Quantitative Risk Assessment of FMD Virus Transmission via Water

Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is a viral disease of domesticated and wild cloven-hoofed animals. FMD virus is known to spread by direct contact between infected and susceptible animals, by animal products such as meat and milk, by the airborne route, and mechanical transfer on people, wild animals, birds, and by vehicles. During the outbreak of 2001 in the Netherlands, milk from dairy cattle was illegally discharged into the sewerage as a consequence of transport prohibition. This may lead to contaminated discharges of biologically treated and raw sewage in surface water that is given to cattle to drink. The objective of the present study was to assess the probability of infecting dairy cows that were drinking FMD virus contaminated surface water due to illegal discharges of contaminated milk. So, the following data were collected from literature: FMD virus inactivation in aqueous environments, FMD virus concentrations in milk, dilution in sewage water, virus removal by sewage treatment, dilution in surface water, water consumption of cows, size of a herd in a meadow, and dose-response data for ingested FMD virus by cattle. In the case of 1.6 x 10(2) FMD virus per milliliter in milk and discharge of treated sewage in surface water, the probability of infecting a herd of cows was estimated to be 3.3 x 10(-7) to 8.5 x 10(-5), dependent on dilution in the receiving surface water. In the case of discharge of raw sewage, all probabilities of infection were 100 times higher. In the case of little dilution in small rivers, the high level of 8.5 x 10(-3) is reached. For 10(4) times higher FMD virus concentrations in milk, the probabilities of infecting a herd of cows are high in the case of discharge of treated sewage (3.3 x 10(-3) to 5.7 x 10(-1)) and very high in the case of discharge of raw sewage (0.28-1.0). It can be concluded that illegal and uncontrolled discharges of contaminated milk into the sewerage system may lead to high risks to other cattle farms at 6-50 km distance of the location of discharge within one day. This clearly underlines current measures that prohibit such discharges, and also asks for strict control. This risk assessment clearly demonstrated the potential significance of FMD virus transmission via water, and the results will be useful on an international scale, and could also serve as a basis for other FMD risk-assessment models.     

The effect of information on health risk valuations

This article examines the effect of familiarity with chronic lung disease on people's willingness to pay to reduce their risk of contracting chronic bronchitis, and on their willingness to increase their risk of auto death to reduce chronic bronchitis risk. We find that persons who have a relative with chronic lung disease are willing to give up more income to reduce their risk of chronic bronchitis than persons with no first-hand knowledge of the disease; however, their willingness to increase their risk of auto death to reduce their risk of chronic bronchitis is no different, on average, than persons with no first-hand knowledge of lung disease. This suggests that responses to risk-risk tradeoffs may be more stable than responses to risk-income choices.This research was sponsored by Resources for the Future and by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Policy Planning and Evaluation, Alan Carlin and Joel Scheraga, project officers. We thank Robert Mitchell for his help in conducting focus groups, and Caroline Harnett and Sari Radin for research assistance. Stan Presser, Sue Dowden, and Tim Triplett of the University of Maryland's Survey Research Center administered the survey. We especially thank Stan Presser for his suggestion that we sample relatives of people with chronic lung disease. We also thank Kip Viscusi, Wes Magat, and Joel Huber for making available their computer programs and data, and Ajay Kalra for programming help. Paul Portney and John Mullahy provided useful comments on an earlier draff of the article, as did two referees.     

Importance of active listening in treating workers with musculoskeletal disorders

Female assembly workers reporting constant neck and shoulder pain, despite ergonomically acceptable working conditions, were interviewed. As a starting point in the interviews, the patients were asked to describe their general situation at work. Their reports were fed back and discussed with company management in a wider group meeting and resulted in an improvement in their attitudes to those workers. A climate of confidence and well-being was created, which the women experienced as genuine. The workers' report of pains improved dramatically and absence due to musculoskeletal disorders was reduced by more than 90% during the following year.     

2013年东台市新农合住院患者疾病统计分析

目的：分析2013年东台市新农合住院患者疾病构成,为进一步提升新农合政策实效与医院临床管理提供决策依据。方法：对东台市2013年参保新农合住院患者疾病按照国际疾病标准（ICD-10）进行分类汇总,并对前五位疾病构成分性别、年龄组进行顺位对比分析。结果：全年新农合患者共计84958例,循环系统疾病、呼吸系统疾病、消化系统疾病、肿瘤和损伤、中毒和外因的某些其他后果疾病为该市主要疾病构成。结论：加强医疗服务和医院管理工作,提高医院医疗诊断、治疗、服务水平,促进新农合政策有效实施。     

