低生育水平下的生育意愿研究

本文是课题组2006-2007年在江苏六县/市开展调查的初步分析报告。本调查从多个角度测量收集了有关生育意愿、生育观念、生育计划及其影响因素的信息,初步探讨了生育的政策、意愿、计划、行为之间的关系。调查发现,育龄妇女的意愿生育水平和实际生育水平都远远低于更替水平,理想子女数、现有子女数、生育打算和政策允许的生育子女数之间存在差距。育龄妇女对子女作用和子女价值的认识已经变化,精神需求是生育的重要理由。生育政策对人们的生育意愿和生育行为的影响已不是首要因素,经济、社会、文化等因素才影响人们的生育决策。     

The maximization of determinants of block Toeplitz matrices with applications in optimal design theory

We consider the maximization of the determinant of the trigonometric moment matrix of a matrix measure on the unit circle. The results are analog to those obtained by Dette and Studden (2005) for moment matrices of matrix measures on a compact interval. A statistical application in optimal design theory is considered and we present several optimal designs for Fourier regression models.     

也谈“饭盒”和“盒饭”

王希杰先生在《新加坡语文随笔》的《饭盒和盒饭》中把新加坡人的“吃饭盒”同南京人的“吃冰棒”的说法相类比,认为“冰棒是棒棒儿”,“饭盒是装饭的盒子”,既然“吃冰棒”(吃棒棒儿)可以说,那么“吃饭盒”当然也可以说。可是,考之于两个词限定成分的性质、同中心成分的语义关系及整个词语的命名角度和表义功能,就会发现两个词在这几个方面都是完全不同的。“冰棒”是以冰为原料做成的棒,其原料具有可食性,故可以说“吃冰棒”,“饭盒”是装饭的盒子,其制造原料是不可食的,不能说“吃饭盒”。     

杭州消费者食品安全风险认知研究

杭州消费者的食品安全风险认知总体上偏离了实际风险水平,消费者忽视各类食品的安全风险,夸大各类食品危害因素的风险程度。消费者食品安全风险认知还表现出了显著的矛盾性,在蔬菜农药残留问题上,安全性评价和风险性评价出现了正相关的情况。影响杭州消费者食品安全风险认知的主要因素是“失去控制”,次要因素为“严重后果”和“政府失职”,人口统计特征变量对食品安全风险认知有显著影响。     

Optimal fractional factorial designs for estimating interactions of one factor with all others: 3m Series

In some experimental situations, only one factor is expected to interact with other factors. Designs which permit estimation of all main effects and the interactions of one factor ‘With All Others’, are termed WAO designs. This paper discusses the existence and construction of s^m WAO designs. A series of WAO designs are presented for the 3^m factorial, for m = 6, 7, ... , 14. The p non-negligible effects are estimable in 9f^? runs, where f^? is the smallest integer such that 9f^? ≥p. These designs are determinant optimal within the class of parallel flats fractions and, except for the case f^? = 9, are new. They are ideally suited for sequential experiments.     

母子公司营销协同影响因素的实证研究

母子公司营销协同可以使各成员在营销活动上协调一致,组成统一的整体,共享资源与能力,以实现集团整体价值的最大化。实证研究表明,母子公司营销协同的影响因素可分为协同氛围、市场统一、战略相关和管控强度等四个方面,母子公司营销协同可由有形营销协同和无形营销协同两个维度来衡量;母子公司内部协同氛围越浓厚,母子公司间、子公司间在市场和战略方面越相似,越有助于实现营销协同;协同氛围和市场统一分别是影响无形与有形营销协同实现的关键因素。     

对Hurwitz定理的一个推广

本文对判别实二次型正定性的重要方法之一———Hurwitz定理做了推广 ,使得本来需从实二次型的矩阵A =(aij) n×n(A′ =A)的左上角元a11开始取从 1到n阶顺序主子式进行的判定 ,变成可以从A的主对角线上任意元aii(i =1,2 ,… ,n)开始取从 1到n阶连序主子式进行判定。因此 ,本文给出的方法使用起来更为方便、灵活 ,具有一定的实用价值     

