印度对华反倾销案愈演愈烈原因、影响及对策

印度作为我国的邻国,两国之间交往源远流长。进入到21世纪后,两国经济发展迅猛,成为重要的对外贸易伙伴,但与此同行的却是日益严重的贸易摩擦。近年来,印度对我国发起越来越多的反倾销案件,有愈演愈烈之势。本文从中印两国的经济发展史说起,探讨了印度对华反倾销加剧的原因,包括印度政府态度、中国经济地位以及中国企业的消极应对表现等。通过分析反倾销的不利影响,力求寻找可行有效的解决策略,为今后中印两国经贸发展创造一个良好的环境。     

Evaluating Probabilistic Forecasts with Bayesian Signal Detection Models

We propose the use of signal detection theory (SDT) to evaluate the performance of both probabilistic forecasting systems and individual forecasters. The main advantage of SDT is that it provides a principled way to distinguish the response from system diagnosticity, which is defined as the ability to distinguish events that occur from those that do not. There are two challenges in applying SDT to probabilistic forecasts. First, the SDT model must handle judged probabilities rather than the conventional binary decisions. Second, the model must be able to operate in the presence of sparse data generated within the context of human forecasting systems. Our approach is to specify a model of how individual forecasts are generated from underlying representations and use Bayesian inference to estimate the underlying latent parameters. Given our estimate of the underlying representations, features of the classic SDT model, such as the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and the area under the ROC curve (AUC), follow immediately. We show how our approach allows ROC curves and AUCs to be applied to individuals within a group of forecasters, estimated as a function of time, and extended to measure differences in forecastability across different domains. Among the advantages of this method is that it depends only on the ordinal properties of the probabilistic forecasts. We conclude with a brief discussion of how this approach might facilitate decision making.     

内向的小佳如何变成孩子王——幼儿交往发展中的家庭影响因素典型个案研究

交往能力在个体终身成长中的作用显著，家庭是影响幼儿交往能力发展的至关重要的环境。本文通过对一则典型案例的调查访谈，梳理分析，揭示了在一个孩子交往行为发展进程中家庭因素的变化，以及可能对幼儿交往行为造成的影响。鲜活生动的事例便于身处其中的幼儿父母、幼教工作者们对照反思，以获取实用的育儿心得，对培养幼儿交往行为的发展具有一定指导和借鉴意义。     

Notes on authors

Social network analysis (SNA), a method which can be used to explore networks in various contexts, has received increasing attention. Drawing on the development of European smoke-free policy, this paper explores how a mixed-method approach to SNA can be utilised to investigate a complex policy network. Textual data from public documents, consultation submissions and websites were extracted, converted and analysed using plagiarism detection software and quantitative network analysis and qualitative data from public documents and 35 interviews were thematically analysed. While the quantitative analysis enabled understanding of the network’s structure and components, the qualitative analysis provided in-depth information about specific actors’ positions, relationships and interactions. The paper establishes that SNA is suited to empirically testing and analysing networks in EU policy-making. It contributes to methodological debates about the antagonism between qualitative and quantitative approaches and demonstrates that qualitative and quantitative network analysis can offer a powerful tool for policy analysis.     

A Program Evaluation of Los Angeles ACORN's Welfare Case Advocacy

SUMMARY

Bureaucratic confusion and client dissatisfaction since the 1996 changes in welfare policy opened opportunities for third party advocacy on behalf of welfare clients. This paper evaluates Los Angeles ACORN's case advocacy program for welfare clients. Outcomes analyzed include client satisfaction with ACORN's advocacy and effects of the program on welfare clients who later became ACORN members. Ninety-one percent of clients surveyed (N = 99) stated they were satisfied with the resolution of their welfare case complaint. Eighty-eight percent of respondents stated ACORN did a better job resolving their problem compared to the welfare department. Unique aspects of the program include peer advocacy and opportunities for welfare recipients to join ACORN and work on welfare policy changes among other issues.     

微型案例在管理教学中的应用

利用微型案例组织教学，使知识性、真实性、趣味性融为一体，有利于促进教学方法的改革，提高学生学习的积极性和主动性，提高学生分析问题和解决问题的能力。     

A comparison of test statistics for the recovery of rapid growth‐based enumeration tests

This paper considers five test statistics for comparing the recovery of a rapid growth‐based enumeration test with respect to the compendial microbiological method using a specific nonserial dilution experiment. The finite sample distributions of these test statistics are unknown, because they are functions of correlated count data. A simulation study is conducted to investigate the type I and type II error rates. For a balanced experimental design, the likelihood ratio test and the main effects analysis of variance (ANOVA) test for microbiological methods demonstrated nominal values for the type I error rate and provided the highest power compared with a test on weighted averages and two other ANOVA tests. The likelihood ratio test is preferred because it can also be used for unbalanced designs. It is demonstrated that an increase in power can only be achieved by an increase in the spiked number of organisms used in the experiment. The power is surprisingly not affected by the number of dilutions or the number of test samples. A real case study is provided to illustrate the theory. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

基于solaris平台的DNS服务器侦测和阻止DOS攻击的实现

DNS服务器所面临的威胁集中表现出了互连网的脆弱性,针对DNS服务器的拒绝服务攻击是DNS服务器面临的最大威胁.提出了一种针对查询攻击进行侦测和阻止的思路,并且在solaris的平台上用perl语言来实现,能够保证DNS服务器有效地抵御常规攻击,为正常用户提供及时的服务.同时,本文也对伪造源IP的分布式拒绝服务攻击提出了一种解决方案.     

论当代中国公益慈善观念的冲突与社会共识的达成——以陈光标事件为切入点的分析

文章通过陈光标事件分析了中国慈善公益观念在动机、方式上的冲突,并指出这些强烈的冲突源自传统慈善观念、计划经济时期慈善观念和西方公益慈善观念的冲突。最后,指出应该鼓励更多资金进入公益领域,对通过公益慈善获得合理的社会声望应该加以认可,并进行丰富公益慈善方式的探索。