Feeling at Risk Matters: Water Managers and the Decision to Use Forecasts

Experts contend that weather and climate forecasts could have an important role in risk management strategies for community water systems. Yet, most water managers make minimal use of these forecasts. This research explores the determinants of the use of weather and climate forecasts by surveying managers of community water systems in two eastern American states (South Carolina and the Susquehanna River Basin of Pennsylvania). Assessments of the reliability of weather and climate forecasts are not driving their use as water managers who find forecasts reliable are no more likely to use them than are managers who find them unreliable. Although larger systems and those depending on surface water are more likely to use forecasts for some (but not all) purposes, the strongest determinant of forecast use is risk perceptions. Water managers who expect to face problems from weather events in the next decade are much more likely to use forecasts than are water managers who expect few problems. Their expectations of future problems are closely linked with past experience: water managers who have had problems with specific types of weather events (e.g., flood emergencies) in the last 5 years are likely to expect to experience problems in the next decade. Feeling at risk, regardless of the specific source of that weather-related risk, stimulates a decision to use weather and climate forecasts.     

一类刚性系统基于线性多步法的并行计算方法

针对一类分解的刚性系统,提出了一类并行组合方法.该方法将系统分割与方法分割的并行化方法相结合,采用显式线性多步方法求解非刚性子系统,采用隐式线性多步方法求解刚性子系统.讨论了方法的相容阶、收敛性和数值稳定性.数值试验结果表明,该方法对于求解分解的刚性系统是可行的.     

Voices in discourses: Dialogism, Critical Discourse Analysis and ethnic identity

In this article we attempt to combine the Bakhtinian, dialogical philosophy of language and critical discourse analysis (CDA) with our analysis of ethnic identity. The data we discuss are an interview with a Sami journalist who works in the Sami media. We analyse the interview from the points of view of dialogism and CDA to illustrate how identity must be understood as something which is both individual and social in nature. We reject the earlier essentialist interpretations of identity which see it as purely individual and psychological in nature. At the same time, we argue that those views of identity that see it as exclusively socially constructed can be misleading as well. We aim to illustrate our individual‐cum‐social viewpoint by discussing how identity is represented through a variety of voices and a variety of discourses. We discuss ethnic identity as related both to social level discourses that our subject drew on – such as the discourses of the journalistic profession or ethnicity and to 'voices' that bear witness to his experiences as an individual and his individual life course.     

基于批判性思维的信息素养教育

批判性思维在信息素养中有着极其重要的作用,这种作用表现为分析与评价信息的清晰性与正确性、准确性与相关性、广度与深度、含义与重要性以及信息的道德合法使用等,并最终做出指导信仰与行动的判断。因此培养学生信息素养的一个关键是发展他们的批判性思维,向每一个学生提供的应该是基于批判性思维的信息素养教育,这种教育促使学生把批判性思维应用到他们熟悉与关切的现实生活中去。     

关于MBA教学评价的两个问题

文章对 MBA教学评价的相关因素进行了分析 ,提出 MBA学生应成为该评价的主要执行者。同时 ,还讨论了建立 MBA教学评价体系的原则 ,并对中、美教学评价体系进行了对比分析以说明其间的区别。     

Cognition and uncertainty

In the first part, we try to give a representation of the process by which man endeavours to grasp uncertainty. We propose a backward exploration which we will modelize through an influence diagram and then we can draw a few conclusions from that representation for the axiomatics of Decision.In the second part, we deal with the processing of the information formatted in such a way, regarding both its temporal complexity and its elective complexity.The first part as the second one dealing with representation and the consequences for information processing of uncertainty cognition lead to a severe criticism of the expected utility hypothesis.To conclude, we suggest a few remarks on expert systems of decision aid under uncertainty.     

人的两重性和教育的两重性——康德教育哲学思想探析

康德的教育哲学思想是其批判哲学体系的重要组成部分。康德从物的两重性引申出入的两重性,又从人的两重性引申出教育的两重性;在此基础上,他把教育哲学的重点放在道德领域,将人的自由意志与服从道德律的意志等同起来,强调意志的自律、道德义务感的养成。康德的哲学教育思想对近代西方及中国的教育哲学思想产生了深远的影响,即使在今天也具有重要的启示意义。     

临界二元村临界输入的一种启发式排序方法

临界二元树ＣＢＴ（ｃｒｉｔｉｃａｌＢｉｎａｒｙＴｒｅｅ）作为描述电路功能的一种方法，可以用于呆滞型故障模型的电路功能级测试生成。其基于知识的树结构特别适用于专家系统环境［１］。然而ＣＢＴ的大小取决于临界输入的识别，好的临界输入排序可以大大缩小ＣＢＴ规模。文中提出了一种临界输入的启发式识别方法，以求获得较小的ＣＢＴ，加速测试生成过程。     

论张闻天的政策和策略思想

张闻天为毛泽东政策和策略思想作出了巨大贡献。其中 ,开放性、批判性是其基本特点 ;积极发动各种力量为我所用是其现实基础 ;具体灵活地解决各种问题 ,达到“问题与主义”的有机结合是其显著特色 ;立场的坚定性与有限度的妥协相结合 ,长期战略与短期政策相结合的思想是其战术特色。