公共组织BPR决策模型及实证研究

公共组织要从效率、效能和效益(3Es)三方面得以提高,必须实施机构的业务流程再造(BPR),从根本上进行体系的再设计.以满足顾客需求为目标,针对公共组织业务流程再造过程中的多目标问题,提出公共组织BPR决策模型,从定性和定量两个角度对目标要素进行详细分析,并结合实证研究,为公共组织实施流程再造提供了决策依据.     

财务预期:财务学的一个新范畴

运用预期理论,探讨财务预期的概念、理论基础、形成路径、财务预期的类型和作用。利用中国平安保险公司2008年的融资门事件,分析非稳定财务预期现象的存在,提出改善决策者心智模式、建立健全决策者财务预期监测与预警系统等相关措施。     

Pre-decisional information acquisition: Why do we pay too much for information? Brief report

People tend to acquire more information while making their decisions than a rational and risk-neutral benchmark would predict. We conduct a carefully designed experiment to derive five plausible reasons for pre-decision information overpurchasing. The results show that overpurchasing of information can be almost entirely explained by systematic information processing errors (misestimation or incorrect Bayesian updating), possibly caused by biased intuitive decision processes. Other factors, such as overoptimism about the validity of the new information, risk aversion, ambiguity aversion, and curiosity about (irrelevant) information, play at most a minor role. Our results imply that information overacquisitions are mainly driven by the overestimation of the usefulness of additional information.     

传统行政文化对决策科学化与民主化的负面影响

传统行政文化是影响到决策的深层因素,其思维模式、权威型人格、差序格局和知识阶层的依附性对决策产生了负面影响,是决策科学化与民主化的主要障碍。决策要实现科学化与民主化,除了要进行制度上的改革,更应该从基础因素入手,即促进我国行政文化的创新。     

Application of hybrid framework to facilitate lean six sigma implementation: a manufacturing company case experience

This study aims to propose a hybrid framework for lean six sigma (LSS) based on the prioritisation of barriers and solution approaches, to facilitate hassles free applications for handling the challenges of wastes reduction and quality improvement. The study identifies 27 LSS barriers and 22 solution approaches through literature review and utilises feedback from industry experts. For framework, study uses fuzzy AHP-PROMETHEE to prioritise LSS barriers and solution approaches. Incorporating fuzzy sets in analytical hierarchy process (AHP) ensures the optimality of barrier weights. Whereas, preference ranking organisation method for enrichment of evaluations (PROMETHEE) helps in pairwise comparisons of solution approaches with respect to each LSS barrier, facilitating fair judgements. This research guides regarding the development of framework and checks its suitability and robustness through case application of an Indian manufacturing organisation. Authors expect that researchers and practitioners will find study useful for LSS and multi criteria decision making(MCDM) domains.     

目标导向层次分析方法

对含有抽象属性的多属性层次结构而言,层次分析法即AHP（包括DIS-AHP、ABS-AHP、IDE-AHP和SUP-AHP四种具体方法）会因比率比较基准缺失、权重内涵模糊不清或方案评价不保序而缺乏科学理性。为发展AHP,基于摆幅置权（SW）判断模式和多属性决策属性价值公度方法,首先给出了能为层次结构抽象属性上的SW判断提供支持的规约性多属性决策属性价值公度方法,然后由此并结合多属性价值理论给出了能够克服现有层次分析法内在缺陷的目标导向层次分析方法即ToAHP。相对于AHP,ToAHP在判断模式与权重内涵、方法建构的理论基础和相关假设检验、方案评价保序与其内在数理依据上具有明显的相对科学合理性。应用分析表明：在输入信息可比的条件下,ToAHP明显优于AHP的四种分析方法之中最具可信性的SUP-AHP方法。     

基于犹豫模糊语言信息的前景决策方法

本文首先回顾了模糊信息下前景理论研究的现状,发现犹豫模糊语言这一决策中常见的信息表达形式在前景理论框架中的研究被忽略,同时犹豫模糊环境下的前景决策方法具有一定的应用背景;基于此,本文考虑到决策者在实际决策过程中惯用的信息表达以及面对收益和损失时不同的风险态度,试图在犹豫模糊语言环境下构造新的前景理论决策框架,建立基于犹豫模糊语言信息的前景决策方法,并给出具体的决策步骤;最后通过算例分析展示了该方法的实际应用过程,并与犹豫模糊语言环境下的期望效用决策结果进行对比,说明了该方法更符合实际决策情景。     

Professional discretion and length of work experience: what findings from focus groups with care managers in elder care suggest

ABSTRACT

Research has explored how care managers in elder care – who often function as ‘street-level bureaucrats’ – regard professional discretion. The way in which length of work experience affects care managers’ use of professional discretion remains, however, unexplored. This article present findings from 12 focus groups with 60 care managers. By bringing attention to how care managers experience the needs assessment process, this article sheds light on how these ‘street-level bureaucrats’ struggle when they try to balance their clients’ needs against institutional frameworks and local guidelines. Length of work experience seems to play a role in how care managers claim to use professional discretion. Experienced care managers describe how they deviate from the guidelines at times in order to create an increased scope of action in their decision-making process. Those with less time in the profession describe greater difficulties in this respect. Findings suggest that research should explore if length of work experience plays a role in the actual way in which care managers assess needs and make decisions. As such, they contribute to our understanding of how needs assessment processes are navigated by professionals while also pointing towards the nature of professional discretion in gerontological social work.     

中国和平崛起战略环境研究

“中国和平崛起”已经正式成为一项带有根本意义的国家战略。它是中华民族的需求,也是中华民族对世界的贡献,对于实现中华民族的腾飞,把我国建设成为繁荣富强的社会主义强国,具有重大的战略意义。根据当前国际局势发展的大背景,详细分析中国在国际上和平崛起的可能性;同时阐述目前中国实施和平崛起战略所面临的几个主要问题和挑战,最终提出中国正确实施和平崛起战略的几点建议。