Reasons That Could Lead People to Divorce in an Evolutionary Perspective: Evidence from Cyprus

In the current research, we aimed to identify the reasons that could drive people to get a divorce. In Study 1, we employed qualitative research methods, and we identified 62 reasons that could potentially drive people to get a divorce. Using quantitative research methods, in Study 2 we classified these reasons into 7 broader factors. We found that being a harmful spouse was the most important factor for divorce, followed by incompatibility and in-law problems. We also found significant sex differences in several factors such as women indicating a higher willingness than men to divorce a harmful spouse. In addition, participants with children were less willing to divorce a harmful spouse than those who had no children. Finally, using second-order principal components analysis, we classified the 7 factors into 2 broader domains of reasons for getting a divorce.     

Social cognition,social neuroscience,and evolutionary social psychology: What's missing?

In this paper I argue that something important, and something social, is missing from contemporary accounts of social cognition, social neuroscience and evolutionary social psychology. Contemporary accounts of social cognition focus on cognition directed towards social objects, that is, towards persons and social groups. In contrast, early twentieth century accounts of socially engaged cognition focused upon beliefs and attitudes oriented to the represented beliefs and attitudes of members of social ‘reference groups’ and directed towards both social and non‐social objects. I argue that this earlier conception of socially engaged cognition should be integrated with contemporary research on social cognition, social neuroscience and evolutionary social psychology, since it poses a challenge but also an opportunity for these disciplines.     

基于心智模型的恐怖主义袭击扩展式演化博弈分析

政府反恐措施与恐怖分子袭击手段存在着相互观察、适应性演化的过程。本文首先构建了政府作为先行动者、恐怖分子作为后行动者的斯塔克伯格博弈模型,进一步建立了恐怖袭击问题的扩展式演化博弈模型。由于扩展式演化博弈的均衡分析需要考虑代际内和代际间不同层次的信念学习,造成了演化分析的复杂性。本文将"心智模型"概念引入到演化博弈,采取了心智模型演化解的分析方法,得出了简化后的演化均衡解。最后,结合新疆墨玉县6.28暴恐事件进行算例分析,比较怀特流形演化解和心智模型演化解的差异。心智模型演化解的结果表明,根据恐怖分子群体中选择袭击比例是否高于临界值,政府策略收敛到防御或者不防御。该求解方法通过将普遍接受的社会规范引入到演化过程分析,不仅简化了怀特流形的分析过程,而且均衡解展示了更为丰富的、更为切合实际管理问题的演化特征。     

网络借贷市场参与主体行为策略的演化博弈均衡分析——基于三方博弈的视角

由于监管缺失、信用风险管理缺位,导致网络借贷市场的违约事件持续出现,损害网络借贷市场的参与者利益。本文构建了一个包括网络借贷平台、金融监管机构和投资者的网络借贷市场参与主体的三方行为策略演化博弈模型,从演化博弈的角度分析了网络借贷平台、金融监管机构和投资者的策略选择对网络借贷市场运行的影响,并以拍拍贷平台为案例进行数值模拟分析。研究结果表明：不同初始值的三方博弈结果存在显著差异,网络借贷市场参与主体行为策略的演化博弈不具有稳定中心点、且不存在稳定的均衡点。另外,当金融监管机构采取"严格监管"措施时,惩罚值越高,网络借贷平台越倾向于选择"自律"的行为策略,随着投资者投资额度的增加,网络借贷平台选择"自律"行为策略的概率逐渐降低。最后,提出规范网络借贷市场参与者行为和风险控制的对策建议。     

Standing up to complexity: researching moral panics in social work

Moral panics are central to social work policy and practice. Voluntary agencies and statutory bodies (including governments) create and sustain moral panics in order to raise awareness of, and win support for, their own understandings of social issues and problems. This is not a neutral enterprise; on the contrary, moral panics often have consequences that are negative, whether intended or unintended. Far from leading to greater social justice and a more equal society, they may reinforce stereotypes and lead to fearful, risk-averse practice. This paper discusses one such moral panic in 2013 that centred on the story of ‘Maria’, a Bulgarian Roma child living in Greece. The paper explores the meaning and use of the concept of moral panic before unpacking this case-study example in more detail. We argue that the moral panic over ‘Maria’ has much to tell us about ideas of welfare and protection, institutional racism and children and childhood, as well as the connections between ‘private troubles’ and ‘public issues’. We conclude that social work as a profession must stand up to complexity, and in doing so, be aware of its own role in relation to moral panics.     

