公共决策失误的界定及表现

公共决策失误是指公共决策主体在处理公共事务、实行公共管理的过程中,由于主体或情境因素的影响导致决策不当,给公共利益造成损失或造成其他不良后果的决策行为.评判公共决策失误既要进行理论评判,又要进行效果评估,还要考虑决策成本.决策失误的表现形式有决策错误、决策失效与决策和机会失误.     

科技期刊中差错的表现形式及消除方法

近年来 ,一些科技期刊中差错屡屡出现 ,到了“无错不成书”的程度 ,消除差错已刻不容缓。为此 ,作者对科技期刊中差错的表现形式、产生差错的原因及消除差错的方法进行了论述 ,得出 :差错的表现形式多种多样 ,其产生的原因也很多 ,但只要编辑思想重视 ,态度端正 ,并严格遵循规章制度 ,差错是可以尽可能地避免或减少的     

Heteroskedasticity‐Robust Standard Errors for Fixed Effects Panel Data Regression

The conventional heteroskedasticity‐robust (HR) variance matrix estimator for cross‐sectional regression (with or without a degrees‐of‐freedom adjustment), applied to the fixed‐effects estimator for panel data with serially uncorrelated errors, is inconsistent if the number of time periods T is fixed (and greater than 2) as the number of entities n increases. We provide a bias‐adjusted HR estimator that is ‐consistent under any sequences (n, T) in which n and/or T increase to ∞. This estimator can be extended to handle serial correlation of fixed order.     

Comparing the mean vectors of two independent multivariate log-normal distributions

The multivariate log-normal distribution is a good candidate to describe data that are not only positive and skewed, but also contain many characteristic values. In this study, we apply the generalized variable method to compare the mean vectors of two independent multivariate log-normal populations that display heteroscedasticity. Two generalized pivotal quantities are derived for constructing the generalized confidence region and for testing the difference between two mean vectors. Simulation results indicate that the proposed procedures exhibit satisfactory performance regardless of the sample sizes and heteroscedasticity. The type I error rates obtained are consistent with expectations and the coverage probabilities are close to the nominal level when compared with the other method which is currently available. These features make the proposed method a worthy alternative for inferential analysis of problems involving multivariate log-normal means. The results are illustrated using three examples.     

Bayesian Analysis of Instrumental Variable Models: Acceptance-Rejection within Direct Monte Carlo

We discuss Bayesian inferential procedures within the family of instrumental variables regression models and focus on two issues: existence conditions for posterior moments of the parameters of interest under a flat prior and the potential of Direct Monte Carlo (DMC) approaches for efficient evaluation of such possibly highly non-elliptical posteriors. We show that, for the general case of m endogenous variables under a flat prior, posterior moments of order r exist for the coefficients reflecting the endogenous regressors’ effect on the dependent variable, if the number of instruments is greater than m +r, even though there is an issue of local non-identification that causes non-elliptical shapes of the posterior. This stresses the need for efficient Monte Carlo integration methods. We introduce an extension of DMC that incorporates an acceptance-rejection sampling step within DMC. This Acceptance-Rejection within Direct Monte Carlo (ARDMC) method has the attractive property that the generated random drawings are independent, which greatly helps the fast convergence of simulation results, and which facilitates the evaluation of the numerical accuracy. The speed of ARDMC can be easily further improved by making use of parallelized computation using multiple core machines or computer clusters. We note that ARDMC is an analogue to the well-known “Metropolis-Hastings within Gibbs” sampling in the sense that one ‘more difficult’ step is used within an ‘easier’ simulation method. We compare the ARDMC approach with the Gibbs sampler using simulated data and two empirical data sets, involving the settler mortality instrument of Acemoglu et al. (2001 Acemoglu , D. , Johnson , S. , Robinson , J. A. ( 2001 ). The colonial origins of comparative development: An empirical investigation . American Economic Review 91 ( 5 ): 1369 – 1401 .[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) and father's education's instrument used by Hoogerheide et al. (2012a Hoogerheide , L. F. , Block , J. H. , Thurik , A. R. (2012a). Family background variables as instruments for education in income regressions: A Bayesian analysis. Economics of Education Review 31(5):515–523.[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]). Even without making use of parallelized computation, an efficiency gain is observed both under strong and weak instruments, where the gain can be enormous in the latter case.     

基于离差最大化的组合评价方法研究

本文提出了一种基于离差最大化的组合评价方法,该方法首先利用多个单一评价方法对决策对象评价值之间的总离差达到最大的思想将各单一的评价值组合起来,得到各决策方案的组合评价结果并对其进行排序;其次,设计并采用组合误差平方和对组合评价的效果进行度量。最后结合实例,将本文提出的组合评价方法与平均值组合法、模糊Borda组合法进行对比分析,结果表明该组合评价方法的组合误差更小,有效性更强。     

英语中无摩擦延续音/r/音位的语音特征研究

无摩擦延续音/r/音位是英语辅音中的一个较特殊的音位.它的语音表现形式比英语中任何一个辅音音位都要复杂./r/音位的语音特征是区别GA和GB的标志之一.因此,了解/r/音位的历史演变渊源有助于提高对/r/音位的认识.同时,正确掌握/r/音位的读音是学好英语语音的关键因素之一,因为它会影响到学习者的实际英语语音素质及口语交际效果.     

学生翻译实践常见错误例析--兼谈英语专业学生亟待加强的几个方面

本文分析和归纳了学生翻译实践中出现的各种常见错误,指出英语专业学生要想提高对翻译的认识、更好地掌握翻译技巧,必须重视翻译观的树立、汉语语言修养、知识面的拓宽和工具书的使用。     

浅析影响汉语旅游宣传资料英译的因素

本文从旅游宣传资料的定义、分类、功能以及语言特点入手,分析了汉语旅游宣传资料英译中出现的问题。通过分析发现：中西方巨大的文化差异是造成旅游宣传资料汉英翻译失误的主要原因,而文化上的差异导致中西方语言上的不同,因而译者不但要掌握语言知识,更应具有跨文化意识。     

音误现象的学理分析

从方言到外语、从古音到今音相互印证,通过个案,对音误进行描写,并作出学理上的分析.描写的是音误背后的动因,分析的是音误存在的合理性,但在有些情况下,规定应大于描写.