A Methodology for Seismic Risk Analysis of Nuclear Power Plants

This methodology begins by quantifying the fragility of all key components and structures in the plant. By means of the logic encoded in the plant event trees and fault trees, the component fragilities are combined to form fragilities for the occurrence of plant damage states or release categories. Combining these, in turn, with the seismicity curves yields the frequencies of those states or releases. Uncertainty is explicitly included at each step of the process.     

Drug addiction as a lifestyle

Drug addict rehabilitation programs receive a small proportion of the funds made available through the social welfare system. Emphasis has traditionally been placed on the pathological rather than the salutogenic elements of an addicted lifestyle. A new test of a person's sense of coherence in life (Antonovsky's 9-item Sense of Coherence scale) may be of interest in rehabilitation work with drug addicts, and in focusing more attention on this aspect of addiction treatment. Thirty drug addicts in treatment and rehabilitation and 10 former drug addicts were interviewed using the 9-item Sense of Coherence scale. The results obtained were compared to a well known test of distress, the 24-item Symptom Checklist. Drug addicts in treatment facilities had significantly lower mean scores on the 9-item Sense of Coherence scale (2.3) and higher scores on the 24-item Symptom Checklist (2.3) than both drug addicts in rehabilitatively oriented institutions (3.3 and 1.6) and the long-term rehabilitated non-using former drug addicts (4.2 and 1.5 respectively). The differences between the group in rehabilitation and the former drug addicts were also statistically significant. The levels of the two psychometric tests suggested a gradual movement towards normal values and an increased sense of meaning in life among the former drug addicts, contrary to findings by other researchers. The length of time before these tests return to normal values may exceed the observation period often used in follow-up at treatment facilities. Increased social welfare may follow if a disclosure of salutogenic possibilities in drug addicts is obtained. Further prospective research is, however, necessary to confirm our findings.     

Stimulant Medication Use,Misuse, and Abuse in an Undergraduate and Graduate Student Sample

In this study, the authors investigated the characteristics of use, misuse, and abuse of stimulant medication (primarily methylphenidate and variants) among students at a northeastern US university. Researchers sent an invitation to take an Internet survey to student e-mail addresses and passed 150 paper surveys in undergraduate classes, analyzing 1,025 (975 electronically) returned surveys. Sixteen percent of respondents reported abusing or misusing stimulant medication. Ninety-six percent of respondents who specified a medication preferred to abuse or misuse Ritalin. Men and women reported similar use patterns. Most respondents who abused or misused stimulant medication swallowed pills; 40% used intranasally. Reasons for abusing or misusing stimulant medication included improving attention, partying, reducing hyperactivity, and improving grades. Consistent with previous studies, results suggest that abuse of stimulant medication is a concern on college campuses. The results point to various reasons for and methods of abusing and misusing stimulant medication that may direct future research, prevention, and intervention.     

15%保丰1号种衣剂拌种防治小麦白粉病田间药效试验

进行了 1 5 %保丰 1号种衣剂不同使用剂量与多菌灵、三唑酮及空白对照对小麦白粉病的田间药效试验。结果表明 :1 5 %保丰 1号种衣剂能有效防治小麦白粉病 ,其防效优于三唑酮和多菌灵 ,以 1 5 %保丰 1号种衣剂 40 0g有效成分拌 1 0 0kg小麦种子对白粉病的防效最佳     

多元t分布的尾部性质及其在股票市场的应用

研究多元t分布的厚尾性和尾部相依性,并用股票市场的真实数据来估计尾部相依系数,从而说明在金融市场尤其是股票市场中,用多元t分布来模拟数据比用多元正态分布更合理。     

蒙元军队征战东南亚属地考

蒙古军在征战川滇的同时,还对东南亚诸国属地进行了无数次征伐,给中国人民和东南亚、南亚人民带来伤害的同时,客观上也沟通了与各国人民友好往来,在商贸、经济、文化都有密切交融。这场对外战争除蒙古军队外,主要是调动勇敢剽悍的契丹军和女真军参与征战,元王朝才取得祖国统一和巩固边防的战绩。     

脑科戒毒手术被叫停的医学伦理学思考

曾被大力推广的脑部手术戒毒项目,最近被卫生部紧急叫停。手术被“叫停”的原因主要是:防止违背生命伦理学原则,采用优后原则和遵循手术的临床验证原则。医学科研工作者在科技和利益面前首先应充分考虑到生命伦理学的基本原则。     

Phase I trial design for drug combinations with Bayesian model averaging

Various statistical models have been proposed for two‐dimensional dose finding in drug‐combination trials. However, it is often a dilemma to decide which model to use when conducting a particular drug‐combination trial. We make a comprehensive comparison of four dose‐finding methods, and for fairness, we apply the same dose‐finding algorithm under the four model structures. Through extensive simulation studies, we compare the operating characteristics of these methods in various practical scenarios. The results show that different models may lead to different design properties and that no single model performs uniformly better in all scenarios. As a result, we propose using Bayesian model averaging to overcome the arbitrariness of the model specification and enhance the robustness of the design. We assign a discrete probability mass to each model as the prior model probability and then estimate the toxicity probabilities of combined doses in the Bayesian model averaging framework. During the trial, we adaptively allocated each new cohort of patients to the most appropriate dose combination by comparing the posterior estimates of the toxicity probabilities with the prespecified toxicity target. The simulation results demonstrate that the Bayesian model averaging approach is robust under various scenarios. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Going solo: the social organisation of drug dealing within a London street gang

This paper presents a single case study of one street gang in one London borough. Semi-structured interviews were conducted with 12 gang members, or former gang members, and seven practitioners. The practitioners and gang members/ex-gang members reported different perspectives on how the gang was structured and drug dealing was organised. The gang members/ex-gang members suggested that the gang is a loose social network with little recognisable formal organisation. Although individual gang members sell drugs, the gang should not be viewed as a drug dealing organisation. Rather it is a composition of individual drug dealers who cooperate out of mutual self-interest. Therefore, some gang members are best described as independent entrepreneurs while others are subcontractors looking to ‘go solo’. The seven practitioners, however, tended to describe a more hierarchically structured gang, with formal recruitment processes. This divergence of perspective highlights an important consideration for policy and research.     

论辽与高丽的关系及辽的东部边疆政策

辽朝与高丽的关系为境外藩属国的关系。在辽朝统治的二百余年间 ,辽与高丽既有战争 ,也有和平交往。和平交往为辽与高丽关系的主流。辽朝重视对东部边疆的治理与巩固 ,采取了建立军事城池、派驻军队、严加防守、移民东部边疆、因俗而治、以夷制夷的边疆政策 ,巩固了辽对东部边疆地区的统治 ,并由此奠定了辽金元东部疆域的基础