Understanding the Sustainability of Insurgency Conflict in Thailand

Abstract

This article seeks to model the insurgency conflict in the three southern border provinces of the Kingdom of Thailand: Pattani, Yala, and Narathiwat. In so doing, it will explore the sustainability of the conflict by representing it in terms of a conflict life cycle that is responsive to complexity and change. The cycle arises from the cybernetic viable systems theory of ‘living systems’, and is able to foster a better understanding of what is happening empirically on the social level in these provinces, in respect to a situation characterized as one of incessant conflicts. This conflict model that arises suggests that there is an interconnection between the agents involved, and their individual and interactive dynamics. The conflict involves five types of politically related behaviours that occur between two interactive agents: the state (engaged in searching for and making arrests of insurgents) and the insurgents (engaged in violent acts of shooting, bombing, and arson). These agents are studied to the end of being able to determine the precise interactive nature of the political conflict in which they are engaged. In carrying out this investigation both quantitative and qualitative approaches were used. The research was carried out in three stages. In the first stage, time series techniques were used to determine inferentially whether the conflict is both rational and involves interactive behaviours. Stage two adopts the Weibull distribution technique to assess the political conflict. In the third stage, a statistical analysis is conducted of the conflict situation in political terms. Finally, it is explained how the model and the methods used in this article may be used to deal with intractable conflict in other social environments, incidentally tracking the likelihood of conflicts being sustainable. Other agencies could utilize this approach in examining other political conflicts so as to be better able to prepare suitable approaches for coping with intractable conflicts to the end of fostering sustainable peace processes.     

Changes in mortality and life expectancy: Some methodological issues

Measuring and explaining the effects of mortality changes on life expectancy has been discussed for the past three decades. Different approaches have been proposed using discrete or continuous methods. Two basic ideas underlie these approaches. The first compares two different mortality schedules and quantifies the contribution of each age group to the increase in life expectancy. The second analyzes how the progress in the mortality schedule translates into progress in life expectancy. This paper discusses and compares the approaches proposed by the United Nations (1982), Arriaga (1984), Pollard (1982, 1988), and Vaupel (1986), identifying their problems, advantages, and the types of situations where each one can best be applied.     

The Evolution of Coding in Signaling Games

Signaling games with reinforcement learning have been used to model the evolution of term languages (Lewis 1969, Convention. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press; Skyrms 2006, “Signals” Presidential Address. Philosophy of Science Association for PSA). In this article, syntactic games, extensions of David Lewis’s original sender–receiver game, are used to illustrate how a language that exploits available syntactic structure might evolve to code for states of the world. The evolution of a language occurs in the context of available vocabulary and syntax—the role played by each component is compared in the context of simple reinforcement learning.     

Understanding the Downshifting Phenomenon: A Case of South East Queensland,Australia

A quality of life survey of a sample of households across the Brisbane‐South East Queensland region has identified about 28 percent of people as ‘downshifters.‘ They are defined as people who voluntarily make a long‐term change in their lifestyle – other than planned retirement – which reduces income and adjusts their lifestyle conditions. A typology of downshifters is developed on the basis of their motives for downshifting and their socio‐economic and demographic characteristics using a Two Step Cluster Analysis. Results indicate that the social and economic circumstances and the reasons and methods of downshifting tend to vary substantially across the clusters.     

Living in the shadow of OD: HRD and the search for identity

The paper attempts to describe the similarities and differences between organizational development (OD) and human resource development (HRD). While it is argued that HRD practitioners need to acquire some of the skills of OD consultants, these are likely to be limited to the development of personal skills and learning in the attempt to achieve intrapreneurialism and personal transformations. We argue that HRD is living in the shadow of OD because it is slow to recognize its roots in the debates of that discipline. It is therefore suggested that HRD will recognize its true potential only when it identifies its core knowledge and skills. We argue that HRD can find its essential identity in four main ways: by focusing on the organization's business strategy; by devolving responsibility to line managers; by adopting an employee-centred approach to learning; and by emphasizing workplace learning. However, a wider behavioural understanding and a greater degree of reflectiveness in relation to the politics of change and the skills of the change agent must inform this identity.     

复杂性与社会经济系统建模

复杂性是当前学术研究中的一个热点，由于缺乏严格的形式化理论，至今尚未形成统一的定义。文章从系统理论的处理技术的发展过程着手，直面社会经济系统的复杂现象，探讨了目前处理复杂性的可能手段和不足之处，认为理论和现实之间的矛盾主要来自如何应对系统的结构性变迁问题。经典的系统理论致力于特定时刻系统与边界的划分，通过对各部分之间因果逻辑关系的分析，建立的动态系统模型无法克服牛顿还原论的影响。只有从方法论和认知论的高度，重新审视我们的理论范式；关注进化理论和还原论方法的结合，并借助现代计算机的强大运算能力，似乎是一条可资借鉴的道路。     

Taiwan's identity in formation: in reaction to a democratizing Taiwan and a rising China

The formation of Taiwanese identity is a good example to make sense of the theoretical debate between primordialism and constructivism. Based on the two-level multinomial logit results, this paper proves that primordial ethnicity in Taiwan becomes less salient; rather, changing sociopolitical contexts turn out to be the dominant factor in shaping ethnic identity. Specifically, it indicates how the democratic transition has brought about various types of mechanisms, which smoothly disenchant the dominant Chinese identity. As the Taiwanese renaissance emerges to take a leading role in Taiwan's political platform, ethnic identity might be reshaped in accordance with this mainstream Taiwanese ideology. This study also shows that reformation of ethnic identity in Taiwan relies as much on cognition of state boundaries as on the evaluation of political-economic conditions on both sides of the Taiwan straits.     

Stability and Change in Kindergartners' Friendships: Examination of Links with Social Functioning

Stability and change in kindergartners' friendships were examined based on a typology of profiles (stable, fluid, loss, gain, friendless). Our purpose was to determine whether children belonging to the five profiles differed in their social functioning. The sample was composed of 2353 kindergartners. Reciprocal friendships and social functioning indices were measured using peer nominations collected in October and May of the same year. A series of repeated measures analysis of variance indicated that children in the friendless profile were less accepted by their peers, more shy, more withdrawn, and more aggressive than other children. Moreover, children in the stable profile were significantly more accepted by their peers, more prosocial, and less shy than children in the fluid profile. Lastly, children in the loss profile became less accepted by their peers and less prosocial over the course of the year whereas children in the gain profile became more accepted and prosocial.     

基于势函数的厂商演化机制分析

供应链系统中，企业能力的差异导致了在供应链中的分工的不同，各种因素的合力促使企业在系统中的演化行为，我们称这种动力因素为厂商势。企业的能力、信息环境和契约环境等因素共同决定了厂商势的水平，当其中任一因素发生变化时，厂商势相应也将发生变化，其状态也相应产生演化过程。供应链系统中的企业的演化机理表明，企业演化过程中遵循从高势水平向低势水平变迁的一般规律，对供应链运作管理提供了一个新的视角。     

和声分析中的“变化音”解析

文章着重探讨变化音解析的多种可能性,以及排除干扰、正确辨识变化音的步骤和方法。通过＂四步分析法＂使和声分析具有宏观、清晰的思路,快速、准确地掌握音乐分析的基本技能。