一种具有不确定偏好序信息的多指标群决策方法

针对具有不确定偏好序信息的多指标群决策问题,给出了一种决策分析方法。在本文中,首先对具有不确定偏好序信息的多指标群决策问题进行了描述;然后给出了将不确定偏好序转换为投票数的计算公式;进一步地,依据Bernardo方法的基本思想,根据每个专家给出的不确定偏好序信息,计算相应的投票数并构建群体投票矩阵,并基于群体投票矩阵构建0-1整数规划模型,通过求解模型可得到方案排序结果。最后,通过一个算例以及与已有方法的对比分析说明了本文给出的方法的可行性和有效性。     

Reweighted Smooth Tests of Goodness of Fit

Starting from a smooth test for goodness of fit we develop a method to alter this test to a reweighted smooth test, which has greater power to a certain directional alternative. Whereas the original smooth test gives equal weight to the different directions in the space of alternatives, the reweighted smooth test makes a distinction in importance of the directions. The advantage of this test, as opposed to directional tests, is that the smooth character is largely maintained. We discuss both nested and non nested directional alternatives.     

Computing the distribution of sequential Hölder norms of the Brownian motion

ABSTRACT

In this article, we give explicit formulas and study practical computations for the distribution function of sequential Hölder norms of a Brownian motion and of a Brownian bridge. We also discuss some statistical applications in the detection of some short “epidemic” changes in a sample.     

On Tests Based on Sample Quasi Ranges for Ordered Alternative (Scale Case of Exponential Distribution)

The analysis of categorical response data through the multinomial model is very frequent in many statistical, econometric, and biometric applications. However, one of the main problems is the precise estimation of the model parameters when the number of observations is very low. We propose a new Bayesian estimation approach where the prior distribution is constructed through the transformation of the multivariate beta of Olkin and Liu (2003 Olkin , I. , Liu , R. ( 2003 ). A bivariate beta distribution . Stat. Probab. Lett. 62 : 407 – 412 .[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]). Moreover, the application of the zero-variance principle allows us to estimate moments in Monte Carlo simulations with a dramatic reduction of their variances. We show the advantages of our approach through applications to some toy examples, where we get efficient parameter estimates.     

论选择性罪名的立法基础

选择性罪名是我国刑法典中的一种立法现象。选择性罪名的存在具有合理性和合目的性。其中,合理性主要表现在,选择性罪名是现实生活中犯罪高概率并发性的反映,也是立法者追求刑法条文简约性的表现。合目的性主要表现在,立法者通过选择性罪名的立法设置,可以增强刑法规范对社会生活的涵盖功能,提升刑法规范在行为评价上的信息传递,保证相同性质的犯罪之间法定刑的平衡。     

An alternative response to "The best interests of the child thesis: some thoughts from Australia"

Many of the concerns about recent changes in child welfare services practice in Australia have also been raised in the USA. Although it certainly may be the case that mandatory reporting is causing a broadening of child welfare services in Australia, close data-informed scrutiny suggests that this is not the case in the USA. Further, there are positive alternatives to overly intrusive child welfare service interventions that are arising in the USA. There is reasonable evidence to suggest that too little protection rather than too much intrusion remains the more significant problem in the USA; this may also be true elsewhere. The quality and range of services certainly determines whether intrusion is helpful to children and families. In some cases, for example life-threatening health problems that parents will not or cannot treat, engaging the assistance of child welfare services should not be ruled out for ideological reasons.     

浅析倒签提单的性质

在国际贸易中,托运人为了掩盖自己的违约事实,往往与想要顺利拿到运费的承运人一起共同欺骗收货人,按照早于该票货物实际装船的日期签发提单,实施倒签提单行为。该种行为在很大程度上侵犯了非违约方的合法权利,也阻碍了国际贸易的顺利进行。倒签提单行为的性质,是违约责任与侵权责任竞合。     

3种热平衡积分法结果的比较

运用传统的、改进的和替换的热平衡积分法求解了一维单相融化问题,在不依赖精确解的情况下比较了3种积分方法近似解的精度.结果表明：在固定温度边界条件下选取二次函数近似时,传统的热平衡积分法较改进的和替换的热平衡积分法更准确,随着Stefan数的减小,3种积分法结果的误差都在减小.     

Decision-Making of Mothers in Hong Kong Regarding the Occasional Use of Alternative Child-Care Arrangements

This study examines the use of alternative child-care arrangements as an everyday life decision in a family context. Interviews with twenty-four mothers from a working class neighborhood in a new town in Hong Kong were transcribed and analyzed using a grounded theory approach. Results of the analysis outlined: (a) the structural components of making a decision regarding alternative care, which consisted of demands, resource options, definitions of the situation, types of decision situations, and the respective decision-making strategies; and (b) the nature of decision-making processes, varying from ad hoc to standing. Together, these aspects illuminate how mothers make decisions regarding the use of alternative child-care arrangements and, in turn, the characteristics of family decision-making in everyday life.