Group decision making on water resources based on analysis of individual rankings

In problems to do with managing water resources multiple decision makers are involved, each acting in their own right and using different value systems. In the literature on management science, several procedures are proposed in order to establish a collective preference based on the aggregation of different individual preferences. However, the well-known methods that focus on a single winner have some inconveniences that should be addressed. This paper is focused on a group decision making procedure based on the analysis of individual rankings with the aim of choosing an appropriate alternative for a water resources problem. This alternative is found to be the best compromise from the points of view of all actors involved in the decision problem. The structure of the method is set out as is its application to the water resources problem. A comparison with other methods is presented and discussed.     

Multiple criteria decision analysis of treatment and land-filling technologies for waste incineration residues

In this paper, we present a real-world case realized in Switzerland on behalf of the federal agency in charge of the waste policy. The incineration of urban wastes generates hazardous residues that need specific treatment and/or land-filling technologies. The variety of local situations and appraisals led to the choice of very different solutions. Moreover, proponents were keen to propose new technologies. The purpose of this study was to provide the background for a national policy that would apply to all future projects.     

Product Portfolio Strategies: The Case of Multifunction Products

Motivated by the proliferation of multifunction products, we investigate product portfolio decisions of a single firm by analyzing the impact of three major factors. First, because multifunction products provide complete or partial functionalities of single‐function products, we incorporate substitution or cannibalization effects between the potential products. Second, we explicitly model the variable costs of manufacturing the single‐function and multifunction products. Third, we examine the firm's pricing decisions because of their impact on the degree of cannibalization between the multifunction product and one or more single‐function products. Using an economic model, we first characterize the firm's optimal product portfolio (through a quantity‐based decision), which in turn determines the market equilibrium prices for each product in its portfolio. Some of the unique insights stemming from our analysis are: (a) the optimal product portfolio choice is driven primarily by maximum profit margins for the single‐function products weighted by the demand substitution effects; and (b) from a product design perspective, the complete functionality of the base single‐function product is always included in the optimal product offering, but this is not necessarily the case with the complete functionality of the nonbase single‐function product.     

基于三支决策的黄河流域城市高质量发展研究

高质量发展是现阶段中国经济社会发展的主基调,对新时代全面建成小康社会有着直接影响。运用熵值法构造黄河流域城市高质量发展指标体系,借助基于邻域的三支决策方法划分城市类型,探讨黄河流域枢纽经济圈中不同类型城市的功能与地位,在此基础上,将各类型城市高质量发展机制用时空演化树模型展示出来,找出时空演变过程中关键节点城市发展的规律性。研究发现:(1)黄河流域城市高质量发展水平与时间呈非线性的上升趋势,仍然存在发展不平衡、不充分的地区差异。(2)5类城市高质量发展时空演变总体稳定,在黄河枢纽经济圈中,越处于核心位置的城市,发展质量越高。(3)经济能力是基础,产业创新、人才培养、开放合作、绿色发展是城市实现高质量发展的关键。研究结果丰富了城市类型划分的新方法,为分类施策、区域联动的黄河流域城市管理提供了政策启示,也为后续探索城市间经济社会联系奠定了基础。     

Basic concepts of multiple tests — A survey

It is the purpose of this paper to review the main aspects related to multiple test problems. This concerns among others the particularities of multiple tests as for instance the formulation of restrictions to avoid inconsistent decisions and of criteria to control for a multiple type I error rate. In addition, the basic principles for constructing multiple tests are introduced and their properties are summarized. The paper closes with giving a rough idea of further special multiple test problems and their corresponding test procedures.     

