Deterministic Approximation of Stochastic Evolution in Games

This paper provides deterministic approximation results for stochastic processes that arise when finite populations recurrently play finite games. The processes are Markov chains, and the approximation is defined in continuous time as a system of ordinary differential equations of the type studied in evolutionary game theory. We establish precise connections between the long‐run behavior of the discrete stochastic process, for large populations, and its deterministic flow approximation. In particular, we provide probabilistic bounds on exit times from and visitation rates to neighborhoods of attractors to the deterministic flow. We sharpen these results in the special case of ergodic processes.     

跨国双向供应链物流合作模型分析

针对中欧班列去回程商品双向流动的现实问题，构建了跨国双向供应链的物流合作模型。考虑境内外物流公司搭建合作平台，通过制定激励策略来缩小双向运量差和提升运载总量，对比物流非合作与物流合作下的双向供应链运作以及平台的激励作用，为中欧班列的市场化运营提供微观运作基础。研究发现：物流合作平台的建立在达到自身激励目标的同时还提高了供应链整体收益，有利于推动中欧班列市场化运营，但是，缩小运量差与提升运量总量这两个激励目标之间存在一定的“对冲效应”。     

The globalization of production,national labour regulations and income inequality in the global North and South, 1980–2013

A central concern over global value chains (GVCs) is whether the integration of national firms into GVCs exacerbates income inequality within countries. However, despite decades of research, the distributional consequences of GVCs remain unclear in the empirical literature. Drawing on panel data from 96 countries between 1980 and 2013, we examine the effects of GVC integration on market income inequality and whether national labour regulations moderate these effects. We find integration increases inequality in the global North and South. More importantly, we find labour regulations amplify the inequality effects of integration in Southern countries by expanding the size of the informal sector while suppressing these effects in Northern countries by promoting unionization. This suggests institutional power from national labour regulations may enhance the bargaining power of labour in the North through increasing collective resources while disempowering labour in the South through reinforcing labour market segmentation between formal and informal sectors.     

Longitudinal network models and permutation-uniform Markov chains

Consider longitudinal networks whose edges turn on and off according to a discrete-time Markov chain with exponential-family transition probabilities. We characterize when their joint distributions are also exponential families with the same parameter, improving data reduction. Further we show that the permutation-uniform subclass of these chains permit interpretation as an independent, identically distributed sequence on the same state space. We then apply these ideas to temporal exponential random graph models, for which permutation uniformity is well suited, and discuss mean-parameter convergence, dyadic independence, and exchangeability. Our framework facilitates our introducing a new network model; simplifies analysis of some network and autoregressive models from the literature, including by permitting closed-form expressions for maximum likelihood estimates for some models; and facilitates applying standard tools to longitudinal-network Markov chains from either asymptotics or single-observation exponential random graph models.     

新时代如何提升产业链供应链韧性和安全水平

当前，统筹发展和安全问题被提到了前所未有的新高度，直接关乎我国的高质量发展。因此，在对我国产业链供应链韧性和安全面临的内外部风险与挑战进行系统研判的基础上，从四个方面提出了新时代提升我国产业链供应链韧性与安全水平的对策建议：第一，维护产业链供应链的全球公共产品属性，利用国际循环“延链”“稳链”;第二，构建“以我为主”的区域产业链供应链体系，积极寻求破解国际围堵的有效路径；第三，破除国内大循环堵点、卡点，立足全国统一大市场赋能“补链”“强链”;第四，加速提升自主创新能力，构建产业链供应链协同创新机制。     

传统与变迁——从80年代农村改革小说看农民社会文化心理的嬗变

80年代是农民社会文化心理转型的阵痛时期,在农民由传统向现代转变的过程中,精神的震荡和冲突集中表现在三个方面:一是土地观念的转变。逐步挣脱土地的精神束缚,建立起与土地的新型关系。二是商品意识的觉醒。商品经济的发展极大地扩展了农民的心理空间,农民由自给自足型农民转向市场型农民,标志着农民从传统向现代的嬗变。三是道德上的困惑与迷惘。自我意识的觉醒促进了道德观念的进步,但人们更多的还是困惑与迷惘:道德转型中理想与现实、情感与理性的冲突;“以恶抗恶”者的道德自省与困惑;欲望的泛滥与道德的乏力。而农民社会文化心理的变迁归根结底在于传统文化的变迁。     

Power and inequality in global value chains: Advancing the research agenda

Power is a central, but largely undertheorized, concept for scholars of global value chains (GVCs). In this introduction to a special issue on power and inequality in GVCs, the authors summarize the key insights from the articles gathered here and explain how the collection advances our understanding of the types and forms of power operating in GVCs and their effect on different dimensions of inequality.     

Global decisions versus local realities: Sustainability standards,priorities and upgrading dynamics in agricultural global production networks

Voluntary sustainability standards (VSSs) in global production networks (GPNs) have grown significantly in prominence. Existing research largely assumed that VSSs create linear upgrading outcomes for all GPN actors and has studied VSSs from the point of adoption in the GPNs, rather than a broader range of stages in their lifecycle. To address these limitations, and building on literature around power and agency in GPNs, we develop the constellation of priorities (CoP) model to unpack the diverse and often diverging boardroom (Northern lead firm) and local (Southern supplier) priorities involved in such standards. Through in-depth fieldwork on horticulture in Kenya and cocoa in Nicaragua across the VSS lifecycle, we find significant divergences in priorities between farmer groups in both countries and lead firms in the UK and Germany. We demonstrate analytically and empirically that diverging priorities coupled with power asymmetries produced contestations, leading to simultaneous economic and environmental downgrading, and social upgrading.     

以绿色发展引领乡村振兴——民族山区绿色农业产业链的形成机理与演进路径

坚持绿色兴农,构建绿色农业产业链是民族山区实现乡村振兴的重要途径。通过剖析绿色农业产业链的基本特点与组织特征,从制度变迁和比较利益增加视角阐述了民族山区绿色农业产业链的形成机理。在此基础上,从降低交易成本、缓释信息不对称、增强技术供给等方面提出民族山区绿色农业产业链发展对策,以期以绿色发展引领民族山区乡村振兴。