中国围产儿先天性心脏病危险因素Meta分析

目的:系统评价中国围产儿先天性心脏病发生的主要危险因素,为其防治工作提供参考?方法:对国内26篇关于先天性心脏病发病危险因素的研究文献进行Meta分析?累计病例7 964例,对照12 929例?根据齐性检验结果计算各危险因素合并比值比(OR)及其95%可信区间(95%CI)模型?结果:先天性心脏病各危险因素的OR值及95%CI分别为:流产史1.69(1.24~2.31)?环境噪音1.28(0.39~4.19)?孕期检查胎儿异常2.31(1.25~4.27)?孕期服用药物1.88(1.57~2.23)?接触有害物质3.46(2.11~5.66)?近亲婚配史2.88(1.88~4.40)?被动吸烟1.16(0.69~1.95)?孕早期精神因素2.58(1.36~4.91)?父亲饮酒1.88(1.44~2.45)?孕早期感冒3.06(2.17~4.32)?结论:流产史?孕期检查胎儿异常?孕期服用药?早期精神因素?父亲饮酒?近亲婚配和孕早期感冒是先天性心脏病的危险因素?     

论清代女词人赵我佩的“病、瘦”言说

清代女词人赵我佩存词173首,收于《碧桃仙馆词》中。赵氏体至孱弱,工愁善病,其词多言"病、瘦",直抒胸臆,清丽婉约。赵氏"病、瘦"词是一种自我表达的方式,不但记录了赵氏受苦受难的身体感受,也记录了赵氏受苦受难的心灵感受。她通过疾病所导致的苦难和情感上的残缺,唤醒自己及同时代的女性长期以来对疾病苦痛煎熬及夫妻离居造成的情感缺失的麻木,找寻迷失的自己,并关注自己的生存环境和生存状态。可以说赵氏词以独特的"病、瘦"言说参与到中国文学现代化的进程中来,为后世读者竖起了一座"病、瘦"词的丰碑。     

2013年榆林市谷子白发病病害发生情况及对策

考察了神木县石炮谷、黄沙谷、黑九枝等18个谷子品种的展示田,每个品种都感染了不同程度的白发病;其发生原因有气候诱因、品种抗病性差、留种问题等;防治措施为轮作倒茬,及时清理田间病株,选择抗病品种防治谷子病害等。     

Segmentation,alignment and statistical analysis of biosignals with application to disease classification

We present a novel methodology for a comprehensive statistical analysis of approximately periodic biosignal data. There are two main challenges in such analysis: (1) the automatic extraction (segmentation) of cycles from long, cyclostationary biosignals and (2) the subsequent statistical analysis, which in many cases involves the separation of temporal and amplitude variabilities. The proposed framework provides a principled approach for statistical analysis of such signals, which in turn allows for an efficient cycle segmentation algorithm. This is achieved using a convenient representation of functions called the square-root velocity function (SRVF). The segmented cycles, represented by SRVFs, are temporally aligned using the notion of the Karcher mean, which in turn allows for more efficient statistical summaries of signals. We show the strengths of this method through various disease classification experiments. In the case of myocardial infarction detection and localization, we show that our method compares favorably to methods described in the current literature.     

Response-adaptive trial designs with accelerated Thompson sampling

In a clinical trial, sometimes it is desirable to allocate as many patients as possible to the best treatment, in particular, when a trial for a rare disease may contain a considerable portion of the whole target population. The Gittins index rule is a powerful tool for sequentially allocating patients to the best treatment based on the responses of patients already treated. However, its application in clinical trials is limited due to technical complexity and lack of randomness. Thompson sampling is an appealing approach, since it makes a compromise between optimal treatment allocation and randomness with some desirable optimal properties in the machine learning context. However, in clinical trial settings, multiple simulation studies have shown disappointing results with Thompson samplers. We consider how to improve short-run performance of Thompson sampling and propose a novel acceleration approach. This approach can also be applied to situations when patients can only be allocated by batch and is very easy to implement without using complex algorithms. A simulation study showed that this approach could improve the performance of Thompson sampling in terms of average total response rate. An application to a redesign of a preference trial to maximize patient's satisfaction is also presented.     

中华鳖聚缩虫病病原的生物学特性研究

本文研究发现,中华鳖聚缩虫病病原为聚缩虫（Zoothamniumsp）,其分类地位隶属于原生动物门,纤毛纲,绿毛目,钟形上科,聚缩虫属。聚缩虫（Z．sp）呈树枝状群居于中华鳖体表面引起聚缩虫病。动物应激试验证明,聚缩虫对次氨酸钠、石灰水、氨水等碱性溶液敏感,易导致虫体萎缩,甚至解体。