Estimation in the multipath change point problem for correlated data

In many experiments, several measurements on the same variable are taken over time, a geographic region, or some other index set. It is often of interest to know if there has been a change over the index set in the parameters of the distribution of the variable. Frequently, the data consist of a sequence of correlated random variables, and there may also be several experimental units under observation, each providing a sequence of data. A problem in ascertaining the boundaries between the layers in geological sedimentary beds is used to introduce the model and then to illustrate the proposed methodology. It is assumed that, conditional on the change point, the data from each sequence arise from an autoregressive process that undergoes a change in one or more of its parameters. Unconditionally, the model then becomes a mixture of nonstationary autoregressive processes. Maximum-likelihood methods are used, and results of simulations to evaluate the performance of these estimators under practical conditions are given.     

关于平均主义与社会公正的研究

本文结合新制度经济学的相关研究成果,分析了平均主义和社会公正的本质和由来,认为正确地认识平均主义和社会公正,有助于解决诸如腐败、两极分化、弱势群体等前进中所存在的一些问题,有助于社会主义市场经济的建立和“小康社会”的全面建设。     

Watching Dutch Change: A Real Time Study of Variation and Change in Standard Dutch Pronunciation

The study investigates phonological variation and change in two varieties of standard Dutch: southern standard Dutch (spoken in Flanders, the northern part of Belgium) and northern standard Dutch (spoken in the Netherlands). A new source for studying language change in progress is introduced: archived recordings of radio broadcasts. The study covers the period from 1935 to 1993. Changes in progress are studied by a combination of insight and techniques from historical linguistics and sociolinguistics. The outcomes of analyzing separate linguistic variables are presented, but the focus of the analysis is on the presence of more general patterns of covariation within the set of linguistic variables and on the possibility of distinguishing (prototypical) temporal and community-based varieties of standard Dutch. The results reveal a pattern of divergence between the two varieties of standard Dutch. The southern variety remained more or less stable between 1935 and 1993. Northern standard Dutch, however, changed substantially.     

农村家庭养老责任人的制度支持要素及其功能

家庭子女是农村养老行为责任实际承担者的观念认知,既是村落共识也是国家规定。 农村家庭养老责任制度由规制性、规范性和文化—认知性三个基础要素构成,其分别通过监督惩戒、价值导向、传递内化机制互为补充合力支持家庭养老责任人践行养老行为。 在农村关于家庭养老责任人的制度变迁过程中,规制性要素的制度支持日趋完善,但规范性与文化—认知要素的支持功效出现衰萎。 未来的农村养老,首先面临的就是责任人数量减少,养老负担加重的问题;养老的制度支持及其方式调整终将成为我国农村社会的“公众议题冶,需要国家与社会未雨绸缪。     

基于演化博弈的建设用地集约利用制度研究

基于演化博弈方法对城市化地区和农业地区建设用地利用互动行为进行分析并结合经验数据仿真模拟发现:不同区域经济增长和耕地保护的考核比重差异化须足够大才能减少不同资源禀赋地区间的非合作用地行为;“大棒”政策有利于促进地方政府间的合作,基于“大棒”政策基础上的“胡萝卜”政策则效果更为明显.地方政府利用双边垄断的土地一级市场进行经济增长的竞次竞争行为和征地补偿价格非市场化不利于地方政府间土地集约利用上的合作.因此促进建设用地集约利用需着眼于:短期内将用地指标配置与不同地区的土地利用效率指标、资源禀赋和经济发展实际挂钩;在此基础上建立惩罚机制上的土地集约利用激励机制并实现结余土地指标充分市场化流转.推动征地补偿价格市场化和集体土地入市改革,针对不同地区实施足够大的差异化政绩考核体系.长期看,当以土地用途的分区管制代替指标管控并辅之以转移支付、户籍改革、税收补贴等举措,在促进建设用地集约利用的同时促进耕地保护和区域的差异城镇化发展.     

