Optimal significance levels of prior tests in the presence of multicollinearity

A common approach in estimation is to use the same data to select a model by prior testing as well as to estimate the parameters in the final selection. A problem which arises is that the quadratic risk of such an estimator depends on the significance level of the prior test. The traditional 5 percent level can lead to unacceptably large quadratic risk particularly if the data exhibits high multicollinearity. Two criteria are considered for limiting the quadratic risk. It is shown that these criteria lead to easily calculated and quite accurate rules for determining the critical value of the prior test.     

考虑后悔规避的灰色群体偏离靶心度决策方法

针对指标值、指标权重以及状态概率均为区间灰数的风险型多指标群决策问题，考虑决策者的后悔规避的心理行为，提出基于后悔理论和区间灰数信息的群体偏离靶心度决策方法。该方法将后悔理论融入到群决策过程中，建立了各决策者的综合灰色感知效用矩阵，由此定义了群体灰色正负靶心以及灰色群体偏离靶心度；以灰色群体偏离靶心度综合值最大化为目标、同时结合极大熵原理构建优化模型并解出最优专家权重向量，利用灰色群体偏离靶心度大小对方案进行排序；最后，通过具体算例验证了该方法的有效性和实用性。     

Bayesian and robust Bayesian analysis in a general setting

In this paper we introduce a broad family of loss functions based on the concept of Bregman divergence. We deal with both Bayesian estimation and prediction problems and show that all Bayes solutions associated with loss functions belonging to the introduced family of losses satisfy the same equation. We further concentrate on the concept of robust Bayesian analysis and provide one equation that explicitly leads to robust Bayes solutions. The results are model-free and include many existing results in Bayesian and robust Bayesian contexts in the literature.     

The dangers of using ‘negative durations’ to estimate pre- and post-migration fertility

To keep childbearing that occurs before and after migration separate from each other, many analysts apply a technique that uses ‘negative durations’ to estimate the childbearing risks that migrants have before they migrate. This strategy can lead to incorrect results and should be abandoned. In this research note, we use data for births and internal migration in Sweden to highlight how the two types of behaviour can be kept apart conceptually and analytically without use of ‘negative durations’. The procedures used can easily be generalized to any similarly linked pair of behaviours.     

基于后悔理论的属性趋同效应机理研究

情境效应的机理研究揭示了情境效应是一个多因素驱动的过程,属性趋同效应作为一种新发现的情境效应形式,其内在机理需要进一步探索。研究从情绪角度揭示了预期后悔对属性趋同效应影响的内在机理,揭示了属性同异对消费者预期后悔的显著影响,验证了属性趋同产品的数量对消费者选择属性趋异产品的预期后悔存在着显著的影响,并且验证了感知风险和信息处理模式在该过程中的调节作用。     

Bayesian Inference in Dependent Right Censoring

In this article, we consider dependent right censoring when the lifetime and censoring variables have a Marshall–Olkin bivariate exponential distribution and obtain MLEs, MMEs and UMVUEs of the unknown parameters. The Bayes estimators as well as the Posterior Regret Gamma Minimax (PRGM) estimators of the parameters of interest under the SEL function are also obtained and a Monte Carlo simulation study is carried out to compare these estimators.     

论消费者后悔权制度 ——基于与经营者无因退货许诺的比较分析

消费者后悔权与经营者无因退货许诺产生于不同的社会经济条件并经过了各自的发展历程。在我国,消费者后悔权入法之前,经营者已有了无因退货许诺实践。消费者后悔权是一项法定的消费者权利,也是一项不同于合同法上撤销权和解除权的形成权,而经营者无因退货许诺则表现为民法上的允诺行为,对消费者也构成债法上的请求权。通过对两项制度的比较分析,以揭示它们在价值目标、行使机制等方面的异同性,从而探讨在《中华人民共和国消费者权益保护法》确认消费者后悔权的背景下,两项制度在融合和差异化发展中如何更好地发挥应有的作用。     

Inference based on progressively censored sample from Pareto population

Abstract

In this paper, we assume that the lifetimes have a two-parameter Pareto distribution and discuss some results of progressive Type-II censored sample. We obtain maximum likelihood estimators and Bayes estimators of the unknown parameters under squared error loss and a precautionary loss functions in progressively Type-II censored sample. Robust Bayes estimation of unknown parameters over three different classes of priors under progressively Type-II censored sample, squared error loss, and precautionary loss functions are obtained. We discuss estimation of unknown parameters on competing risks progressive Type-II censoring. Finally, we consider the problem of estimating the common scale parameter of two Pareto distributions when samples are progressively Type-II censored.     

Locked into gambling: anticipatory regret as a motivator for playing the National Lottery

Four hundred and eighty-five people were asked about their intentions to play the National Lottery in England a week prior to the introduction of a new midweek draw. We predicted that those people who played the Saturday game with a regular set of numbers would be more inclined to play the new midweek game than those who had not established a routine of using the same set of numbers. We further predicted that their motivation to play would derive from a feeling of 'anticipatory regret'—a sense that they would find it intolerable to discover their regular numbers had been drawn when they hadn't purchased a ticket. Results supported both of these predictions, and an interpretation of the data is given in terms of the circumstances most likely to trigger such counterfactual reasoning.     

南宁国际民歌节的成功、遗憾与创新——论中国传统民歌文化在当代的传承、发展、繁荣

非民歌、假民歌的副作用在于使民歌原本样式悄然消失的可能性.南宁国际民歌节的巨大成功在于在中国传统民歌处于生存困境的条件下,唤起了更多的人们对民歌的关注,也促进当地经济的发展;南宁国际民歌节留下的遗憾莫过于相当数量非民歌假民歌的涌入使歌节有名不付实之嫌.中国云南纳西古乐名震海外,以及旅游业振兴所带来的民歌文化成为必不可少的旅游大餐的启示表明,南宁国际民歌节创新的可能随时可以转为现实,成为中国传统民歌文化在当代传承发展繁荣的可能.