Supply chain configuration conundrum: how does the pharmaceutical industry mitigate disturbance factors?

How a supply chain (SC) is configured can have a significant impact on the performance of global firms. More specifically, disturbance factors (i.e. those factors associated with uncertainty and risk) are increasingly important considerations. This paper focuses on endogenous, exogenous and environment-related SC disturbance factors and their relative importance when configuring global SCs. Three alternative scenarios of SC configurations for European-based pharmaceutical firms are identified – insource nearshore, outsource nearshore and outsource offshore. Through a multi-phase, mixed-methods approach we find that the top five disturbance factors managers should be aware of while configuring their SCs are quality defects, unforeseen and random interruptions in manufacturing processes, order processing difficulties, untimely delivery of products and a mismatch between market demand and supplier responsiveness. This study is able to provide insights into the impact of disturbance factors on the SC configuration strategy for Big Pharmas (BPs). We show that SC disturbances influenced the decision to bring production back home (reshoring) or to a closer location (nearshoring). To mitigate the effects of disturbances many BPs recalibrated their SC configurations by insourcing core products, outsourcing non-core products offshore and developing offshore insourcing capabilities through ‘captives’.     

Estimation for aggregate models: The aggregate Markov chain

An argument in favour of projecting the score function for models involving incomplete data is presented. Projection is then applied to the aggregate Markov-chain model resulting in weighted least-squares estimators. The limit theory and efficiency of these estimators are studied using martingale limit theory.     

非齐次马尔可夫链的可逆性

本文研究了可数状态空间非齐次马氏链的可逆性,得出了非齐次马链可逆的充要条件。     

A latent Markov model for detecting patterns of criminal activity

Summary.  The paper investigates the problem of determining patterns of criminal behaviour from official criminal histories, concentrating on the variety and type of offending convictions. The analysis is carried out on the basis of a multivariate latent Markov model which allows for discrete covariates affecting the initial and the transition probabilities of the latent process. We also show some simplifications which reduce the number of parameters substantially; we include a Rasch-like parameterization of the conditional distribution of the response variables given the latent process and a constraint of partial homogeneity of the latent Markov chain. For the maximum likelihood estimation of the model we outline an EM algorithm based on recursions known in the hidden Markov literature, which make the estimation feasible also when the number of time occasions is large. Through this model, we analyse the conviction histories of a cohort of offenders who were born in England and Wales in 1953. The final model identifies five latent classes and specifies common transition probabilities for males and females between 5-year age periods, but with different initial probabilities.     

Bayesian identifiability and misclassification in multinomial data

The authors consider the Bayesian analysis of multinomial data in the presence of misclassification. Misclassification of the multinomial cell entries leads to problems of identifiability which are categorized into two types. The first type, referred to as the permutation‐type nonidentifiabilities, may be handled with constraints that are suggested by the structure of the problem. Problems of identifiability of the second type are addressed with informative prior information via Dirichlet distributions. Computations are carried out using a Gibbs sampling algorithm.     

清代前期赣关的商品流通

清代赣关地处大庾岭商路的要道。清代前期,清政府为了维持赣关的正常运转,力图从制度方面进行管理,这客观上促进了区域商品经济的发展。经过赣关中转的商品种类繁多,使得赣州成为赣湘粤闽四省边际区域的商品集散要津,也一定程度上促进了赣南地区乃至江西与周边各省贸易。     

Reducing Periodicity of Fuzzy Markov Chains Based on Simulation Using Halton Sequence

We first introduce fuzzy finite Markov chains and present some of their fundamental properties based on possibility theory. We also bring in a way to convert fuzzy Markov chains to classic Markov chains. In addition, we simulate fuzzy Markov chain using different sizes. It is observed that the most of fuzzy Markov chains not only do have an ergodic behavior, but also they are periodic. Finally, using Halton quasi-random sequence we generate some fuzzy Markov chains, which are compared with the ones generated by the RAND function of MATLAB. Therefore, we improve the periodicity behavior of fuzzy Markov chains.     

The Asymptotic Behavior of INAR (p) Models

An integer-valued autoregressive model with random time delay under random environment is presented. The geometric ergodicity of the iterative sequence determined by this new model is discussed. Moreover, sufficient conditions for stationarity and β-mixing property with exponential decay for the INAR model with random time delay under random environment are developed.     

贸易商品国际竞争力检验方法的探讨

针对现有文献中TC指数定义和计算方法的分歧进行了辨析 ,从实证的角度对TC指数分布区间作出了确切的估计。此外 ,还从理论和实证的角度 ,对进口比较优势的界定和测定方法进行了探讨 ,并对一国在经济全球化的进程中 ,如何更好地发挥进口商品的比较优势 ,分别从生产要素禀赋、价格、技术先进性的角度进行了分析。     

基于供应链的中国制药企业研发能力的研究

从目前中国医药供应链运行的角度出发，深入分析了制药企业研发能力薄弱的原因。提出了制药企业研发动能、研发势能以及研发总能量等概念，并基于该理论提出了以制药企业为核心、基于供应链的新药研发创新模式。最后给出了相关建议和对策。