Demographic transition in sub-Saharan Africa: How big will the economic dividend be?

In mid-demographic-transition, many Asian countries enjoyed a large demographic ‘dividend’: extra economic growth owing to falling dependant/workforce ratios, or slower natural increase, or both. We estimate the dividend, 1985–2025, in sub-Saharan Africa and its populous countries. Dependency and natural increase peaked around 1985, 20 years after Asia. The UN projects an acceleration of the subsequent slow falls but disregards slowish declines in young-age mortality and thus, we argue, overestimates future fertility decline. Even if one accepts their projection, arithmetical and econometric evidence suggests an annual, if not total, dividend well below Asia's. The dividend arises more from falling dependency than reduced natural increase, and could be increased by accelerating the fertility decline (e.g., by reducing young-age mortality) or by employing a larger workforce productively. Any dividend from transition apart, low saving in much of Africa (unlike Asia) means that, given likely natural increase, current consumption per person is unsustainable because it depletes capital per person.     

The fiscal burden of rising dependency ratios

This paper explores the issue of the fiscal burden of population aging in Canada over the period from 2004 to 2026 by introducing a new methodological tool and using an approach that (a) is comprehensive with respect to government revenues and expenditures, (b) uses a fine disaggregation of government revenues and expenditures, and (c) integrates demographic, economic, and fiscal developments. The results indicate that the concerns about the ability of the existing fiscal system to withstand the pressures of population aging are unfounded. They indicate that, in the absence of an economic collapse, the existing fiscal structure will be able to handle the fiscal pressures of population aging. Instead of letting a nonexistent problem drive the course of fiscal policy in Canada, it would be more profitable to focus on avenues for making the fiscal structure a more effective tool for economic growth and human development.     

Drug dependency and HIV testing among state prisoners

HIV and drug use are higher among prisoners than the general US population. This study examines drug dependency/use and differences between prisoners who volunteered for HIV testing and those who did not in a less densely populated state. It was hypothesized that prisoners who volunteered for an HIV test were engaged in more drug use and other risky behaviors than those who did not. Survey data were collected from 600 randomly selected inmates (567 males and 33 females) from 15 state prisons. Subjects were male (95%), white (63%), never married (43%), and 44% volunteered for an HIV test since entering prison. Ninety-two percent of inmates met DSM criteria for drug dependence in their lifetime. Those who volunteered for HIV testing were 2.6 times more likely to ever have used PCP; 1.5 times more likely to ever have used cocaine; 1.4 times more likely to ever have had a problem with drugs; 1.3 times more likely to have used opiates, and 1.6 times more likely to report having been sexually or physically abused. Implications for interventions are discussed.     

治理我国新一轮通货膨胀的财税政策

我国新一轮的通货膨胀不是商品供不应求的简单经济矛盾引起的,而是开放经济条件下的国内经济结构失衡和对外经济失衡导致的输入型通货膨胀.实施紧缩性货币政策虽然能暂时起到抑制投资过热、控制流动性过剩和通货膨胀的作用,并不能解决我国结构性失衡的深层经济矛盾.治理我国新一轮通货膨胀,不仅需要采取"从紧"控制总量的货币政策,更需要从解决我国经济结构性失衡的深层矛盾入手,采取"从优"调整结构的财税政策.     

北京市与周边地区商品依存度现状分析

调查表明,北京市与环渤海地区各省区市之间在资源性商品和农产品领域存在较高的依存度:内蒙古和山西为北京最主要的煤炭、电力生产供应基地;辽、冀、津则成为北京所需成品油的主要供应基地;河北成为北京最主要的农副产品生产和供应基地。在大多数一般消费品领域,各地间贸易规模较小,北京市对周边省区市的辐射能力相对较弱,北京产品或六省区市产品分别在对方市场的占有率也都不高。这种状况的产生原因和影响值得进一步探讨。     

温度对聚合物QCM传感器性能的影响研究

以聚偏氟乙烯(PVDF)为敏感材料,石英晶体微天平(QCM)为敏感元件构成聚合物QCM传感器。该文主要对神经毒剂模拟剂DMMP的气敏特性进行研究,并重点讨论了温度对PVDF聚合物膜层QCM传感器性能的影响。结果表明,当测试温度愈接近PVDF的玻璃化温度,传感器的响应幅值就愈高,且在各个DMMP测试气氛浓度时,传感器的响应幅值对温度的依赖性均符合Arrhenius关系;升高温度有利于提高传感器的响应速度,但同时其灵敏度却降低。     

Activist online resource mobilization: Relationship building features that fulfill resource dependencies

This study examined activist group websites (N = 300) to determine how activists are engaging in resource mobilization online and provides a benchmark for current mobilization practices by activists. Website features asking visitors to donate, join the organization, and links to other activist groups were most common on the sites. The study positions resource mobilization in terms of online relationships and organizational linkages, argues that resource dependencies drive mobilization efforts and that resource-based relationships with publics may be established in the mobilization process.     

The welfare politics of Charles Murray are alive and well in the UK

Prideaux SJ. The welfare politics of Charles Murray are alive and well in the UK
Int J Soc Welfare 2010: 19: 293–302 © 2009 The Author(s), Journal compilation © 2009 Blackwell Publishing Ltd and the International Journal of Social Welfare. This article takes a historical look at the ‘underclass’ debate that was prominently provoked and perpetuated in Britain by the American Charles Murray. It does so because the recent protestations about gun crime, welfare dependency and lone parenthood by David Cameron and the Conservative Party have not only echoed New Labour's New Deal logic, but have also reignited an argument that furiously raged in British policy debates during the 1980s and 1990s. Despite numerous criticisms and critics questioning Murray's selection of evidence, methodology and use of anecdotal vignettes, it is still apparent that the stereotypical assumptions about a section of British society who choose not to work, live a life of crime and produce inadequately socialised illegitimate children still persist. Consequently, the article revisits these arguments so that lessons from the past can now be brought to the fore and, hopefully, taken on board academically if not politically.     

Public procurement of innovation and local authority procurement: procurement modes and framework conditions in three European cities

Local authorities present complex implementation settings for public procurement of innovation (PPI) practices and include a range of barriers, yet their proximity to citizens and local economic actors suggests that they are likely to encounter unmet needs in advance of national governments, creating potential to act as lead users. This paper develops a conceptualisation of the local authority procurement environment, using it as a framework for analysing the potential for PPI in three city authorities across Europe, representing three distinct modes of public procurement: functional procurement, tactical procurement and strategic procurement. The paper proposes that local authorities are broadly characterised by cyclical, geographically bounded procurement activity, which contains potential for stimulating incremental innovation through normal procurement activity if the external institutional setting is permissive. The paper suggests conditions for increasing the possibilities for more disruptive innovation through local authority procurement and areas for further research.     

Making Up for Lost Time

Summary

This article focuses on lesbians in later midlife who are in recovery (for at least six months) from chemical dependency and on the ways the traumatic effects of their chemical dependency affect and influence the issues they face, the decisions they make, the actions they take, and, most especially, the relationships they have with both self and others. Although earlier midlife (from 40 to 50) is an important time, we will focus on the later years (from 50 to 60) because they seem to comprise the critical decade, the time when “old selves are lost and new ones come into being” (Stein, 1983, p. 3).