Lottomania and other anomalies in the market for lotto

This research is concerned with the determination of the demand for “lotto” in Israel. While an important focus of our research is upon the effects on the demand for lotto of ticket pricing and jackpot announcements, we also investigate several empirical phenomena that are apparently inconsistent with expected utility theory. These include an effect we call “lottomania” which is induced by rollover, and “prize fatigue” when the jackpot does not increase. Another aberration from expected utility theory is that the underlying odds of winning have no measurable effect on sales.     

The Collapsing Choice Theory: Dissociating Choice and Judgment in Decision Making

Decision making theory in general, and mental models in particular, associate judgment and choice. Decision choice follows probability estimates and errors in choice derive mainly from errors in judgment. In the studies reported here we use the Monty Hall dilemma to illustrate that judgment and choice do not always go together, and that such a dissociation can lead to better decision-making. Specifically, we demonstrate that in certain decision problems, exceeding working memory limitations can actually improve decision choice. We show across four experiments that increasing the number of choice alternatives forces people to collapse choices together, resulting in better decision-making. While choice performance improves, probability judgments do not change, thus demonstrating an important dissociation between choice and probability judgments. We propose the Collapsing Choice Theory (CCT) which explains how working memory capacity, probability estimation, choice alternatives, judgment, and regret all interact and effect decision quality.      

Behavior Change and the Freshman 15: Tracking Physical Activity and Dietary Patterns in 1st-Year University Women

Objective and Participants: The authors assessed the stability of diet and physical activity and their relationship to weight changes in first-year university women. Methods: They collected anthropometric and body composition data from 101 resident women at the beginning of their first year of college and again at 12 months. The authors obtained physical activity and dietary logs 4 times throughout the year. Results: Caloric intake decreased over 12 months in all participants (p = .01). There was little change in physical activity in participants who lost weight (p = .73, d = .18). Those who gained weight experienced a trend toward decreased physical activity (p = .13, d = .38). A significant Time X Group interaction on physical activity (p = .04) suggests that physical activity patterns differed substantially between individuals who gained weight and those who lost weight. Conclusions: Reduction in physical activity appears to be the defining characteristic in freshman weight gain.     

“投票悖论”的分析及其矫正——理性选择理论的“投票现象”应用批判

投票机制是民主政治的制度性保障,但它却存在着一个悖论。这一悖论可被简单地表述为：在投票参与者意识到自己的选票对结果的影响是微不足道的时候,他们往往不会牺牲闲暇以及交通成本等方面的付出到投票站投出手中的选票。美国大选仅仅具有半数左右的参与率似乎也在事实上为以上＂洞见＂提供了心理学依据和社会学依据。在试图解决投票悖论这一问题的过程中,具体分析理性选择理论是如何从一个过分武断化了的前提出发,而走向一条循环论证的死胡同的;进而希望通过为投票动机添加新的变量的方式来缓解理性选择理论的这种弊病。     

公共选择理论与"公共服务市场化"--西方行政改革的理论背景

公共服务的市场化是20世纪80年代西方发达国家行政改革的核心主题,也是取得最大成效的改革领域.文章对公共选择理论对"公共物品供给的低效率"所导致的政府失败的分析予以了关注,对各国在实践中针对于此所进行的"公共服务市场化"的改革进行了评价.     

中国城镇化道路的战略选择

作为现代化重要标志之一的城镇化是社会发展的必然趋势 ,也是世界各国发展的自然过程。城镇化是一个农村人口和生产要素不断向新兴城镇转移并聚集的过程 ,包括城镇人口和新兴城镇数量的增加以及社会经济的现代化。进入 2 1世纪 ,城镇化在国民经济的发展中扮演着越来越重要的角色 ,如何选择一条适合中国国情的城镇化道路是推进城镇化快速发展的首要问题。文章分析了中国城镇化的严重滞后现状和城镇化的重要性 ,最后提出了适合中国国情的城镇化发展道路的建议。     

软预算约束与国企改革：从要素投入的视角分析

论文运用动态模型对软预算约束的形成路径进行了理论研究,并对中国国有企业改革的路径选择进行实证研究。研究结果表明软预算约束起源于企业要素投入与生产模式的匹配模式,而中国国有企业改革路径选择的结果是使要素投入和生产模式满足弱匹配条件。     

Bounded rationality and consumer choice: an evaluation of consumer choice of mobile bundles

Although numerous prior studies have examined consumer valuations in bundling transactions from a theoretical perspective, relatively few have focused on large datasets. In addition, little prior research has targeted developing telecommunication markets. To address these gaps in the literature, we examine the rationality of consumers' bundling choices in the mobile telecommunication industry, using operational data from China Telecom. We compare the current prices paid by consumers to the optimal prices of alternative bundling plans, based on the consumers' actual usage. We determine whether bundling choice is affected by risk aversion, the complexity of the bundle, and learning effects. The findings suggested that many users chose sub-optimal bundles that were more expensive than others were. The results showed that consumers were risk averse, and they were more likely to make non-optimal bundle selections with more complex usage patterns. No significant differences were found according to gender, age, or usage level.     

A correlation-theoretical interpretation of schur analysis

This paper is heavily leaned on the author's recent investigations concerning SCHUR analysis of non-negative Hermitian block matrices. The parameters of the matrix balls and the triangular choice scheme which describe a non-negative Hermitian block matrix will be interpreted in the framework of correlation theory     

CHOOSING USING

This article investigates the shaping of contemporary drug-using (and non-drug-using) subjectivities through operations of choice and consumption. Examining various registers of ‘possession,’ it argues that in the construction of both docile and irredeemably flawed consumers, ‘choice’ (and its negation) is pivotal. Exploring motifs of choice, possession and pleasure in the operations of ‘normal’ consumer culture and the problematization of drug-using exposes a deeper anxiety underlying contemporary drug panics.