对我国诗坛依韵唱和用韵艺术的回顾

依韵唱和是用限韵赋诗或依韵和诗的方式,表达诗人与诗人之间酬、唱、赠、答的友好关系,以交流诗人感情或思想观点的文学艺术活动。我国《诗经》中即有反映男女邀歌对唱,以表达彼此爱慕之情的诗篇。20世纪以来,许多诗人打破古代限韵唱和诗的框架限制,重视和倡导限韵赋诗与依韵和诗的文化遗产,写出了许多新型时代旋律的唱和诗篇。举例介绍了唱和诗中步韵、依韵、次韵、用韵、和韵的含义及其特征。     

An Improved Test for Continuous Local Martingales

We present a new test for the “continuous martingale hypothesis”. That is, a test for the hypothesis that observed data are from a process which is a continuous local martingale. The basis of the test is an embedded random walk at first passage times, obtained from the well-known representation of a continuous local martingale as a continuous time-change of Brownian motion. With a variety of simulated diffusion processes our new test shows higher power than existing tests using either the crossing tree or the quadratic variation, including the situation where non-negligible drift is present. The power of the test in the presence of jumps is also explored with a variety of simulated jump diffusion processes. The test is also applied to two sequences of high-frequency foreign exchange trade-by-trade data. In both cases the continuous martingale hypothesis is rejected at times less than hourly and we identify significant dependence in price movements at these small scales.     

Lag Length Selection in DF-GLS Unit Root Tests

We reinvestigate the empirical problem of lag length selection in unit root tests when using the augmented Dickey–Fuller test based on GLS-detrending. We extend the Ng and Perron (1995 Ng , S. , Perron , P. ( 1995 ). Unit root tests in ARMA models with data-dependent methods for the selection of the truncation lag . Journal of American Statistical Association 90 : 268 – 281 .[Taylor & Francis Online], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) work on this issue by applying the finite sample critical values calculated using the formulae proposed by Cheung and Lai (1995 Cheung , Y. W. , Lai , K. S. ( 1995 ). Lag order and critical values of a modified Dickey–Fuller test . Oxford Bulletin of Business and Economics 57 : 411 – 418 .[Crossref] , [Google Scholar]). Unlike Ng and Perron (2001 Ng , S. , Perron , P. (2001). Lag length selection and the construction of unit root tests with good size and power. Econometrica 69:1519–1554.[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) we find through simulation studies that the method of selecting lag length using the sequential t-test in the ADF regression of GLS-detrended series performs the best in most cases.     

A Review of Laura S. Young's Bookbinding & Conservation by Hand: A Working Guide

Abstract

University librarians in China face many of the same challenges related to serials management that confront librarians in the United States. The authors discuss the importance for librarians in the United States, especially those working with serials, to establish and build ties with librarians in other countries, such as China. Benefits of an exchange could include sharing information about best practices, exchange of serial materials, and working together on mutually advantageous projects. Acknowledging the growing interest in international library exchange programs, the authors relate their own institution's efforts to build international ties with Fudan University in Shanghai, China, and Shaanxi Normal University in Xi'an, China. In establishing these ties, the authors have traveled to China and interviewed librarians about serials acquisition, processing, and management.     

外汇储备与金融脆弱性关系研究--基于金砖五国的实证分析

外汇储备通过传导机制对国内金融部门产生影响,研究外汇储备变化对金融稳定的影响是国家金融安全的重要内容。本文选取中国、巴西、俄罗斯、印度和南非五个"金砖国家"作为新兴市场国家的典型代表,采用Johansen协整检验和Bayesian向量自回归建模方法,实证研究外汇储备变化与金融脆弱性的关系。研究表明,不管从长期还是短期来看,外汇储备变化量增加会提高金融脆弱性指数,帮助国家应对短期经济波动,因此,增加外汇储备有助于国内金融部门稳定,抵御经济危机。     

