基于GERT网络的应急抢险过程资源优化配置模型研究

针对应急抢险过程中资源需求与供应不匹配的问题,通过定义应急抢险过程GERT网络的基本单元,建立了一种综合考虑灾害自身演化过程及外界作用相互关系的应急抢险过程GERT网络,设计了求解不同资源配置情况下突发事件状态转移概率的极大熵模型;研究了应急抢险过程GERT网络的简化性质,给出了基于GERT网络的应急抢险过程资源最优配置的求解算法。为应急资源配置提供了定性与定量结合的分析框架与工具,为灾害发展态势的预测及其资源配置提供了新的研究方法和研究思路。     

地方政府危机管理中的媒体引导能力分析

新媒体快速发展和"市民记者"的崛起,冲击了突发事件中地方政府传统的信息发布机制,对地方政府有效应对危机、妥善解决突发性事件构成了新的挑战。文章在剖析危机管理中我国地方政府媒体引导现状及其发展基础上,认为创新社会管理模式,建立"多元主体"的社会治理模式是地方政府有效应对危机的重要途径。     

治水新解——对历史上若干治水案例的分析

治水小则影响人民的生产生活,大则影响社稷安危,所以治水不单纯是一个技术问题,而是蕴含了复杂的社会科学问题。以“大禹治水”、都江堰水利工程、治黄故事、三门峡大坝等历史事件为案例,从治水中的局部利益与整体利益、长远利益与近期利益,治水人的科学精神和敬业精神,特别是治水方法论等角度重新解读,认为早期的以解决“水量”问题为主要特征的治水经验与教训,对当下的以解决“水质”问题为核心的治水仍然有重要的启示意义。     

供应链应急援助的CVaR模型

企业间通过应急援助方式共同应对突发事件是供应链应急管理的常用合作策略,而应急合作目标是防止突发事件下的损失失去控制.本文引入CVaR来刻画企业在突发事件下的应急目标,进而建立供应链应急援助的决策模型,分析了供应商和零售商遭遇突发事件时的应急援助状况并给出了在一定置信水平控制下的最优援助额.研究表明:CVaR方法能够恰当...     

小康型乡镇卫生院突发公共卫生事件应急机制研究

乡镇卫生院防保科担负着卫生监督、预防保健、卫生宣教等重要任务,只有明确和充分发挥其在突发公共卫生事件应急机制中的地位与作用,实施矩阵式网络治理,提高乡镇卫生院卫生应急响应能力,改革现有的用人制度,吸引和稳定专业人才,才能加强和巩固我国乡镇卫生院应急功能,保障突发公共卫生事件应急机制的稳定运转。     

Time use surveys,social practice theory,and activity connections

Social practice theory (SPT) represents a growing body of research that takes the ‘doings and sayings’ (social practices) of everyday life as its core unit of enquiry. Time use surveys (TUS) represent a substantial source of micro-data regarding how activities are performed across the 24-h day. Given their apparent complementarities, we ask why TUS have not been utilised more extensively within SPT-inspired research. We advance two contentions: (1) ontological tensions obscure the relevance of TUS data in addressing core SPT research questions, and (2) SPT concepts do not readily translate for application in TUS analysis. In response, we operationalise Schatzki's (2019) concepts of activity events and chains to explore types and forms of temporal activity connection. Using TUS data we examine three activity events: sleeping, reading, and eating. Two types of temporal activity connection (sequence and synchronisation) are identified, together with four forms of connectivity (degrees of uniformity/diversity, sequential directionality, time-varying connections, and symmetrical/asymmetrical relationships). While practices cannot be reduced to activity connections, we argue that this analytical approach offers a systematic basis for examining the ways in which activities combine to underpin the organisation of social practices. Further analysis to compare activity connections across practices, between different groups of practitioners, and over time would offer a valuable resource to empirically examine claims regarding core processes of societal change. We further contend that SPT approaches offer insights for time use research by providing a framework capable of recognising that activities are dynamic and variable rather than homogeneous and stable categories.     

Explaining with Intentional Omissions

Determining the human activity that social processes consist in is a central task for the philosophy of the social sciences. This paper asks: which conception of agency arising from contemporary action theory is the most suitable for social science explanation? It is argued that a movement-centered, Davidsonian picture of agency is not suitable for explaining certain social processes such as strikes and boycotts because, instead of intentional bodily movements, they are explained by the intentional omissions of agents. I propose that instead of intentional bodily movements, social processes are better explained by phenomena in which an agent is taking an active relation both to her mental or bodily processes as well as to what is happening around her. Thus, to fully explain social processes, a comprehensive theory of agency that can account for intentional actions and intentional omissions and a conception of agency that includes both materialist and volitionalist aspects is needed.     

核安保事件应急决策的情景库构建与情景匹配研究

纵观国际社会形势,核扩散风险、核恐怖主义威胁对全球核电发展带来诸多挑战,加强核安保事件应急决策研究至关重要。根据突发事件的情景—应对的相关理论,文章从内因、外因以及应急决策三个维度对核安保事件进行情景切分和关键因素提取,提出了核安保事件情景库的结构和构建过程,并提出了核安保事件案例库索引和基于最近相邻法的核安保事件情景相似度计算方法对核安保事件与情景库进行情景匹配。文章运用的情景库和情景匹配方法可以简练、准确地表达核安保事件应急决策的信息和实现快速的情景匹配,可为核安保事件的应急决策提供重要的支持。     

The Relationships between Activity and Quality of Life for Older Men and Women at Different Ages in Taiwan

This study investigated the relationships between types of activity and quality of life (QOL) for older men and women at different ages. Based on cross-sectional data that included 220 community-dwelling elderly persons aged 65 and older in southern Taiwan, the results showed that the participation rates in many activities declined with age for both genders. Social activity and solitary leisure activity were significantly associated with QOL for old-old men, but not for young-old men. Only social activity was significantly associated with QOL for young-old women, but there was no significant association between any activity and QOL for old-old women.     

Sociocultural Contexts of Time to First Sex Among Hispanic Adolescents

This investigation examines the sociocultural influences on risk of first sex among a representative sample of Hispanic (primarily of Mexican origin) teens living in Los Angeles County. Teen acculturation (measured as language of interview) moderates the effects of gender on risk of sex, with less acculturated teens exhibiting the greatest gender difference. Teens living with both biological parents have significantly lower risk of sex and the effect of family acculturation (measured as generational status) operates through teens' language of interview. Neither measure of parent‐youth relationship (socioemotional support, parental control) is significant. Hispanic teens living in low‐density Hispanic neighborhoods have significantly higher risk of sex than do teens living in neighborhoods with higher levels of ambient hazards. The results highlight the importance of characterizing sociocultural influences at multiple levels of aggregation.