有限理性下的社保基金投资监管进化博弈研究

社保基金的投资监管是复杂的决策问题,无法满足主流博弈论“完全理性”的要求。因此从有限理性角度出发,分别建立了基金经理人之间、社保基金管理机构与基金经理人之间的进化博弈模型,求出模型的复制动态方程,研究不同情况下的进化稳定策略,并得到博弈群体的复制动态相位图。     

共享住宿平台监管机制的演化博弈研究——基于第三方监管视角

针对当前共享住宿平台存在的管理乱、隐患多、维权难等诸多问题,以及政府缺乏有效监管的现实情况,分析共享住宿平台的最佳监管机制的状态。文章将消费者参与度引入博弈模型,从第三方监管视角出发,构建演化博弈模型,分析共享住宿平台与政府监管部门行为的影响机理。研究表明：随着关键参数的取值变化,系统分别呈现出四种演化稳定结果,以及一种周期性的随机状态;加大政府的惩罚力度、提高消费者的参与度,可以引导系统向最优状态演化。从制度体系、声誉机制和信息披露机制方面为平台的规范发展和政府部门监管提供决策参考。     

地方政府引导下的集群企业群际协同创新演化博弈分析

随着国内外经济环境的变化,单一集群的竞争优势逐渐弱化。在地方政府引导下,通过集群企业群际协同创新,整合单一分散"小集群",形成整体"大产业"优势,是实现我国产业集群创新发展的重要途径。运用演化博弈理论及方法,构建集群企业群际协同创新的演化博弈模型,从动态角度分析协同创新过程中的地方政府及集群企业行为。博弈结果表明,知识收益系数、成本系数、相互信任程度、群际协作风险系数影响着集群企业创新策略的选择;集群企业可能选择协同创新策略,也可能选择独立创新策略,但只要地方政府不加以限制,集群企业最终会选择协同创新策略。     

跨区域大气污染联合防治中的地方政府 演化博弈分析

针对大气污染呈现出的复合型、流动性和跨区域的特点,将地方政府在大气污染联合防治中的相互影响总结为“同向外部效应”和“部分排他效应”,应用演化博弈分析法,剖析地方政府之间大气污染联合防治的演化过程和演化结果。研究结果表明：地方政府治污成本的降低、对不治理污染地方政府惩罚力度的加大、地方政府治理大气污染效果的提高、地方政府不治理大气污染可见性的提升、大气污染治理外部性的减弱等都有助于演化博弈的稳定策略向地方政府跨区域联合防治的方向演进,从而有助于提升大气污染的治理效果,达到改善生态环境的目的。     

广西沿边"适应-竞争-合作"式 城镇演化模式研究 ——以凭祥、东兴为例

新时代不充分不平衡发展问题突出,加大力度支持边疆民族地区加快发展的要求迫在眉睫。广西沿边民族地区发展总体滞后,城镇发展模式趋同;东兴和凭祥在沿边城镇发展模式趋同的情况下,在“适应-竞争-合作”式城镇演化过程中,充分利用国家政策、发挥比较优势、培育优势特色产业、深化内外合作,实现了城镇经济的跨越式发展。本文以生物学“趋同进化”理论为基础,结合新发展理念和东兴、凭祥的发展经验建议：广西沿边民族地区采取“适应-竞争-合作”式城镇发展模式,以创新增强各城镇内生动力,以互补合作促进协调发展,以绿色发展道路助推城镇发展的可持续性,以加强内外市场的联动性来深化城镇开放、合作式发展,以“省-市-县”、“县-镇-村”的互联互通推进共享发展。