能源安全体系建构的理论与实践

在我国能源安全面临的一系列重大问题中，能源领域的政策规划薄弱，法律保障制度建设与管理体制改革滞后，能源供应与能源安全保障体系缺乏相关政策、法律和制度的保障。只有真正做到政策、法律和管理体制“三位一体”，才能确保国家能源安全。本文从能源安全体系建构的理论和实践出发，借鉴西方能源安全战略实践，从政策、法律和管理体制等角度，对我国能源安全体系的内在机制建构进行分析，旨在为我国与中东能源合作提供借鉴与参考。     

Maternal Autonomy- and Connectedness-oriented Parenting Behaviors as Predictors of Children's Social Behaviors in China

The purpose of the study was to examine the contributions of maternal encouragement of autonomy and maternal encouragement of connectedness to the prediction of children's social behaviors. A sample of children (N  =  94), initially aged two years, and their mothers in China participated in the two-year longitudinal study. Child autonomy and connectedness and maternal goal-oriented behaviors were assessed at two years of age through the observation of mother–child interactions. Data on children's social participation, prosocial behavior, aggression, and organization/leadership in peer interactions were collected in a follow-up study when the children were four years of age. It was found that maternal encouragement of connectedness significantly predicted children's sociability and organization/leadership behavior, especially for children who were relatively high on autonomy. The results indicated the developmental significance of socialization goal-oriented behaviors in cultural context.     

浅论近代青海女性社会地位变迁及其原因

近代是青海女性社会地位发生变迁的时期,本文从女性形体观的转变、女性教育等方面,论述了近代青海女性社会地位的变迁及其原因。     

唐宋时期回族先民对西北商业经济的开发与贡献

重视商业经济,是伊斯兰教的特点之一。唐宋时期,伴随着伊斯兰教的传入,回族先民对西北商业经济进行了开发。他们一方面继承了阿拉伯商业的传统,另一方面在新的环境下,又有所创新、有所发展。在长期不断的开发中,为西北区域经济的繁荣与发展,做出了重要的贡献。     

A nonparametric hypothesis test for heteroscedasticity

In this paper, a hypothesis test for heteroscedasticity is proposed in a nonparametric regression model. The test statistic, which uses the residuals from a nonparametric fit of the mean function, is based on an adaptation of the well-known Levene's test. Using the recent theory for analysis of variance when the number of factor levels goes to infinity, the asymptotic distribution of the test statistic is established under the null hypothesis of homocedasticity and under local alternatives. Simulations suggest that the proposed test performs well in several situations, especially when the variance is a nonlinear function of the predictor.     

A Comparison of Topography-based and Selection-based Verbal Behavior in Typically Developed Children and Developmentally Disabled Persons with Autism

This study is a replication of Sundberg and Sundberg (1990) that compared topography-based verbal behavior with selection-based verbal behavior in terms of acquisition, accuracy, and testing for the emergence of a new verbal relation. Participants were three typical children and three developmentally disabled persons with autism. The study sought to determine which paradigm (topography-based or selection-based) resulted in more rapid acquisition of tacts and intraverbals, which was associated with the fewest errors, and which paradigm resulted in the emergence of the highest number of new verbal relations. The results of the study showed that the six participants performed quite differently from one another. Most importantly, the results from the person with autism contradicted previous findings favoring selection-based verbal behavior over topography-based approaches for teaching verbal behavior to low-functioning individuals.     

State transition modeling of complex monitored health data

This article considers the analysis of complex monitored health data, where often one or several signals are reflecting the current health status that can be represented by a finite number of states, in addition to a set of covariates. In particular, we consider a novel application of a non-parametric state intensity regression method in order to study time-dependent effects of covariates on the state transition intensities. The method can handle baseline, time varying as well as dynamic covariates. Because of the non-parametric nature, the method can handle different data types and challenges under minimal assumptions. If the signal that is reflecting the current health status is of continuous nature, we propose the application of a weighted median and a hysteresis filter as data pre-processing steps in order to facilitate robust analysis. In intensity regression, covariates can be aggregated by a suitable functional form over a time history window. We propose to study the estimated cumulative regression parameters for different choices of the time history window in order to investigate short- and long-term effects of the given covariates. The proposed framework is discussed and applied to resuscitation data of newborns collected in Tanzania.     

Bayesian t-tests for correlations and partial correlations

In this paper, we develop Bayes factor based testing procedures for the presence of a correlation or a partial correlation. The proposed Bayesian tests are obtained by restricting the class of the alternative hypotheses to maximize the probability of rejecting the null hypothesis when the Bayes factor is larger than a specified threshold. It turns out that they depend simply on the frequentist t-statistics with the associated critical values and can thus be easily calculated by using a spreadsheet in Excel and in fact by just adding one more step after one has performed the frequentist correlation tests. In addition, they are able to yield an identical decision with the frequentist paradigm, provided that the evidence threshold of the Bayesian tests is determined by the significance level of the frequentist paradigm. We illustrate the performance of the proposed procedures through simulated and real-data examples.     

主观感知还是客观责任? ——中国农民工作回报期望影响因素研究

理清农民工作回报期望的影响因素进而精准施策,对于破解城乡发展不平衡和满足农民对美好生活的向往意义重大。利用Multinomial Logistic模型和CGSS2015相关数据的实证研究结论发现:以主观社会经济地位和外出务工经历为代表的主观感知性因素是影响农民工作回报期望的关键,而以养老责任和未成年子女数量为代表的客观责任因素的影响则不显著。同时,受教育程度也是影响农民工作回报期望的重要因素,受教育程度为初中及以下的农民对生理回报和安全回报有更强烈的诉求。