域外国家应对气候变化地方立法实践及中国借鉴

在应对气候变化问题上,国际社会逐渐由政策行动向立法路径转变。中国作为世界最大的温室气体排放国,进行专门立法是提高国家应对气候变化能力的重要举措。在实施路径上,可以考虑首先推动我国地方省市应对气候变化立法先行先试,在借鉴美国、澳大利亚等发达国家地方立法经验的基础上,我国各省市可以根据地方实际,率先进行综合型、减缓型或适应型应对气候变化立法模式选择,确立总体立法框架和监管体制,并进行专项制度与保障机制设计。     

社会共治下的食品企业失信经营问题三方演化博弈研究

针对食品企业失信经营的问题,借鉴日常活动理论,从机会、动机和控制方法三个方面,对企业失信经营进行了分析。在监管机构传统监管与共治监管两种方式下,基于演化博弈方法,构建了食品企业、消费者、监管机构的三方演化博弈模型。依据企业失信经营获利的大小,从博弈均衡上对食品企业失信经营问题进行了研究,并运用Matlab对博弈模型进行了分析验证。通过对两种监管方式的效率和应用范围进行深入分析,研究结果表明处罚和赔偿可有效降低食品企业失信经营的动机;当企业失信经营动机较小时,传统监管方式即可有效威慑食品企业,从而使其选择诚信经营策略;当企业失信动机较大时,即便使用共治监管方式仍无法有效监管食品企业失信经营。     

An evaluation of the effects of a National Health Service Trust merger on the learning and development of staff

Although mergers are increasingly common amongst National Health Trusts in the UK there is limited research on how National Health Service (NHS) mergers influence the learning and development of staff. This paper bridges the gap in the literature, through a case-study of a recent NHS Trust merger. It gives an account of the delivery of human resource development (HRD) post merger as seen through the eyes of staff from across the merged organization. The data were obtained from 21 unstructured interviews, nine group discussions, two focus group discussions and a form of micro-ethnography. In addition, quantitative data were used for triangulation purposes. Findings show that power differentials, cultural clashes and unequal access to training and development amongst staff have resulted in hostility towards the new organization. However, the strong management structures for professional members of staff have facilitated knowledge exchange across boundaries in the merged organization. The paper concludes by suggesting that without senior managers dealing with cultural issues and inequitable development opportunities, a number of unintended consequences of the merger are likely to occur.     

Can former Soviet Union top managers of large industries become successful leaders of privatized corporations?

Management training as a facilitative process in organizational change is a complicated undertaking even in the most innovative companies in the West. The Russian context adds problems of cultural and management unfamiliarity with the socio-business and the political environment within which Western management trainers operate. In the early 1990s 180 Russian senior managers from four large state corporations participated in a training-needs analysis, which was to estimate the level of knowledge of how market economy concepts work in the West. They were asked to 1) state their organization's training objectives, 2) indicate their understanding of the process, and 3) indicate the level of their personal ownership in carrying out the training objectives. The results showed that Russian top industrial management had no experience of top decisionmaking processes, and individually they felt disorientated by the collapse of the former Soviet Union. Their historical understanding of their professional roles and distrust of the present changes left them demotivated and without any constructive personal aspirations. By 1998, after a period of focusing solely on financial auditing training, large Russian companies began to be interested in management training and development programmes. These findings have some basic cultural implications for Western trainers working with Russian management.     

Framing microfinance in Australia – gender neutral or gender blind?

In Australia, microfinance is gaining visibility as a distinct poverty alleviation strategy. Within the Australian microfinance policy and program discourses, the microfinance sector is framed as targeting both men and women equally. Yet at the practice level, the majority of loan recipients are women. Such a gender neutral framing is in stark contrast to microfinance policy and practices developed elsewhere. This paper explores how gender is represented in microfinance policy and practice in Australia, drawing on an analysis of the policy and practice statements of Australian microfinance programs. It is argued that the robust feminist assessments of the relationship between microfinance and gender equality that have emerged in developing countries could usefully inform Australian developments in this area of social policy, but that this shift requires acknowledging gender in the framing of the problem Australian microfinance seeks to address.