基于分形理论下的外汇市场的预测

在全球金融一体化的大背景下，汇率的变动作为一个重要指标越来越被人们所重视，利用非线性特征来研究汇率问题已经成为研究的前沿和热点，将混沌与分形运用到汇率预测与汇率控制中是汇率研究的一个重要的分支。为此，分析了分形中的R/S方法，研究了转折点的选择；并以外汇市场中的美元、日元、欧元为例进行了实证分析，指出外汇市场服从分形分布； 运用该方法对外汇的变化进行分析，不仅得出汇率变化遵循有偏的随机游走，而且还预测出这三种汇率未来的走势。     

国内大中型客车市场需求预测

为从理论上探析大中型客车市场需求问题,运用图表分析法和直线趋势预测法分析了近几年中国大中型客车市场的销售情况和市场特点,同时预测2008年大中型客车的市场需求。分析认为：在公交优先政策的实施、旅游业的快速发展等一系列相关因素影响下,大中型客车市场将稳步发展,但竞争也会日趋激烈。分析结果表明：大中型客车企业应当建立完善的销售网络和售后服务体系,生产适销对路的产品,努力拓展海外市场。     

“铎声悠扬桃李香”——品原《重庆师专(1977—1997)校庆组歌》

文章主要结合笔者自身情感体验,从内容和形式等方面对《重庆师专(1977—1997)校庆组歌》进行了分章评析,并对该组歌的基本特点予以了总结性的论述。     

钢-混凝土双面组合梁极限承载力计算方法研究

提出用简化计算方法、截面全过程分析和结构有限元分析等三种方法对双面组合连续梁极限抗弯承载力进行分析研究；以某一试验梁为例，对三种不同方法计算得到的承载力进行了比较分析，总结了各种方法的适用性，对双面组合梁的设计和研究有一定参考价值。     

寒区隧道衬砌背部空洞积水冻胀力学分析

造成高寒地区隧道冻害的原因有很多方面，如衬砌混凝土的冰冻破坏、局部存水冻胀破坏以及既有裂缝裂隙水的冻胀破坏等。以鹧鸪山隧道为工程背景，通过有限元软件ANSYS对隧道衬砌背后局部存水冻胀产生的应力进行计算分析，说明这种局部存水空间冻胀对隧道衬砌可能造成破坏原因，为寒区隧道的抗防冻措施提供理论依据。     

列车蓄电池箱的有限元分析和实验测试

通过有限元建模，对列车电池箱进行冲击载荷的有限元分析，得出各个方向冲击应力和箱体变形，并和实验数据进行比较，为进行电池箱的优化设计提供参考。     

Bayesian analysis of human movement curves

Summary.  We consider the Bayesian analysis of human movement data, where the subjects perform various reaching tasks. A set of markers is placed on each subject and a system of cameras records the three-dimensional Cartesian co-ordinates of the markers during the reaching movement. It is of interest to describe the mean and variability of the curves that are traced by the markers during one reaching movement, and to identify any differences due to covariates. We propose a methodology based on a hierarchical Bayesian model for the curves. An important part of the method is to obtain identifiable features of the movement so that different curves can be compared after temporal warping. We consider four landmarks and a set of equally spaced pseudolandmarks are located in between. We demonstrate that the algorithm works well in locating the landmarks, and shape analysis techniques are used to describe the posterior distribution of the mean curve. A feature of this type of data is that some parts of the movement data may be missing—the Bayesian methodology is easily adapted to cope with this situation.     

Analysis of breeding bird communities along an urban-rural gradient in Berlin,Germany, by Hasse Diagram Technique

Breeding bird communities in Berlin were investigated at five study sites, which represent an structural urban-rural gradient, from densely built-up areas with sealed ground to green areas such as large parks. In this paper, we tested the Hasse Diagram Technique (HDT), an approach belonging to partial order theory, for its appropriateness to extract information about changes in species composition from our data set. As expected, the overall number of bird species was positively correlated with the urban-rural gradient, increasing from 12 found in the city center to 28 in an urban park. By HDT analysis, four different sub-groups of birds could be identified, contributing differentially to the increase in species number: (1) ubiquists, i.e., species found at each study site, (2) a sub-group, the species’ number of which was positively correlated with the urban-rural gradient, increasing with increasingly green areas, (3) a sub-group, the species’ number of which was negatively correlated with the urban-rural gradient, decreasing with a declining density of buildings, and (4) species, the distribution of which did not show any correlation with the urban-rural gradient. The results show that HDT is a suitable tool for formalized analysis of the pattern of species’ communities along an environmental gradient.     

改进的L1范数故障诊断方法

本文提出一种线性模拟容差电路故障诊断方法——改进的L_1范数方法。此方法首先运用蒙特卡诺容差分析方法,建立线性模拟容差电路模型,然后通过求解L_1范数优化诊断方程,以诊断故障元件,并在优化求解过程中作了线性化处理。     

贵州农村土地承包期政策研究

贵州农村土地承包期政策，即“增人不增地，减人不减地”政策，是贵州的一项极具特色的地方立法。该政策对贵州农村经济发展、社会稳定等曾起到了积极作用。然而，从法律价值层面分析，该政策不利于其价值目标的实现；从法律效力层面分析，该政策与现行法律相悖；从社会实证层面分析，该政策亦无法正确反映农村村民的需求，实须改进。