TESTS FOR SEASONAL DIFFERENCING WITH AN UNKNOWN BREAK-POINT

Some Lagrange multiplier tests for seasonal differencing are proposed; their main objective is to avoid over-differencing due to structural change. The null hypothesis is either the presence of both regular and seasonal unit roots or the presence of a seasonal unit root. Alternative hypotheses allow for stationarity around a possible structural change where the break-point is unknown. The location of the structural change is estimated using the proposed procedures, the asymptotic distribution of the test statistics under the null hypothesis is derived and some useful percentiles are tabulated. An illustrative example based on the Canadian Consumer Price Index is presented.     

Estimation in the multipath change point problem for correlated data

In many experiments, several measurements on the same variable are taken over time, a geographic region, or some other index set. It is often of interest to know if there has been a change over the index set in the parameters of the distribution of the variable. Frequently, the data consist of a sequence of correlated random variables, and there may also be several experimental units under observation, each providing a sequence of data. A problem in ascertaining the boundaries between the layers in geological sedimentary beds is used to introduce the model and then to illustrate the proposed methodology. It is assumed that, conditional on the change point, the data from each sequence arise from an autoregressive process that undergoes a change in one or more of its parameters. Unconditionally, the model then becomes a mixture of nonstationary autoregressive processes. Maximum-likelihood methods are used, and results of simulations to evaluate the performance of these estimators under practical conditions are given.     

关于平均主义与社会公正的研究

本文结合新制度经济学的相关研究成果,分析了平均主义和社会公正的本质和由来,认为正确地认识平均主义和社会公正,有助于解决诸如腐败、两极分化、弱势群体等前进中所存在的一些问题,有助于社会主义市场经济的建立和“小康社会”的全面建设。     

Watching Dutch Change: A Real Time Study of Variation and Change in Standard Dutch Pronunciation

The study investigates phonological variation and change in two varieties of standard Dutch: southern standard Dutch (spoken in Flanders, the northern part of Belgium) and northern standard Dutch (spoken in the Netherlands). A new source for studying language change in progress is introduced: archived recordings of radio broadcasts. The study covers the period from 1935 to 1993. Changes in progress are studied by a combination of insight and techniques from historical linguistics and sociolinguistics. The outcomes of analyzing separate linguistic variables are presented, but the focus of the analysis is on the presence of more general patterns of covariation within the set of linguistic variables and on the possibility of distinguishing (prototypical) temporal and community-based varieties of standard Dutch. The results reveal a pattern of divergence between the two varieties of standard Dutch. The southern variety remained more or less stable between 1935 and 1993. Northern standard Dutch, however, changed substantially.     

农村家庭养老责任人的制度支持要素及其功能

家庭子女是农村养老行为责任实际承担者的观念认知,既是村落共识也是国家规定。 农村家庭养老责任制度由规制性、规范性和文化—认知性三个基础要素构成,其分别通过监督惩戒、价值导向、传递内化机制互为补充合力支持家庭养老责任人践行养老行为。 在农村关于家庭养老责任人的制度变迁过程中,规制性要素的制度支持日趋完善,但规范性与文化—认知要素的支持功效出现衰萎。 未来的农村养老,首先面临的就是责任人数量减少,养老负担加重的问题;养老的制度支持及其方式调整终将成为我国农村社会的“公众议题冶,需要国家与社会未雨绸缪。     

90后女大学生的婚姻态度与主观幸福感的关系研究

为了了解90后女大学生婚姻态度和主观幸福感的现状,揭示90后女大学生婚姻态度与主观幸福感之间的关系,采用婚姻态度量表和总体幸福感量表,对商洛学院和陕西学前师范学院在校的大一、大二、大三的320名女大学生进行调查。结果表明：（1）90后女大学生婚姻态度在父母感情上存在显著差异,但在学校、年级、恋爱经历、生源地、是否独生女和学科背景上不存在显著差异;（2）90后女大学生主观幸福感在年级和是否独生女上存在显著差异,但在学校、恋爱经历、生源地、学科背景和父母感情上不存在显著差异;（3）90后女大学生婚姻态度与主观幸福感呈显著正相关;（4）婚姻态度对主观幸福感具有预测作用。结论：婚姻态度是主观幸福感的影响因素。     

Expected utility without utility

This paper advances an interpretation of Von Neumann-Morgenstern's expected utility model for preferences over lotteries which does not require the notion of a cardinal utility over prizes and can be phrased entirely in the language of probability. According to it, the expected utility of a lottery can be read as the probability that this lottery outperforms another given independent lottery. The implications of this interpretation for some topics and models in decision theory are considered.     

域外国家应对气候变化地方立法实践及中国借鉴

在应对气候变化问题上,国际社会逐渐由政策行动向立法路径转变。中国作为世界最大的温室气体排放国,进行专门立法是提高国家应对气候变化能力的重要举措。在实施路径上,可以考虑首先推动我国地方省市应对气候变化立法先行先试,在借鉴美国、澳大利亚等发达国家地方立法经验的基础上,我国各省市可以根据地方实际,率先进行综合型、减缓型或适应型应对气候变化立法模式选择,确立总体立法框架和监管体制,并进行专项制度与保障机制设计。     

城市化进程中新移民语言态度现状调查研究

城市化进程中,人口频繁流动迁移造成语言生态的急剧变化。从社会语言学角度探究湖南郴州这个三线城市的新移民 对国家通用语（普通话）和区域通用语（家乡话）的语言态度问题,以弥补目前对中小城市新移民语言现状研究的不足。调查发 现：新移民对家乡话的评价在“情感”方面稍高于普通话,在“功能”和“地位”方面则远低于普通话,新移民对自身与子女的普通 话以及对子女说家乡话期望程度较高。调查结果显示出普通话的优势地位和方言的弱势地位及新移民对家乡话纠结矛盾的 心理状态。     

对大学生“翻转课堂”学习态度的调查研究——以学前教育专业学前教育原理课程为例

“翻转课堂”作为一种全新的教学模式不仅适用于中小学的课堂教学,在大学教学中也有所运用。它的运用将改变学习者的学习方式和对学习的态度。基于问卷调查和访谈结果,从学生、教师、学校管理等方面分析影响大学生对“翻转课堂”学习态度的因素,结合“翻转课堂”在学前教育专业课程中的实际应用情况,提出一些改善建议。