On two asymptotic normal distributions for the generalized wilks lambda statistic

In this paper we.present a Normal asymptotic distribution for the logarithm of the generalized Wilks Lambda statistic based on an asymptotic distribution for the determinant of a Wishart matrix. This distribution is obtained through the combined use of Taylor expansions of random variables whose exponentials have chi-square distributions and the Lindeberg-Feller version of the Central Limit Theorem, Another asymptotic Normal distribution for the logarithm of the generalized Wilks Lambda statistic for the case when at most one of the sets has an odd number of variables is derived directly from the exact distribution. Both distributions are non-degenerate and non-singular. The first Normal distribution compares favorably with other known approximations and asymptotic distributions namely for large numbers of variables and small sample sizes, while the second Normal distribution, which has a more restricted application, compares in most cases highly favorably with other known asymptotic distributions and approximations. Finally, a method to compute approximate quantiles which lay very close and converge steadily to the exact ones is presented.     

Main Determinants of Foreign Direct Investment in the Southeast European Countries

The growth of foreign direct investments (FDI) in the world has been significant in recent years. Between 1990 and 2000 worldwide FDI inflows increased more than five times, and since 2000 they have declined. During the period of FDI expansion, growth was especially strong from 1997 onward. However, most of the FDI transactions were between the developed countries. The distribution of FDI is unequal and less-developing countries face difficulties in attracting FDI. Despite the fact that FDI is increasingly important to developing countries, over the past few years the share of the developing countries in worldwide FDI inflows has been declining. The paper analyses geographical and sector distribution of FDI in the Southeast European countries (SEEC) and compares its amount with that in Central East European countries. According to economic theory, FDI towards developing countries flows for labor-intensive and low-technology production, while towards developed states, it flows for high-technology production. Identification of determining factors of FDI is a complex problem which depends on several characteristics specific for each country, sectors, and companies. All those factors could be grouped in three broad categories: economic policy of host country, economic performance, and attractiveness of national economy. On the desegregated level, FDI depends on size and growth potential of a national economy, natural resources endowments and quality of workforce, openness to international trade and access to international markets, and quality of physical, financial, and technological infrastructure. An important question is how SEEC can attract more foreign investment. To find the answer, this paper uses data on FDI inflows to SEEC to determine the main host country determinants of FDI and provides regression-based estimation of determinants of FDI. Using a sample of SEEC and panel data techniques, the determinants of FDI in this part of Europe are investigated. The paper researches the relationship between FDI, GDP, GDP per capita, number of inhabitants, trade openness, inflation, external debt, and information and communication technology sectors. For SEEC, FDI inflows are largely dependent on the completion of the privatization process and in this paper we include the level of private sector and privatization as explanatory variables. Our findings suggest that certain variables such as privatization and trade regime, as well as the density of infrastructure, appear to be robust under different specifications. A positive significance of the agglomeration factor is also observed, confirming the relevant theoretical propositions. However, certain differential variables, such as the privatization, could not be fully captured due to the statistical homogeneity of the sample.     

非法诱惑侦查的认定与证明

基于“认定标准”与“证明制度”这两个维度检视国内和域外诱惑侦查制度，可以发现中国存在制度规范缺失、司法操作不力和理论研究不足等问题，以致打击犯罪与保障人权严重失衡。反观诱惑侦查理论和实践较为发达的域外法，其认定标准由单一主观标准或客观标准向混合的双重标准或分离的双重标准发展，并形成各自独有的证明模式。结合中国司法制度和实践，提出解决问题的有效途径，以期抑制非法诱惑侦查:第一，破除传统的二分法模式，重新设置诱惑侦查合法与非法的界限；第二，解决主观标准和客观标准之间的争议，确立主客观分离的双重审查标准；第三，量化分离式双重审查标准的认定要素，协调各要素之间的互动关系；第四，纠正异化的证明责任分配，明确控辩双方的证明责任和证明标准。