从“官吏分途”到“层级分流”:帝国逻辑下的中国官僚人事制度

魏晋南北朝以来的“官吏分途”是中国官僚体制的重大制度变迁,本文从这一角度出发,审视当代中国官员的空间流动状况,提出以“官吏相对谱系”为特点的“层级分流”模式。文章从周雪光的“帝国逻辑”分析框架出发,借用史学研究和社会科学理论来认识和解释人事制度安排与帝国治理逻辑之间的关系。文章认为,从“官吏分途”到“层级分流”,这一人事制度造成了官僚体制的二元结构及其迥然不同的职业生涯、激励设置和利益群体,为中国官僚体制的运作打上了鲜明烙印。本文充实和扩展了“帝国逻辑”的理论思路。     

Market Transition,Labor Market Segmentation and Organizational Mobility

On the basis of data from the 2008 Chinese General Social Survey, this paper analyzes the changing organizational job mobility patterns of members of society in a segmented labor market. The structure of labor market segmentation is based on differences in the power of different labor sectors to distribute social resources, leading to further differences in their power of “attraction” or “repulsion” that influence people’s organizational mobility. These forces are strongest in the primary labor market, lessening the possibility that workers will leave their jobs and raising the possibility of cross-sector mobility. In the course of China’s market transition, changes in the power to allocate social resources have entailed changes in the structure of labor market segmentation, changes that have been reflected in organizational mobility. Our examination of changing modes of organizational mobility reveals that the structure of urban labor market segmentation has changed from being mainly systemic at the outset of reform and opening up to the current coexistence of systemic segmentation and market segmentation.     

流动人口的社会阶层、社会流动与未婚先孕——以上海市为例

采用二元逻辑斯蒂回归模型,从社会阶层与社会流动的视角对影响流动人口未婚先孕的因素进行分析.关于社会阶层的研究结果显示,育龄妇女的受教育程度与月均收入水平两因素的影响结果显著,受教育程度越高未婚先孕的比例越低,收入越高未婚先孕的比例越低.育龄妇女的户口对未婚先孕不产生显著性影响;关于社会流动的研究结果显示,育龄妇女婚姻的教育匹配与户口匹配对未婚先孕有着显著性影响,教育匹配的上向流动增加未婚先孕的比例,下向流动降低未婚先孕的比例.但户口匹配却显示出上向流动降低未婚先孕的比例,下向流动增加未婚先孕的比例.     

Mobility,Space and Social Structuration in the Second Modernity and Beyond

The recent social structuration theories speak about liquefaction. However, these liquid models fail to deliver satisfactory explanation of contemporary sociation; the thesis of this article is that this is due to insufficient reflection on space‐time. Three points are to be discussed: the questionable distinction between social and geographical space, which these models use to diagnose current patterns of social structuration as resulting from new time–space experience; the certainty of periodization, which privileges time over space; and the persistence of a ‘container’ understanding of space. It is necessary to work out a better understanding of the current time–space relations on the one hand, and to develop a method to grasp conceptually the meta‐change on the other. The second can be achieved with the help of the theory of reflexive modernization. This theory, however, does not offer much insight into the exact time–space relations, thus the first postulate requires further empirical research. This article, based on a study of mobile transnational professionals, attempts to fulfill both postulates and to work out its own theoretical frameworks for researching mobility, spatialization and social structuration.     

Occupational mobility of American women: Compositional and structural changes, 1980–2007

In this paper, I document trends in women's occupational mobility between 1980 and 2007 in the U.S labor market, and link these trends to two distinct sources: compositional and structural changes. In this context, compositional changes refers to the over time trends in the distributions of men and women in the occupational wage hierarchy, while structural changes are the trends in the relative standing of occupations in the wage hierarchy over time. The findings provide empirical evidence for both processes, indicating that the impressive upward occupational mobility of American women is a consequence not only of their increased access to highly paid occupations, but also of the higher wage increments in their typical occupational profiles relative to men's—a structural change not often acknowledged by sociologists.     

Should I Stay or Should I Go?

Abstract

Data from a longitudinal study of older adults in an upstate New York county (N = 333) show that poor housing “fit” increases the likelihood that older adults are currently considering a move, as does lower residential satisfaction. Those adults who said only that they “might consider moving” focused on health transitions that might signal a need for a new housing situation. Residential satisfaction predicts actual moves even when controlling for moving plans. Older adults may be “pushed” to make a move by a crisis, but those older adults planning moves tend to be “pulled” into housing arrangements with desirable features.     

A subset selection procedure for multinomial distributions

A subset selection procedure is developed for selecting a subset containing the multinomial population that has the highest value of a certain linear combination of the multinomial cell probabilities; such population is called the ‘best’. The multivariate normal large sample approximation to the multinomial distribution is used to derive expressions for the probability of a correct selection, and for the threshold constant involved in the procedure. The procedure guarantees that the probability of a correct selection is at least at a pre-assigned level. The proposed procedure is an extension of Gupta and Sobel's [14] selection procedure for binomials and of Bakir's [2] restrictive selection procedure for multinomials. One illustration of the procedure concerns population income mobility in four countries: Peru, Russia, South Africa and the USA. Analysis indicates that Russia and Peru fall in the selected subset containing the best population with respect to income mobility from poverty to a higher-income status. The procedure is also applied to data concerning grade distribution for students in a certain freshman class.     

High wage workers and low wage firms: negative assortative matching or limited mobility bias?

Summary.  In the empirical literature on assortative matching using linked employer–employee data, unobserved worker quality appears to be negatively correlated with unobserved firm quality. We show that this can be caused by standard estimation error. We develop formulae that show that the estimated correlation is biased downwards if there is true positive assortative matching and when any conditioning covariates are uncorrelated with the firm and worker fixed effects. We show that this bias is bigger the fewer movers there are in the data, which is 'limited mobility bias'. This result applies to any two-way (or higher) error components model that is estimated by fixed effects methods. We apply these bias corrections to a large German linked employer–employee data set. We find that, although the biases can be considerable, they are not sufficiently large to remove the negative correlation entirely.     

基于PSTR模型的地区间资本流动能力研究

 本文首次采用面板平滑转换模型对我国地区间资本流动能力进行了检验,考察了经济增长率、开放度和经济规模对资本流动性的影响。研究表明,我国各省FH系数具有明显的异质性,投资率和储蓄率具有显著的非线性关系。经济增长越快,FH系数越高,表明收入增长促进了本地投资;地区经济规模越大,FH系数越低,说明经济发达地区的资本流动性更大;开放度的影响不显著。本文估计出了我国各省历年的FH系数,由于受到宏观因素的冲击,各省的FH系数表现出共同变动的特征,表明宏观政策对国内资本流动具有重要的影响。     

时间和收入来源对城市居民收入分配差距的影响——对深圳市城市居民家庭收入变动性和收入来源的实证研究

 目前对中国收入分配差距的研究大多是静态的测度某一时点的居民收入不平等程度,缺乏对收入随时间变化的模式和收入来源结构的深入研究。本文使用深圳市2005年和2006年的城市居民抽样调查数据对中国城市居民家庭的收入变动性和收入来源结构进行了研究。收入变动性和收入来源多元化从本质上反映了机会公平的程度,深圳市的实证数据表明,现阶段中国城市居民的收入变动性和收入来源多元化使长期收入不平等程度小于短期收入不平等程度,家庭总收入的不平等程度小于单一收入来源的不平等程度。因此,进一步深化改革,建立完善的市场经济体系,关注机会公平是在收入分配领域构建和谐社会的有效途径。