不同CSR分担模式下的闭环供应链销售努力与定价决策

本文研究考虑企业社会责任(CSR)闭环供应链的定价及销售努力问题,在制造商、零售商以及二者联合承担CSR三种模式下,分析了CSR行为对闭环供应链销售努力及定价策略的影响。研究表明,无论在何种CSR分担模式下,成员企业的CSR行为不仅有利于降低产品价格,提高零售商的销售努力水平、产品销量及废旧产品回收效果,还有效的增加了制造商的社会福利、第三方及系统的总利润。当制造商或零售商单独承担CSR时,第三方及闭环供应链整体的利润均相等且大于二者联合承担CSR时。当制造商和零售商联合承担CSR时,二者的社会福利均大于其单独承担CSR时,且主导零售商的社会福利较之制造商更大。     

物料价格随时间波动及完工期随机的MTO订购决策

对于订单式中小生产企业,物料供应是否及时以及生产进度是否按计划进行是影响订单交货期的关键因素。实际中,某些产品的物料价格随时间连续波动并具有规律性,而生产过程中由于插单多、工人流动性大、设备故障、质量返工等,生产完工期有一定的随机性。对于物料订购决策,传统方法主要考虑订单的投产日期以及物料采购成本最小化,而未考虑订单完工期的随机性特点。基于企业内部供应链集成及总成本最小化的系统思想,综合考虑物料价格的变化趋势以及随机生产完工期的统计规律,分别建立单一物料或多种物料订购情形下总生产成本(包括订购成本、制造成本、延迟完工或提早完工成本等)与订购日期的关系模型,并对其最优解进行讨论、分析与求解。当物料种类单一时,采用极值法对模型极小值点的存在性进行讨论;当物料种类较多时,构建了有约束条件的多决策变量非线性优化模型,并采用最优化理论中的拉格朗日乘子法(即PHR算法)进行求解。通过实例分析,得出的结论是物料最佳订购时间点与物料初始价格、价格波动周期、波动幅度、单位延迟或提早完工成本等因素相关。上述采购与生产集成的思想、模型构建的思路以及求解方法等可供有关人员参考。     

IMP: A decision aid for multiattribute evaluation using imprecise weight estimates

In multicriteria analysis, weights are inferred from judgements. Judgements are subject to uncertainty and the weights found depend on the method used so that weights must necessarily be imprecise. Describing weights by a suitable probability distribution captures this imprecision and leads to correspondingly imprecise estimates of the multiattribute scores given to alternatives. A method is described which enables the parameters of a Dirichlet distribution to be found from three point weight estimates and for this to be used to determine whether or not alternatives may justifiably be differentiated by their scores. A simple chart shows this information and permits easy interaction. An illustration shows the effects of different sources of imprecision and of aggregating individual assessments in a group.     

Multiple paths in educational transitions: A multinomial transition model with unobserved heterogeneity

In many countries educational branching points consist of more than two qualitatively different alternatives, and only some alternatives provide the opportunity of continuing into higher education. I develop a multinomial transition model for modeling the effects of family background characteristics and individual characteristics on these complex educational careers. The model controls for unobserved heterogeneity that may, if ignored, result in biased estimates. Compared to previous research, I explicitly include instrumental variables that ensure identification of the unobserved component. I apply the model to the Danish case and analyze data which covers the educational careers of a cohort of Danes born around 1954. I find that the model brings forward non-trivial heterogeneity in the influence of family background and ability on qualitatively different choice alternatives both within and across transitions. I also find that not controlling for unobserved heterogeneity leads to marked underestimation of the family background effect on both early and late transitions in the educational career.     

Journalists as first responders

ABSTRACT

Covering terrorist attacks has posed numerous challenges to mainstream media across the world. Bringing information to the public quickly remains a primary goal for news media, but the journalistic duty to tell the truth comes with an increased responsibility for the accuracy of reports. When news is broken by civilian eyewitnesses and is posted by social media before it has even gone through the barest of verification checks, news media editors struggle to fulfil the task of informing the public while reporting on stories that hold the potential to alarm the audience. This paper offers some insights into the ways the New Zealand news media organised reporting on the March 15th terrorist attack in Christchurch. Based on face-to-face interviews with selected editors of major news organisations in New Zealand, it investigates the ways they operated in this situation. It explores key moments in editorial decision making on 15 March 2019, the first day of coverage of the terrorist attack. It focuses on the ‘first responder’ elements of news media work – speed and accuracy in providing information about the mosque attacks – to identify how journalistic norms are adapted and changed to report this breaking news.