优选方案定量评价模型研究

在确定评价指标体系的基础上，如何对若干事物或方案进行选优是一个十分有意义的问题．作者利用模糊多目标决策对此进行研究，并通过实例说明该方法的有效性与实用性．     

基于价格的消费者信息搜寻过程研究

消费者在购买商品之前,信息搜集是一个必不可少的阶段。消费者的信息搜集过程是比较复杂的。文章通过构建信息搜寻模型,并对影响信息搜集的因素进行分析,认为产品的价格是影响信息搜集量及其持续时间的主要因素,即消费者在购买高价商品时花费的时间远远大于购买低价商品所花费的时间,并用实例进行验证。     

Gender,lineage, and fertility‐related outcomes in Ghana

A growing literature examines the empirical relationship between the joint reproductive preferences of marital partners and reproductive outcomes in Africa. Less explored is how spousal power in decision making may be influenced by lineage type. Using pooled data from Ghana, we investigate how lineage affects gendered reproductive decision outcomes and find some evidence that matrilineal women are more able than nonmatrilineal women to translate their reproductive preferences into action consistent with their goals.     

Marginal and association regression models for longitudinal binary data with drop‐outs: A likelihood‐based approach

Longitudinal data often contain missing observations, and it is in general difficult to justify particular missing data mechanisms, whether random or not, that may be hard to distinguish. The authors describe a likelihood‐based approach to estimating both the mean response and association parameters for longitudinal binary data with drop‐outs. They specify marginal and dependence structures as regression models which link the responses to the covariates. They illustrate their approach using a data set from the Waterloo Smoking Prevention Project They also report the results of simulation studies carried out to assess the performance of their technique under various circumstances.     

论中国艺术表演团体改革的实现途径--兼论中国文化体制改革的特殊性

中国文化事业体制改革的目标和道路要受到行业内部特殊矛盾运动形态的制约。以艺术表演团体改革为例透视文化事业单位改革与政府策略选择之间的关系,可以为决策者提供一种有关中国文化事业体制改革过程和特点的具象把握。在整个社会由计划经济体制向社会主义市场经济体制转轨时期,艺术表演团体固有的政治-伦理角色、市场-经营角色、艺术-行业角色三重身份和伦理性目标、政治性目标、经济效益目标、审美价值目标等多重目标之间相互矛盾、相互依存和对立统一,共同构成了艺术表演团体内部复杂的矛盾运动。而正是这种矛盾特殊性构成各级政府在推进艺术表演团体改革过程中的策略选择基础。     

Potential exposures and risks from beryllium-containing products.

Beryllium is the strongest of the lightweight metals. Used primarily in military applications prior to the end of the Cold War, beryllium is finding new applications in many commercial products, including computers, telecommunication equipment, and consumer and automotive electronics. The use of beryllium in nondefense consumer applications is of concern because beryllium is toxic. Inhalation of beryllium dust or vapor causes a chronic lung disease in some individuals at concentrations as low as 0.01 microg/m3 in air. As beryllium enters wider commerce, it is prudent to ask what risks this might present to the general public and to workers downstream of the beryllium materials industry. We address this question by evaluating the potential for beryllium exposure from the manufacturing, use, recycle, and disposal of beryllium-containing products. Combining a market study with a qualitative exposure analysis, we determine which beryllium applications and life cycle phases have the largest exposure potential. Our analysis suggests that use and maintenance of the most common types of beryllium-containing products do not result in any obvious exposures of concern, and that maintenance activities result in greater exposures than product use. Product disposal has potential to present significant individual risks, but uncertainties concerning current and future routes of product disposal make it difficult to be definitive. Overall, additional exposure and dose-response data are needed to evaluate both the health significance of many exposure scenarios, and the adequacy of existing regulations to protect workers and the public. Although public exposures to beryllium and public awareness and concern regarding beryllium risks are currently low, beryllium risks have psychometric qualities that may lead to rapidly heightened public concern.     

Costs and Rewards of Children: The Effects of Becoming a Parent on Adults' Lives

How do new parents differ from their childless counterparts in social and psychological resources, daily strains, and psychological well‐being? Using a nationally representative panel of 1,933 adults who were childless at the first interview, we compare 6 indicators of adults' lives for those who became parents and those remaining childless several years later, controlling for earlier states. Becoming a parent is both detrimental and rewarding. With the exception of social integration, which is greater for all groups of new parents compared with their childless counterparts, the effects of parental status on adults' lives vary markedly by gender and marital status. Unmarried parents report lower self‐efficacy and higher depression than their childless counterparts. Married mothers' lives are marked by more housework and more marital conflict but less depression than their childless counterparts. Parental status has little influence on the lives of married men.     

Valuation of childhood risk reduction: the importance of age, risk preferences, and perspective.

This article explores two problems analysts face in determining how to estimate values for children's health and safety risk reductions. The first addresses the question: Do willingness‐to‐pay estimates for health risk changes differ across children and adults and, if so, how? To answer this question, the article first examines the potential effects of age and risk preferences on willingness to pay. A summary of the literature reporting empirical evidence of differences between willingness to pay for adult health and safety risk reductions and willingness to pay for health and safety risk reductions in children is also provided. The second dimension of the problem is a more fundamental issue: Whose perspective is relevant when valuing children's health effects—society's, children's, adults‐as‐children, or parents'? Each perspective is considered, followed ultimately by the conclusion that adopting a parental perspective through an intrahousehold allocation model seems closest to meeting the needs of the estimation problem at hand. A policy example in which the choice of perspective affects the outcome of a regulatory benefit‐cost analysis rounds out the article and emphasizes the importance of perspective.     

公共决策的民主化与执政能力的提高

执政党的主要行为表现为制定政策,而连接政党和群众的一个重要纽带就是公共政策。可以说,政党执政能力的高低,在某种程度上取决于政策制定的好坏。民主化作为一个国家和民族政治文明程度的重要标尺,政策的民主化对于执政党显得尤为重要,本文从公共决策民主化的角度来探讨对于政党执政能力提高的重要意义。