美学研究之当下论域与理论前景

近年来,我国的美学研究蓬勃发展,美学基本原理探讨成效显著,中外美学史梳理有条不紊,部门美学研究异彩纷呈,流派美学研究乐此不疲。其主要特征有五:一是参与者众,成果五花八门;二是师承关系明显,排异性强;三是教材各异,令人无所适从;四是思辨者多,实验取证者少,归纳总结者多,创新者少;五是学位论文俨然成为新见主产地。研究方法主要有哲学思辨法、心理还原法以及语义分析、经验主义、社会学、历史学、系统论等。不足之处即为缺乏理论创新,鲜有大师级人物出现,故此未来之研究应以创新为第一要务,力求把深奥难懂的美学理论阐发得通俗易懂。     

It's Complicated: The 2014–2015 U.S. Measles Outbreak and Parents’ Vaccination Beliefs,Confidence, and Intentions

While it seems intuitive that highly visible vaccine‐preventable disease outbreaks should impact perceptions of disease risk and facilitate vaccination, few empirical studies exist to confirm or dispel these beliefs. This study investigates the impact of the 2014–2015 Disneyland measles outbreak on parents’ vaccination attitudes and future vaccination intentions. The analysis relies on a pair of public opinion surveys of American parents with at least one child under the age of six (N = 1,000 across each survey). Controlling for basic demographics, we found higher levels of reported confidence in the safety and efficacy of childhood vaccinations in our follow‐up data collection. However, this confidence was also accompanied by elevated levels of concern toward childhood vaccines among American parents. We then examined how different subgroups in the population scored on these measures before and after the outbreak. We found that parents with high levels of interest in the topic of vaccines and a child who is not fully upto date with the recommended vaccination schedule reported more supportive attitudes toward vaccines. However, future intentions to follow the recommended vaccination schedule were not positively impacted by the outbreak. Possible explanations for these results and implications for vaccination outreach are discussed.     

A class of partially linear transformation models for recurrent gap times

In this article, we propose a general class of partially linear transformation models for recurrent gap time data, which extends the linear transformation models by incorporating non linear covariate effects and includes the partially linear proportional hazards and the partially linear proportional odds models as special cases. Both global and local estimating equations are developed to estimate the parametric and non parametric covariate effects, and the asymptotic properties of the resulting estimators are established. The finite-sample behavior of the proposed estimators is evaluated through simulation studies, and an application to a clinic study on chronic granulomatous disease is provided.     

历史文献学视野下的重大历史事件

重大历史事件的提出源于国家文艺创作政策,是重大历史题材的内核。从历史文献学的视角来看,重大历史事件的文献形态表现为本源事件、衍生事件和文本事件。重大历史事件的衍生特征主要体现为本源事件的内容选择性、视角多样性、衍生多态性和历史叙事的结构层次性。重大历史事件具有文献能产性,其根本动力来源于历史主体的社会认可需要、纪念活动的客观物证需要和文艺创作的传奇叙事需要。     

No Expo Network: a failed mobilization in a post-political frame

In 2015 Milan hosted the Universal Exposition with the theme ‘Feeding the Planet, Energy for Life’. Even if characterized by various scandals and problems, the edition was narrated by the mainstream media as a political and economic success. Critical voices were almost completely obscured by favorable propaganda and the ideas of development and the future proposed by the Expo rhetoric was presented as inevitable, configuring ‘the best of all possible worlds’ in a more general post-political frame. In this profile I first present the main characteristics of the No Expo Network, e.g. the actors that composed it and the main critiques that they advanced. I will then focus on the reasons for its defeat, which is then contextualized in relation to the election of the Chief Executive Officer of Expo 2015 as new Mayor of Milan. Here, we can see the continuation and structural strengthening of the neoliberal politics of Expo2015 beyond the mega event itself.     

湖南省学前教育普及现状调查与对策建议

湖南省实施发展学前教育三年行动计划效果明显，学前教育机构总数、在园幼儿数、学前三年毛入学率显著增加。与经济发达省份对比，湖南省学前教育普及水平还比较落后，城镇学前教育普及水平明显高于农村地区，县域之间学前教育普及水平差距明显。湖南省普及学前教育面临的主要问题是：政府主导作用发挥不够、农村学前教育普及水平落后、学前教育基础建设不足、普及学前教育路径不畅。推进湖南学前教育持续普及，需要构建学前教育公共服务体系，大力扶持农村学前教育，建立学前教育的保障体系，优化学前教育普及模式。     

黄山市音乐考级的现状调查与研究

音乐考级是对音乐能力进行的分级考试。黄山市作为皖南山城,具有浓厚的徽州文化底蕴,在当地老百姓的观念中学习艺术是旁门左道,自从十年前第一个音乐考级点建立起,至今已有三个考级单位,参与培训并获得考级证书的学员近万人。极大程度上推动了黄山市素质教育的发展,更新了老百姓的传统观念。本文通过对黄山市音乐考级现状的调查与分析,了解本市音乐考级这一机制的运行情况,总结音乐考级带来的成效以及存在的不良发展趋向,提出解决弊端的方法并对黄山市音乐考级未来发展提出建设性的建议。     

中国决策情境下的多源流模型及其优化研究

作为当今公共政策研究领域最炙手可热的理论模型之一,约翰·金登的多源流分析理论业已得到国内外学者的广泛应用与认可。在对该模型的相关内容进行简单铺陈后,通过辨析国内外不同的政策主体参与逻辑,进一步厘清了我国公共决策的独有特征。研究重点是在整合提炼西方既有修正思路的基础上,沿袭模型的模糊性假设,结合我国具体实践案例,对多源流模型进行优化与补充。研究表明,中国决策情境下的多源流模型优化主要有提高源流间的融合性、政治源流的核心化、焦点事件的独立化以及特殊情况下的临时决策等四种路径,四种优化与补充路径的有机结合将为进一步提升模型适用性提供帮助。     

Optimal cut-off for rare events and unbalanced misclassification costs

This paper develops a method for handling two-class classification problems with highly unbalanced class sizes and misclassification costs. When the class sizes are highly unbalanced and the minority class represents a rare event, conventional classification methods tend to strongly favour the majority class, resulting in very low detection of the minority class. A method is proposed to determine the optimal cut-off for asymmetric misclassification costs and for unbalanced class sizes. Monte Carlo simulations show that this proposal performs better than the method based on the notion of classification accuracy. Finally, the proposed method is applied to empirical data on Italian small and medium enterprises to classify them into default and non-default groups.     

路径与旨趣：近代浙江文化史研究嬗变

近代江南史研究见证并参与了近代中国社会文化的变迁,相比上海、苏南等地,浙江近代文化史研究亟需进一步拓展与深化。以革命与事件、结构与认同、学人与学派等研究路径为线索,回顾浙江近代文化史研究的关键要素,应能展望今后研究的方向：去意识形态化、突破单向度思维,以多元视角阐释近代浙江的革命群体与事件;揭示近代浙江文化现象背后深层次的社会关系和权力关系、结构与心态、集体记忆与文化认同,进一步认知近代精英与民众、国家与社会的能动关系;浙江学人在近代学术流变中发挥承前启后的作用,学人学术思想的本意及其实践成为近代浙学重建的重要参考。运用整体视角综合事件、结构、学理,积极拓展史料与理论范式,深入发掘近代浙江文化的历史经验和内在脉络,将为探索中国原理提供有效的知识与思想资源。