青少年犯罪及治理对策

青少年犯罪是当今社会普遍关注的问题 ,来自家庭、学校、社会的负面影响 ,致使青少年犯罪日益增多。就青少年犯罪的特点和原因进行分析 ,提出实施四个预防和三个工程是治理青少年犯罪的有效途径。     

Falling into the existential abyss: Ivan Franko’s realist prose in experiments with Gothic and crime fiction modes

This article examines three novels by Ukrainian realist Ivan Franko (1856–1916): Dlia domashn'oho ohnyshcha (For the Home Hearth, 1892), Osnovy suspil'nosti (Pillars of Society, 1894), and Perekhresni stezhky (Fateful Crossroads, 1900). Previous scholars saw elements of crime fiction in these works, but the actual relationship between the two genres of crime fiction and realism has not been fully developed. By studying the conventions of crime fiction, along with its antecedent, the Gothic, and their influence on Franko, the author shows the make-up of the early Ukrainian crime fiction genre and points to its importance in understanding Franko’s vacillation between realist and modernist tendencies. As she argues, the scales of his vacillation are tipped toward modernism in its decadent form, an existential void that characterized fin de siècle Europe. Hence, Franko’s “ideal” or programmatic realism (defined by Franko as a literary style with a didactic tendency aimed at educating society), which he introduced under the appealing cover of crime and Gothic motifs, ultimately failed him. The author proposes that it is the creative modes (Gothic and crime fiction) that Franko chose for voicing his ideas about social reforms that led him, unsuspectingly, away from his programmatic goal and toward the decadent aspects of modernism.     

Retrospective change detection in categorical time series

The aim of this paper is to propose methods of detecting change in the coefficients of a multinomial logistic regression model for categorical time series offline. The alternatives to the null hypothesis of stationarity can be either the hypothesis that it is not true, or that there is a temporary change in the sequence. We use the efficient score vector of the partial likelihood function. This has several advantages. First, the alternative value of the parameter does not have to be estimated; hence, we have a procedure that has a simple structure with only one parameter estimation using all available observations. This is in contrast with the generalized likelihood ratio-based change point tests. The efficient score vector is used in various ways. As a vector, its components correspond to the different components of the multinomial logistic regression model’s parameter vector. Using its quadratic form a test can be defined, where the presence of a change in any or all parameters is tested for. If there are too many parameters one can test for any subset while treating the rest as nuisance parameters. Our motivating example is a DNA sequence of four categories, and our test result shows that in the published data the distribution of the four categories is not stationary.     

Improving the detection of unusual observations in high‐dimensional settings

Multivariate control charts are used to monitor stochastic processes for changes and unusual observations. Hotelling's T² statistic is calculated for each new observation and an out‐of‐control signal is issued if it goes beyond the control limits. However, this classical approach becomes unreliable as the number of variables p approaches the number of observations n, and impossible when p exceeds n. In this paper, we devise an improvement to the monitoring procedure in high‐dimensional settings. We regularise the covariance matrix to estimate the baseline parameter and incorporate a leave‐one‐out re‐sampling approach to estimate the empirical distribution of future observations. An extensive simulation study demonstrates that the new method outperforms the classical Hotelling T² approach in power, and maintains appropriate false positive rates. We demonstrate the utility of the method using a set of quality control samples collected to monitor a gas chromatography–mass spectrometry apparatus over a period of 67 days.     

Gendered Movement: Negotiating Youth,Sex and Harm in the US Carceral State

Exempt from the current bipartisan reassessment of the US carceral state are people with convictions for sex offenses. While movements against public registries for sex offenders are scant, a grassroots movement is underway. This article offers a preliminary analysis of the complex consequence of women's political work to extract their sons from the US carceral state. This gendered advocacy is mapped against shifts in the racialised US criminal justice system, where the fluid category of child/juvenile is often unavailable to youth of colour and/or queer youth, and criminalisation is offered to regulate sexuality, consent, age and potential harm.     

