The analysis of ratios and cross-product ratios of poisson variates with application to incidence rates

The incidence of most diseases is low enough that in. large populations the number of new cases may be considered a Poisson variate. This paper explores models and methods for analyzing such data Specific cases are the estimation and testing of ratios and the cross-product ratios, both simple and stratified* We assume the Poisson means are exponential functions of the relevant parameters. The resulting sets of sufficient statistics are partitioned into a test statistic and a vector of statistics related to the nuisance parameters . The methods derived are based on the conditional distribution of the test statistic given the other sufficient statistics. The analyses of stratified cross-product ratios are seen to be analogues of the noncentral distribution associated with theanalysis of the common odds ratio in several 2×2 tables. The various methods are illustrated in numerical examples involving incidence rates of cancer in two metropolitan areas adjusting for both age and sex.     

The conditional level of confidence intervals for the normal variance and applications

Suppose we observe two independent random vectors each having a multivariate normal distribution with covariance matrix known up to an unknown scale factor σ . The first random vector has a known mean vector while the second has an unknown mean vector. Interest centers around finding confidence intervals for σ² with confidence coefficient 1 ? α. Standard results show that, when we only observe the first random vector, an optimal (i.e., smallest length) confidence interval C, based on the well-known chi- squared statistic, can be constructed for σ² . When we additionally observe the second random vector, the confidence interval C is no longer optimal for estimating σ². One criterion useful for detecting the non-optimality of a confidence interval C concerns whether C admits positively or negatively biased relevant subsets. This criterion has recently received a good deal of attention. It is shown here that under some conditions the confidence interval C admits positively biased relevant subsets.

Applications of this result to the construction of ‘better‘ unconditional confidence intervals for σ² are presented. Some simulation results are given to indicate the typical extent of improvement attained.     

Fourth-order moments of augmented arch processes

This paper is concerned with establishing the correspondence between the fourth- order moments structure and the parametric representation for augmented ARCH processes. In an introduction, the possible types of fourth-order moments are classified and some tentative interpretation for each class is given. Then, algebraic formulae are developed that permit the calculation of all fourth- order cross moments that are possibly non-zero within the AARCH class on the basis of known AARCH parameters. These formulae are useful for evaluating properties of estimated AARCH models, if estimation is conducted via maximum likelihood methods or approximations, and also for possible use in method-of-moments estimation.     

Approximate conditional inference and the linear functional model

Approximate conditional inference is developed for the slope parameter of the linear functional model with two variables. It is shown that the model can be transformed so that the slope parameter becomes an angle and nuisance parameters are radial distances. If the nuisance parameters are known an exact confidence interval based on a location-type conditional distribution is available for the angle. More gen¬erally, confidence distributions are used to average the conditional distribution over the nuisance parameters yielding an approximate conditional confidence interval that reflects the precision indicated by the data. An example is analyzed.     

Saddlepoint approximations to exact tests and improved likelihood ratio tests for the gamma distribution

For the most common one-sample and two-sample tests in the gamma distribution we derive the log likelihood ratio tests and the improved versions obtained by a Bartlett adjustment. For most of these tests an exact test exists and we give the saddlepoint approximation to the latter. The tests are compared with previously published tests and a small simulation study is included.     

Information loss on the mean for spatial processes when some values are missing

The loss of information on the mean due to the presence of missing values is discussed for a Gaussian univariate process on a rectangular lattice. The exact as well as the approximate formulae for this loss are given for general conditional autoregressive (CAR) and simultaneous autoregressive (SAR) processes. The formulae are evaluated for some low order CAR and SAR processes. The approximate formula is shown to give a good insight into how the loss varies over the different configurations of missing sites.     

Estimation of parameters of yamada et al. model and modification of the model

Yamada, Ohba and Osaki (1983) suggested an important NHPP model for software failure phenomenon. So far little work has been done on the problem of estimating its parameters. We present here some conditions for the likelihood estimates to be finite, positive and unique. We also suggest a modification of the model. The performance measures and statistical inferences of the modified model are discussed here. The modified model is applied to software failure data and the results are compared with Jelinski-Moranda [4] and some existing important NHPP models     

Dynamic Equicorrelation

A new covariance matrix estimator is proposed under the assumption that at every time period all pairwise correlations are equal. This assumption, which is pragmatically applied in various areas of finance, makes it possible to estimate arbitrarily large covariance matrices with ease. The model, called DECO, involves first adjusting for individual volatilities and then estimating correlations. A quasi-maximum likelihood result shows that DECO provides consistent parameter estimates even when the equicorrelation assumption is violated. We demonstrate how to generalize DECO to block equicorrelation structures. DECO estimates for U.S. stock return data show that (block) equicorrelated models can provide a better fit of the data than DCC. Using out-of-sample forecasts, DECO and Block DECO are shown to improve portfolio selection compared to an unrestricted dynamic correlation structure.     

Analysing nonlinear time series with central subspace

Traditionally, time series analysis involves building an appropriate model and using either parametric or nonparametric methods to make inference about the model parameters. Motivated by recent developments for dimension reduction in time series, an empirical application of sufficient dimension reduction (SDR) to nonlinear time series modelling is shown in this article. Here, we use time series central subspace as a tool for SDR and estimate it using mutual information index. Especially, in order to reduce the computational complexity in time series, we propose an efficient estimation method of minimal dimension and lag using a modified Schwarz–Bayesian criterion, when either of the dimensions and the lags is unknown. Through simulations and real data analysis, the approach presented in this article performs well in autoregression and volatility estimation.     

Modelling asymmetric volatility dynamics by multivariate BL-GARCH models

The class of Multivariate BiLinear GARCH (MBL-GARCH) models is proposed and its statistical properties are investigated. The model can be regarded as a generalization to a multivariate setting of the univariate BL-GARCH model proposed by Storti and Vitale (Stat Methods Appl 12:19–40, 2003a; Comput Stat 18:387–400, 2003b). It is shown how MBL-GARCH models allow to account for asymmetric effects in both conditional variances and correlations. An EM algorithm for the maximum likelihood estimation of the model parameters is derived. Furthermore, in order to test for the appropriateness of the conditional variance and covariance specifications, a set of robust conditional moments test statistics are defined. Finally, the effectiveness of MBL-GARCH models in a risk management setting is assessed by means of an application to the estimation of the optimal hedge ratio in futures hedging.