医疗信息共享对患者转移数量和服务质量水平影响研究

当前我国医院间存在严重的"信息孤岛"，医院参与医疗信息共享意愿不高，患者的诊疗信息被静态碎片化储存而无法充分有效地利用。考虑到医院进行医疗信息共享将降低患者转移成本，本文构建一个多阶段双寡头动态博弈模型研究医疗信息共享对医院竞争过程中患者转移数量和服务质量水平决策的影响。首先，根据是否存在转移成本，将患者分为新患者和经验性患者，借助Hotelling模型刻画患者的效用函数，分析患者就诊决策。然后，在政府价格规制和不考虑医院利他性情景下，构建了医院累积期望收益目标函数，使用动态规划方法，求解实现医院累积期望收益最大化的服务质量水平，获得了实现患者相互转移且医院在市场中共存的马尔可夫完美均衡。最后，根据医院参与医疗信息共享后患者转移成本降为零，分析与比较信息共享前后患者转移数量和服务质量水平变化。研究发现：在不同医院间本身存在患者转移背景下，医院参与信息共享后，患者转移数量增加但存在一个上限，增加的转移量与患者在医院间的转移成本呈正相关，与初始感知效用的差值范围呈负相关；医院参与信息共享后，均衡状态下的医院服务质量水平高于信息共享前的服务质量水平。因此，在不改变当前医保支付方式下，要加快推进医疗信息共享，政府部门可以根据医院的患者数量和服务质量水平变化对其进行定期补贴，以激励医院积极参与医疗信息共享，本文给出了这个补贴的量化表达。     

Analyzing time–frequency relationship between oil price and exchange rate in Pakistan through wavelets

This study analyzed the time–frequency relationship between oil price and exchange rate for Pakistan by using measures of continuous wavelet such as wavelet power, cross-wavelet power, and cross-wavelet coherency (WTC). The results of cross-wavelet analysis indicated that covariance between oil price and exchange rate is unable to give clear-cut results, but both variables have been in phase and out phase (i.e. they are anti-cyclical and cyclical in nature) in some or other durations. However, results of squared wavelet coherence disclose that both variables are out of phase and real exchange rate was leading during the entire period studied, corresponding to the 10–15 months’ scale. These results are the unique contribution of the present study, which would have not been drawn if one would have utilized any other time series or frequency domain-based approach. This finding provides evidence of anti-cyclical relationship between oil price and real effective exchange rate; however, in most of the period studied, real exchange rate was leading and passing anti-cycle effects on oil price shocks which is the major contribution of the study.     

“一带一路”倡议下大学国际化发展问题研究——基于云南省中外合作办学现状的考察

在"一带一路"倡议下，云南省近年来与南亚、东南亚国家之间的教育合作不断加强，取得了可喜的成绩。基于云南省与南亚、东南亚国家的中外合作办学数据，考察云南省中外合作办学现状，发现云南省中外合作办学还存在留学生生源面窄且学历层次低、中外合作办学规模小且办学层次不高、联合科学研究产出能力较弱等问题。因此，应从国家层面、当地政府层面、大学层面分别采取相应措施，大力促进大学国际化发展，完善大学国际化的体制机制与法律监管，搭建更多国际合作平台。当地政府应加强大学国际化的统筹规划、综合协调和宏观管理，省域大学应加大国际化保障条件的建设力度。     

南方丝绸之路上的民族迁徙、文化交流和节庆共享——中华民族共同体形成与发展的一个典型案例

南方丝绸之路不仅是一条民族流动的通道，而且是一条文化交流的通道。作为许多古老民族生活和迁徙的通道，沿线不同民族在移动的过程中，文化交流交融不断深入和加强，形成了虽然各具特色但又多民族共享的节庆文化。本文主要介绍南方丝绸之路上民族的流动和文化的互动、交融的历史，以及由此所生成的文化共享，为“中华民族共同体”形成与发展提供一个典型案例，为理解“一带一路”倡议、筑牢“中华民族共同体”意识乃至推动“人类命运共同体”建设提供一定的理论思考。