On robustness of the Shiryaev–Roberts change-point detection procedure under parameter misspecification in the post-change distribution

The gist of the quickest change-point detection problem is to detect the presence of a change in the statistical behavior of a series of sequentially made observations, and do so in an optimal detection-speed-versus-“false-positive”-risk manner. When optimality is understood either in the generalized Bayesian sense or as defined in Shiryaev's multi-cyclic setup, the so-called Shiryaev–Roberts (SR) detection procedure is known to be the “best one can do”, provided, however, that the observations’ pre- and post-change distributions are both fully specified. We consider a more realistic setup, viz. one where the post-change distribution is assumed known only up to a parameter, so that the latter may be misspecified. The question of interest is the sensitivity (or robustness) of the otherwise “best” SR procedure with respect to a possible misspecification of the post-change distribution parameter. To answer this question, we provide a case study where, in a specific Gaussian scenario, we allow the SR procedure to be “out of tune” in the way of the post-change distribution parameter, and numerically assess the effect of the “mistuning” on Shiryaev's (multi-cyclic) Stationary Average Detection Delay delivered by the SR procedure. The comprehensive quantitative robustness characterization of the SR procedure obtained in the study can be used to develop the respective theory as well as to provide a rational for practical design of the SR procedure. The overall qualitative conclusion of the study is an expected one: the SR procedure is less (more) robust for less (more) contrast changes and for lower (higher) levels of the false alarm risk.     

Sexual Orientation in State Hate Crime Laws: Exploring Social Construction and Criminal Law

Several studies have described and analyzed the development and diffusion of hate crime laws in the United States, but none specifically examined state-level differences in protected categories. Forty-five of the 50 states have a hate crime statute, but only 30 of those include sexual orientation. In this study the social construction framework is applied to the hate crime policy domain in order to determine whether or not variations in the social and political status of gays and lesbians are associated with the inclusion of sexual orientation in state hate crime laws. Content analysis of daily newspapers in six states revealed that a positive social construction is associated with groups seeking hate crime law protections, and that political influence may also be a key factor.     

Teachers’ Knowledge and Beliefs About Child Sexual Abuse

Child sexual abuse is one of the main types of abuse still to be addressed within the field of education, yet the education system itself can serve as a primary tool for its prevention. A better understanding of teachers’ knowledge and beliefs about child sexual abuse will allow us to establish key starting points from which to utilize the system for prevention. Four hundred and fifty teachers participated in this study, completing a questionnaire regarding their knowledge and beliefs about child sexual abuse. The study revealed that over half the teachers, 65.3% (n = 294), had never received any type of training in child sexual abuse education and that the majority were not familiar with methods of identifying child sexual abuse, 90.7% (n = 279). Various mistaken beliefs were identified among the participating teachers, such as pathological profiles of abusers, that the vast majority of child sexual abuse implies violent behavior, and that there cannot be abusers the same age as the victim. These results indicate that knowledge deficiencies do exist about child sexual abuse among teachers and highlight the need for training in this field.     

Self‐Esteem,the Fear of Crime,and the Decision to Protect Oneself From Victimization

This research extends prior work that examines self‐esteem as an outcome of protective behaviors against crime victimization by focusing instead on the moderating influence of self‐esteem on the relationship between the fear of crime and the decision to protect oneself from victimization. The fear of crime is conceptualized as two separate components (fear of victimization and perceived risk) in accordance with prior work. Self‐esteem is conceptualized as three separate components (worth, efficacy, and authenticity), and measured with a recently designed instrument for capturing each aspect of self‐esteem separately. Data are collected through surveys of a population at high risk for victimization (undergraduate college students). Logistic regression analyses demonstrate that self‐esteem does play a role for deciding whether to engage in protective behaviors, and that the specific components of self‐esteem moderate defensive behavioral outcomes differently. Specifically, the self‐worth, self‐efficacy, and authenticity components of self‐esteem influence the decision to carry protection, but not the decision to take a self‐defense class. Implications for both the fear of crime and self‐esteem literatures are addressed.