Empirical likelihood based detection procedure for change point in mean residual life functions under random censorship

The mean residual life (MRL) function is one of the basic parameters of interest in survival analysis that describes the expected remaining time of an individual after a certain age. The study of changes in the MRL function is practical and interesting because it may help us to identify some factors such as age and gender that may influence the remaining lifetimes of patients after receiving a certain surgery. In this paper, we propose a detection procedure based on the empirical likelihood for the changes in MRL functions with right censored data. Two real examples are also given: Veterans' administration lung cancer study and Stanford heart transplant to illustrate the detecting procedure. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

中国文学塑造中狼意象的演变及其文化内涵变迁

在中国传统文学中,狼意象往往是充满负性情感的阴险、狡诈的代名词。21世纪以来,关于狼性的文章作品重新审视了狼意象的基本特征。梳理并勾勒狼意象及其文化内涵的演变,可以更为明晰地辨识出“狼”形象在文学、史学、社会学等文化中所扮演角色的变迁历程,从而改变中国文化中狼意象在较长一段历史时间上的单纯文化内涵,使之重新恢复其多元象征意义。     

Issues in Estimating New Keynesian Phillips Curves in the Presence of Unknown Structural Change

Many articles which have estimated models with forward looking expectations have reported that the magnitude of the coefficients of the expectations term is very large when compared with the effects coming from past dynamics. This has sometimes been regarded as implausible and led to the feeling that the expectations coefficient is biased upwards. A relatively general argument that has been advanced is that the bias could be due to structural changes in the means of the variables entering the structural equation. An alternative explanation is that the bias comes from weak instruments. In this article, we investigate the issue of upward bias in the estimated coefficients of the expectations variable based on a model where we can see what causes the breaks and how to control for them. We conclude that weak instruments are the most likely cause of any bias and note that structural change can affect the quality of instruments. We also look at some empirical work in Castle et al. (2014 Castle, J. L., Doornik, J. A., Hendry, D. F., Nymoen, R. (2014). Misspecification testing: non-invariance of expectations models of inflation. Econometric Reviews 33:5–6, 553–574, doi:10.1080/07474938.2013.825137[Taylor &; Francis Online], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) on the new Kaynesian Phillips curve (NYPC) in the Euro Area and U.S. assessing whether the smaller coefficient on expectations that Castle et al. (2014 Castle, J. L., Doornik, J. A., Hendry, D. F., Nymoen, R. (2014). Misspecification testing: non-invariance of expectations models of inflation. Econometric Reviews 33:5–6, 553–574, doi:10.1080/07474938.2013.825137[Taylor &; Francis Online], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) highlight is due to structural change. Our conclusion is that it is not. Instead it comes from their addition of variables to the NKPC. After allowing for the fact that there are weak instruments in the estimated re-specified model, it would seem that the forward coefficient estimate is actually quite high rather than low.     

计量经济分析何以滥用——知识结构和学术风气的剖析

现代经济学的实证分析和计量应用变得越来越媚俗化和庸俗化,大多数文章甚至都经不起150年前穆勒所提出的证实规则之逻辑检视,更不要说揭示出经济现象间的因果关系。这一学术取向主要源于两大原因:首先,研究者知识结构的日益狭隘,使得他们局限于事物的表象解释而无法深入揭示事物的本质;其次,学术界功利主义的日益盛行,使得他们以商人心态偏向容易被接受的主流化研究方法。当前,上述两大因素还有深厚的社会环境基础,这使得计量实证分析的形式化和庸俗化倾向更为严重。实际上,众多经济学人在对现实社会环境还缺乏基本理解的情况下就牵强附会地运用计量软件来寻找各变量之间的关系,以至所得出的结果根本无助于现象预测或实践指导,由此也就呈现出明显的“下不着地”之风气。     

论审判对象的变更及其控制

在强调诉审分离的近现代诉讼构造下,无论法官还是控诉方,其权力均被设定了合理的界限与范围,体现一种分权制衡的机理,显示一种对被告人防御权利的保障的理路。审判对象发生合理的变更,主要基于两种理路,一是“起诉变更主义”,二是“审判对象狭义论”,进而表现为内容、性质及方式上若干类型的变更。面对审判对象变更,利益受影响最大者是被告人,故而要将审判对象变更控制在合理限度内与正当程序中,有效防范突袭性审判的发生。我国现行审判对象变更实践缺乏合理的控制机制,并常常表现为法院与检察院的一种“沟通”,当务之急是要完善审判对象变更程序,对审判对象变更实行正当性控制。     

“婚变”的背后——浅析《墙头马上》中的悲剧因素

一直以来人们都认为《墙头马上》为一部爱情喜剧,通过对此剧中的悲剧性因素悲剧性行动和悲剧性环境的分析,认为此剧并不是仅仅停留在爱情喜剧的层面,而是一部具有社会性婚姻问题的戏剧.     

英语教学中学生积极情感态度的培养

高中英语新课程标准把"关注情感态度,提高人文素养"作为基本理念之一。着重探讨如何结合高中英语新教材,把培养和发展学生的情感态度融入到教育教学之中。     

扩大中间阶层是构建和谐社会的必要条件

中间阶层实质上是一个经济地位、政治地位和社会地位等各方面介于上层精英阶层和下层大众阶层之间的、具有中等社会经济地位的阶层和群体的集合.扩大中间阶层是构建和谐社会的必要条件.通过运用财政税收政策,大力发展教育和科技,鼓励创业,建立顺畅的社会流动机制等方式壮大我国的中间阶层对促进构建社会主义和谐社会有重要的作用.     

"三元"说之宗宋及其诗学价值指向

"三元"说是陈衍针对今人强分唐宋诗与扬唐抑宋的诗学观所提出的诗学纠偏策略.它以三元皆盛之论,将唐宋诗并列,同时又立足于宋诗,特别以杜、韩、黄为重心,突出宋诗对唐诗的创变与突破,从而确立宋诗地位与特征,对扬唐抑宋诗学观进行纠偏.这一诗学之根本,不在纠缠于诗歌诗艺形式上的高下判别,而关注内容精神之追求.以提倡变风变雅、振兴诗教为旨归,寄寓着关注现实人生的重要的诗学思想.     

国际权力与秩序变革

权力是行为者将其意志强加于其他行为者之上的能力.在任何政治秩序中,权力都是不可或缺的组成部分.世界秩序的变更,是由于该国际体系的现存统治方式与权力的重新分配之间发生了断裂.冷战后国际体系的权力结构发生了重大变革,这就必然导致世界秩序的变革.而世界秩序的和平变革,必须在权力和道德两者之间寻求艰难的妥协.