一道“围棋擂台赛”问题的探究

进入21世纪,积极推进“务实外交”的俄罗斯开始大举在全球范围内布下能源大棋局,在国际上推行能源外交。俄罗斯在世界各国对能源的需求量日益增长的情形下,以其国内丰富的自然资源为后盾,在全球大打能源牌。一方面利用世界能源价格上涨的行情,加强能源载体的出口创汇,用“石油美元”振兴俄罗斯经济;另一方面又以能源为武器来突显自己的大国形象,维护国家的政治安全和利益,并在一定程度上对他国进行制衡和控制。     

Nonparametric Estimation of Duration Dependence in Militarized Interstate Disputes

A militarized interstate dispute (MID) involves military conflict between states with diplomatic ties and exists because two or more states have failed to resolve their differences through diplomatic channels. Jones et al. (1996) characterize an MID as the threat, display or use of military force short of war. They analyze over 2000 disputes spanning two centuries across the globe and conclude that disputes tend to be persistent once established. In this paper, I find that the passage of time can be a favorable factor in dispute resolution, and thus historical mechanisms for dispute resolution favor ending, not extending, militarized disputes. I emphasize the use of non-parametric procedures first to estimate the hazard function and then to estimate the benefits of negotiated settlements.     

“第五种权力”：美国思想库与对华政策

作为美国政治体系中继立法、行政、司法及媒体之后的第五种权力,美国的思想库一直在政府内政外交决策中发挥着重要影响。本文从历史视角分析了美国思想库在对华决策中的角色及其不同流派的对华政策立场,在此基础上进一步探讨了开展对美国思想库的公共外交对于发展中美关系的重要意义。     

Can World System Theory predict news flow on twitter? The case of government-sponsored broadcasting

Social media platforms provide world governments with the opportunity to distribute news content from their broadcast channels directly to foreign publics [Wallerstein, I. (1974). The modern world system. New York: Academic Press] World System Theory, which has successfully explained and predicted the structure of international news flow, is now being challenged. Specifically, these social platforms undermined assumptions regarding the one-way flow of information toward audiences and the exclusive institutional nature of the players in the international system. This study examines the unique case of government-sponsored news media and its international news flow. It finds that while the structure of the international news flow on Twitter exhibits a hierarchical core–periphery structure, non-institutional actors (e.g. bloggers) conformed less than institutional players (e.g. governments and news media) to that structure. This study also found that non-institutional actors assumed the role of bridging news sources and audiences, a role traditionally reserved for a small minority of elite news media. The growing and diversified pool of information mediators resulted in a more fragmented network of news flow, siloed, rather than interconnected. Research findings are synthesized and analyzed in the context of international broadcasting and social media scholarship.     

在曲折中前行的中德关系

本文回顾了自中华人民共和国建立以来,中德两国关系的发展历程。在冷战的背景下,历经波折,终致建交。但建交后,中德关系不可避免地打上了深刻的冷战烙印。随着冷战结束,两德统一,中德关系在曲折中迅速发展深化。科尔政府时期实现了中德关系正常化,施罗德将两国关系推进到了前所未有的高度,在默克尔时期中德关系日趋成熟。中国的发展需要德国,德国的发展也需要中国,中德关系的互补性决定了双边关系可望继续保持稳定发展。     

Sixty years of “peaceful liberation” at the Tibet Museum in Lhasa: triumphant modernization at the rooftop of the world

In recent years, China has developed an increasingly ambitious public diplomacy program to enhance its soft power abroad. Although several scholars have sought to assess the effects of this program, little attention has been paid to the Chinese governmental conception of soft power and its use in propaganda. This article explores how the state's view of soft power is transformed into policy through the cultural bureaucracy and, conversely, how it limits the program's effectiveness. The article concludes that the limited success of soft power is due to the following main factors. First, although China's public diplomacy programs are planned and implemented in ways that reflect its domestic cultural policy, they are rarely successful even in their home markets. Second, China's conception of soft power focuses on top-down, State-centered image management, thereby overlooking the relational and context-dependent aspects of soft power.     

周边变局与中国外交思维的创造性发展

近年来，中国周边虽然摩擦不断，但支撑中国和平发展的基本态势没有改变，中国仍处于为期20年的“战略机遇期”之中，而且在可预期内不会发生根本性逆转。不过，周边变局所引发的危机也预示着，中国与周边国家的关系已经进入深度调整期。为此，在中、短期内，中国需要因时因地调整某些具体的外交政策，防范周边“战略意外”的发生；长远看，中国周边战略思维尤其需要突出“顶层设计”，积极塑造继续有利于和平发展的态势。     

＂Who Are We？＂ Woodrow Wilson,the First World War and the Reshaping of America＇s National Identity

在美国崛起为世界大国的新形势下，威尔逊借助美国卷入大战和实施战争动员这一难得的时机，通过重新阐释美国的传统与特性以及利用德国作为“他者”与美国相对照，成功地使美国的自我形象与国际角色从19世纪的“共和榜样”和“自由典范”转换为“自由卫士”和“世界领袖”。威尔逊对国家身份的重塑不仅有助于当时的战争动员，而且解决了美国踏上世界舞台后的角色困惑与身份危机，为崛起的美国确立了长远的国家政策走向。他对美国理想、角色和命运的创造性阐释主导了美国人对自己国家存在意义以及美国与世界关系的理解，成为20世纪美国最有影响力的外交政策话语，对美国外交产生深远的影响。     

冷战时期日本对东南亚国家 ODA 政策的思想实质--以日本3个代表性的东南亚外交为例

20世纪五六十年代，日本对东南亚国家带有赔偿性质的经济援助反映出日本缺乏对受害国真诚的悔意，体现日本政府的反人道主义实质。六七十年代，日本利用 ODA 与东南亚国家开展经济外交，用狭隘民族主义帮助其实现经济大国梦。七八十年代，日本利用 ODA 积极参与调解柬埔寨问题的政治外交，用和平主义伪装掩饰其追逐政治大国的野心。ODA 越来越成为日本掩盖其外交政策真正意图的战略工具。     

刘湛恩与国民外交

刘湛恩是抗战期间为国牺牲的唯一的大学校长。他参与创建了中国太平洋国际学会、上海国际友谊社等多个民间国际组织,接待了包括孟禄、泰戈尔、范朋克、莫列德等在内的诸多外国友人,更多次出席国际会议,是1920—1930年代上海国际交流领域的弄潮儿、国民外交的重要推动者之一。抗战全面爆发后,刘湛恩坚持留守上海,一方面继续领导沪江大学,一方面不遗余力地开展抗战的国际宣传,坚决拒任伪“中华民国维新政府”教育部长之职。导致刘湛恩被敌伪暗杀的原因之一正是他在国民外交尤其是关于抗战的国际宣传方面的重要作为和重大影响。