论民族自治地方政府机构改革的深化——基于新中国成立初期探索的思考

民族自治地方政府在新一轮机构改革中进行了历史性变革和系统性重塑，然而顶层设计与分层对接机制优化、机构设置细化与整合、运转协同和效能提升仍未完全到位。回溯机构改革史，中华人民共和国成立初期作为政府顶层设计和系统性构建阶段，是民族自治地方政府机构建设最富成效的历史时期之一。这一时期的民族自治地方政府机构建设强调权能配置和人员构成的民族性，逐步差异化设置机构、探索单一制下政府机构平衡设置等历史经验，可以为进一步深化政府机构改革提供有益借鉴。在新的历史起点上深化民族自治地方政府机构改革应以新时代中国特色社会主义思想为引领，合理汲取历史养分，进一步深化理论研究，完善法制体系，明晰特殊性职权和民族性职能，健全顶层设计与分层对接机制，创新改革模式，强化地方参与性，切实破解改革难题，推动政府自身建设持续走向深入。     

体验型产品消费行为的羊群效应及机理研究——基于电影行业消费行为的实证解释

互联网环境下消费者购买体验型产品时对网络信息的依赖性很大。因此，研究社交媒体影响下体验型产品的消费者决策选择行为具有现实意义。本文以电影行业的票房偏离及消费跟风现象为切入点，探究体验型产品的羊群效应并对其产生的内在机理进行解释。采集艺恩资讯的票房数据以及豆瓣的电影基本信息及影评等数据作为研究样本，从消费者"羊群行为"视角分析其对电影票房的影响。研究发现：在控制了质量等内生性影响之后，消费者羊群效应依然存在；产品特征信息对羊群效应起到了调节作用，从而形成理性跟随；采用预期差异模型可以解释消费者实现理性跟随的过程。研究结论对于电影行业宏观政策制定及对体验型产品合理进行营销推广提供了理论基础与实证依据。     

张克威的教育思想和办学经验--在50周年校庆之际对老院长的追思

张克威是中国著名的农学家、农业教育家 ,早年留学美国 ,抗日战争爆发他毅然回国投笔从戎 ,参加抗战和三年解放战争 ,新中国成立前后 ,开始筹办沈阳农学院 ,从此他把一生的精力和心血都倾注在高等农业教育事业上。他思路开阔 ,敢于创新 ,在办学过程中形成了自己的教育思想和办学经验。张克威的教育思想与办学经验有五个主要方面 :积极创办多科性农业大学 ;延揽人才 ,建设高水平的教师队伍 ;注重对学生理想教育 ,培养高素质人才 ;强调理论联系实际 ,推行教学、科研、推广三结合 ;发扬学术民主 ,培养勤奋求实校风。为此 ,“文化大革命”以前 ,沈阳农学院在国内外都享有很高声誉。     

大众与狂欢

狂欢是大众文化的一种重要的接受模式。它与以往的文化接受模式有所不同。但这种狂欢模式并不是大众文化时代独有的 ,其所以在大众文化时代再度兴起 ,有着时代的、审美的、心理的、社会的原因。这是一种不容忽视但需加以引导的模式。在一个多元文化的时代 ,没有或仅有这种模式都是不正常的。     

成长体验的女性言说——从《乌鸦之歌》、《怀念声名狼藉的日子》看池莉性别创作立场的位移

在当代文学中 ,池莉惯以“非女性化”写作而著称 ,但她的两篇近作《乌鸦之歌》、《怀念声名狼藉的日子》却显示着作者向“女性写作”的转变。文章从这两篇小说的女性叙述立场、女性成长的叙述话语和作品的审美风格等方面阐述女作家性别创作立场的位移     

Empirical likelihood confidence intervals for the mean of a population containing many zero values

If a population contains many zero values and the sample size is not very large, the traditional normal approximation‐based confidence intervals for the population mean may have poor coverage probabilities. This problem is substantially reduced by constructing parametric likelihood ratio intervals when an appropriate mixture model can be found. In the context of survey sampling, however, there is a general preference for making minimal assumptions about the population under study. The authors have therefore investigated the coverage properties of nonparametric empirical likelihood confidence intervals for the population mean. They show that under a variety of hypothetical populations, these intervals often outperformed parametric likelihood intervals by having more balanced coverage rates and larger lower bounds. The authors illustrate their methodology using data from the Canadian Labour Force Survey for the year 2000.     

论礼貌在交际中的识解

礼貌是一个非常复杂的问题,它的识解需要语言内、外的知识。礼貌既要通过语言知识如语调,字、词和句来识解,又要借助人的常识和对语境中的认知能力。礼貌是即时即景的,说话人与受话人的个人经历、文化背景和合作对礼貌起了很大的作用。情景及其它非语言因素也起了不可忽视的作用,通过语言体现的礼貌因人因情景因文化而异。     

Non-ignorable missing covariate data in survival analysis: a case-study of an International Breast Cancer Study Group trial

Summary.  Non-ignorable missing data, a serious problem in both clinical trials and observational studies, can lead to biased inferences. Quality-of-life measures have become increasingly popular in clinical trials. However, these measures are often incompletely observed, and investigators may suspect that missing quality-of-life data are likely to be non-ignorable. Although several recent references have addressed missing covariates in survival analysis, they all required the assumption that missingness is at random or that all covariates are discrete. We present a method for estimating the parameters in the Cox proportional hazards model when missing covariates may be non-ignorable and continuous or discrete. Our method is useful in reducing the bias and improving efficiency in the presence of missing data. The methodology clearly specifies assumptions about the missing data mechanism and, through sensitivity analysis, helps investigators to understand the potential effect of missing data on study results.     

Merging information for semiparametric density estimation

Summary.  The density ratio model specifies that the likelihood ratio of m −1 probability density functions with respect to the m th is of known parametric form without reference to any parametric model. We study the semiparametric inference problem that is related to the density ratio model by appealing to the methodology of empirical likelihood. The combined data from all the samples leads to more efficient kernel density estimators for the unknown distributions. We adopt variants of well-established techniques to choose the smoothing parameter for the density estimators proposed.     

Assessing goodness-of-fit of categorical regression models based on case-control data

Demonstrated equivalence between a categorical regression model based on case‐control data and an I‐sample semiparametric selection bias model leads to a new goodness‐of‐fit test. The proposed test statistic is an extension of an existing Kolmogorov–Smirnov‐type statistic and is the weighted average of the absolute differences between two estimated distribution functions in each response category. The paper establishes an optimal property for the maximum semiparametric likelihood estimator of the parameters in the I‐sample semiparametric selection bias model. It also presents a bootstrap procedure, some simulation results and an analysis of two real datasets.