据国情，趋利避害，建立中国特色存款保险制度的基本设计：在存款保险机构的组织管理形式、职能、存款保险的范围、投保方式、保费的确立方式以及保险赔偿限额等方面作了一系列构想．     

New configurations of labour insertion processes. The case of secondary technical and vocational education and training students in Chile

This article presents the results of a longitudinal study that followed a sample of 1011 young people who completed their secondary technical and vocational education and training studies in Chile between 2011 and 2016. It adopts a mixed design that combines both quantitative and qualitative methodological strategies to analyse transitions and post-study trajectories. Analysis has helped to identify the prevalence of non-linear and unstructured transitions to the labour market. It has also shown the existence of education-work links and employment alternatives that are generated in certain sectors as well as identified how these give rise to specific opportunity structures that affect on aspirations and career pathways. Results indicate that graduates of the industrial area of study experience more substantive educational integration and labour links following course completion due to greater levels of alignment between their training and the productive demands of the industrial sectors. However, their experiences over the medium term are fragmented and, thus, reflect those of their peers from other areas.