霍兰的涌现性思想评析

霍兰在复杂性系统科学方面提出复杂自适应系统(CAS)理论.他提出的涌现性理论对创新研究具有重要意义.对霍兰的科学思想渊源关系、遗传算法、CAS理论、涌现性方面的奠基性工作加以详细研究和评述,进而确立了霍兰在遗传算法、复杂性系统科学上的奠基性地位.     

An alternative to model selection in ordinary regression

The weaknesses of established model selection procedures based on hypothesis testing and similar criteria are discussed and an alternative based on synthetic (composite) estimation is proposed. It is developed for the problem of prediction in ordinary regression and its properties are explored by simulations for the simple regression. Extensions to a general setting are described and an example with multiple regression is analysed. Arguments are presented against using a selected model for any inferences.     

Organizational Compatibility and Workplace Drug Testing: Modeling the Adoption of Innovative Social Control Practices

Few researchers have examined organizational variation in the adoption of workplace drug testing, but innovation theory suggests that adoption is more likely when it is compatible with an organization's values, previously introduced ideas, and needs. Using data from the 1997 National Employee Survey, this research models the effects of organizational compatibility, industry, and establishment size on the adoption of drug testing. The data reveal that compatibility, as measured by an organization's rules orientation, presence of an employee assistance program, and mechanization, is associated with the adoption of drug testing. As predicted, the adoption of drug testing varies across industries and by establishment size.     

发生认识论的哲学来源

皮亚杰的发生认识论并不是一个纯粹的发展心理学理论,而是一个关于认知的结构及其发生与发展的理论。发生认识论的建立有其深厚的哲学根源:它是在批判传统认识论中的经验主义和理性主义的基础上建立起来的。皮亚杰看到,无论是经验主义方法,还是理性主义方法对于认知的结构及其发生与发展的解释都是片面的,因为前者忽视了结构,后者假设了结构而没有注意到结构发展的自然进程。皮亚杰在对两者辨证综合的基础上,提出“发生学的结构主义”,指出认识的发生与发展是因为我们作为生物先天地就包含着这样的结构,而且是因为我们作为生物对结构进行主动建构的结果。     

A modified false discovery rate multiple-comparisons procedure for discrete data, applied to human immunodeficiency virus genetics

Summary.  To help to design vaccines for acquired immune deficiency syndrome that protect broadly against many genetic variants of the human immunodeficiency virus, the mutation rates at 118 positions in HIV amino-acid sequences of subtype C versus those of subtype B were compared. The false discovery rate (FDR) multiple-comparisons procedure can be used to determine statistical significance. When the test statistics have discrete distributions, the FDR procedure can be made more powerful by a simple modification. The paper develops a modified FDR procedure for discrete data and applies it to the human immunodeficiency virus data. The new procedure detects 15 positions with significantly different mutation rates compared with 11 that are detected by the original FDR method. Simulations delineate conditions under which the modified FDR procedure confers large gains in power over the original technique. In general FDR adjustment methods can be improved for discrete data by incorporating the modification proposed.     

Progress and cumulation in the human sciences after the fall

What do we mean by progress and cumulation in the social and human sciences? Recent thinking in the philosophy and history of science has led to an abandonment of some versions of logical positivism and of verificationism that had a strong deductive and theory testing orientation. What is to replace them is less clear. This paper argues that progress and cumulation can be seen as a process of evaluation and retention within an epistemic community. Scholarly disciplines differ in their social structure and in their epistemic and normative commitments. Since sociology is a fragmented discipline, progress and cumulation differ within its multiple subdisciplines, which to varying extents represent epistemic communities. Brief sketches of progress (advance) and cumulation in several subdisciplines are offered.     

基于遗传算法和文法的叶子生成模型

阐述了将两类技术组合的一种方法：用L-systems和遗传算法CA获取一种改写表达式描述树叶模型。L-systems用于构造给定改写表达式，而GA用于改写表达式的适应参数。介绍了用目标函数实现真值参数替换方法，研究结果表明，提出的方法能产生可以接受的输出效果。     

语言冗余现象在英语教学中的作用初探

冗余是人类语言的固有特征。冗余现象的研究在语言学中占据重要地位,它对语言教学的影响也日益受到重视。本文利用语言测试手段,通过实验验证了冗余理论在英语教学中的积极作用     

基于Simpson公式改进的FAGM(1,1)模型及其应用研究

本文分析了传统FAGM（1,1）模型建模过程中存在的误差,提出了一种基于Simpson公式改进的FAGM（1,1）模型。首先,基于分数阶累加生成算子和分数阶累减生成算子建立分数阶FAGM（1,1）模型。其次,利用Simpson积分公式对FAGM（1,1）模型的背景值进行改进,建立SFAGM（1,1）模型。进一步,应用遗传算法确定SFAGM（1,1）模型的最优阶数以提高模型的预测精度。最后,以中国人均GDP为例,对比分析GM（1,1）模型、Simpson改进的GM（1,1）模型（SGM（1,1））、FAGM（1,1）模型、SFAGM（1,1）模型的模拟结果,并对"十三五"时期的人均GDP进行预测,其结果表明SFAGM（1,1）模型比GM（1,1）、SGM（1,1）、FAGM（1,1）在人均GDP的预测方面有更高的精度,"十三五"期间人均GDP年平均增长率为10.64%,到2020年达到83146.97元,是2010年人均GDP的2.69倍,以2010年的人均GDP为基准,到2020年将能够实现翻一番的目标。     

考虑多种安全库存策略的选址-库存问题研究

考虑多种安全设置策略的物流网络的选址-库存问题,不仅是选址、订货、运输和库存的集成优化,还需要考虑多种不同的安全库存设置和转运策略。因此,本文深入讨论了二级物流网络中的六种安全库存设置策略,构建了六种考虑不同安全库存设置的选址-库存模型。在考虑集中设置安全库存时,集中安全库存需要通过转载运输实现,因此需要将转载运输成本引入选址-库存模型之中,使新的选址-库存模型更加科学合理。另外,针对六种新的选址-库存模型,提出了基于个体成本差异分配的遗传算法,迭代搜索选址、分配、库存设置策略的优化组合。最后,通过数据实验验证了模型的有效性：（1）安全库存与转载运输之间存在此消彼长的背反关系;（2）安全库存设置和转载运输策略对总成本的影响取决于两种费率权重情况。本文的研究可以为二级物流网络的选址、订货和安全库存策略集成优化决策提供参考依据。