上市公司治理因素与财务困境关系的实证研究

对中国上市公司治理因素与财务困境的关系进行了实证研究。以1998~2005年被ST(special treatm ent)的公司及其配对样本共计528家作为研究样本,通过使用二元Log istic回归分析方法,发现大股东持股比例、H-10股权集中指数、股权制衡度、国家股比例、最终控制人类型、独立董事持股比例以及审计意见与公司发生财务困境的可能性显著负相关,管理者代理成本显著提高了公司陷入财务困境的危险性。而高管持股比例、董事会规模以及CEO的双职合一对困境发生的概率无显著影响。     

BP神经网络财务危机预警实证研究

财务危机预警具有重要的经济研究价值。在考虑中国现行会计信息供给状况基础上,构建了包含偿债能力、资产管理能力、盈利能力、成长性、现金流量以及会计信息披露质量的六大类预警指标体系。以沪、深两市上市公司为样本,比较了经秩和检验前后,BP神经网络模型的预警效果。结果显示:BP神经网络模型在中国上市公司财务危机预警中具有良好的应用价值,特别是经秩和检验以后,模型判别准确率显著提高,具有很强的优越性。     

Romantic Relationships,Relationship Styles,Coping Strategies,and Psychological Distress among Chinese and Australian Young Adults

This study examined the association between relationship styles, coping strategies, and psychological distress among 144 Anglo‐Australian and 250 Hong Kong Chinese undergraduate students. The results indicated that relationship styles (secure, clingy, and fickle) influenced psychological distress through their association with coping strategies (avoidance and self‐punishment). Society of residence was a moderating factor for the association between clingy relationship style and psychological distress. Females also reported higher levels of psychological distress than males. Among participants who had experienced a romantic relationship break up, participants endorsing clingy relationship style and those whose partners initiated the break up expressed more hurt in comparison, whereas those who endorsed avoidance strategy reported less hurt. The results of the present study also suggested that psychosocial variables (relationship styles, coping strategies) were generally more important than demographic factors (e.g., age) in predicting mental health outcomes. However, relationship styles and coping strategies may operate differently under different contexts.     

Unemployment and psychological distress among young adults in the Nordic countries: A review of the literature

This article reviews Nordic research, published from 1995 and onwards, on the relationship between unemployment and mental health among young adults. Cross‐sectional, longitudinal and time‐series studies are included. Cross‐sectional studies show that the unemployed experience more mental health problems than the non‐unemployed. Leaving unemployment is associated with increased well‐being. Economic problems, feelings of shame and poor social support increase the likelihood of psychological distress. The longitudinal studies show that unemployment increases the risk of psychological distress and attempted suicide, after initial mental health status and confounding factors are accounted for. The relationship remains significant when time‐invariant characteristics of the individuals are controlled for. The time‐series studies found no relationship between unemployment and suicide, but levels of psychological distress were found to vary with changes in the labour market. This relationship remained significant after excluding the non‐employed, indicating that unemployment trends have effects beyond those directly associated with unemployment.     

Maternal Hurricane Exposure and Fetal Distress Risk

Logistic regression and spatial analytic techniques are used to model fetal distress risk as a function of maternal exposure to Hurricane Andrew. First, monthly time series compare the proportion of infants born distressed in hurricane affected and unaffected areas. Second, resident births are analyzed in Miami‐Dade and Broward counties, before, during, and after Hurricane Andrew. Third, resident births are analyzed in all Florida locales with 100,000 or more persons, comparing exposed and unexposed gravid females. Fourth, resident births are analyzed along Hurricane Andrew's path from southern Florida to northeast Mississippi. Results show that fetal distress risk increases significantly with maternal exposure to Hurricane Andrew in second and third trimesters, adjusting for known risk factors. Distress risk also correlates with the destructive path of Hurricane Andrew, with higher incidences of fetal distress found in areas of highest exposure intensity. Hurricane exposed African‐American mothers were more likely to birth distressed infants. The policy implications of in utero costs of natural disaster exposure are discussed.     

财务困境的预测研究

财务困境预测通用的四种方法为判别分析、逻辑回归、神经网络和支持向量机。实证研究显示,支持向量机和神经网络模型预测的误判率较低,逻辑回归和判别分析模型预测的误判率稍高。     

公司经营困境风险的动态评价模型研究

以医药制造业上市公司为例,在一个特定的行业背景下,采用非配对取样方式,应用Log istic离散时间风险模型,对公司经营困境风险进行了动态评价。结果显示,股票的S igm a系数值、股权集中度、公司规模及资产负债率与经营困境风险显著相关。评价中发现,为了达到一个较好且合适的分类识别正确率,决策者必须在型Ⅰ类错误成本与型Ⅱ类错误成本之间进行权衡。此外,在行业内选取了经营困境公司与经营健康公司作为2个对照组,发现2组公司的经营困境风险动态演化过程存在明显差异,这种可视化演示方法对经营困境发生的危险时段有预测作用。     

现金流量在财务困境预测中的信息含量实证研究——来自2003-2004年度ST公司的新证据

本文选取2003-2004年度60家财务困境样本和120家非财务困境样本,分别运用单变量和多变量logistic分析检验了现金流量信息在财务困境预测中的相对信息含量和增量信息含量,研究发现:(1)在我国上市公司陷入财务困境前1年,经营性现金流量的相对信息含量仅次于资产报酬率和资产周转率,其预测效率优于其它应计制会计变量;(2)无论在财务困境前1年还是前2年,现金流量类变量在会计比率的基础上均具有显著的增量信息含量。本文的研究结果显示,从财务困境预测研究的角度看,充分挖掘现金流量信息的预测价值应成为未来此类研究的方向;从投资者角度看,现金流量表为投资者提供了决策有用的信息。     

社会系统的异化与精神苦恼的发生机制

现代精神的苦恼源于自我意识的分裂及其与他者意识的对立。那个外化的自我意识沉沦于世并以物化意识和理性意识的姿态同人相疏离。社会系统是自我意识寻求外部确证的产物,但它却作为一种外在性的物质力量支配着现代人的精神生活和人与人之间的关系。社会系统的片面发展催生了信仰危机、信任危机、情感淡漠、虚无主义等现代性病症,造成了人类精神生活的全面异化。“返乡”的自我意识必须摒弃物化和对立化的思维模式,在实现内部确认与外部确认相统一的同时,构建物质与精神、自我意识与他者意识间的和谐关系。     

上市公司财务困境预测方法的比较研究

如何采用适当的方法对公司财务困境进行正确的预测,一直是学术界关注的热点问题之一。基于国内外已有的财务困境各种预测方法及其结果的差异,我们在分析各种研究方法应用前提的基础上,采用中国制造业上市公司1999—2002年的数据分别运用多元判别分析、逻辑线性回归和人工神经网络对财务状况处于困境的公司进行预测比较分析。结果表明:尽管各模型的使用有其特定的前提条件,三个主流模型均能在公司发生财务困境前1年和前2—3年较好地进行预测。其中,多元判别分析要逊色于逻辑线性回归,人工神经网络的预测准确率最高。