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排序方式： 共有466条查询结果，搜索用时 15 毫秒
461.
Operational risk management of autonomous vehicles in extreme environments is heavily dependent on expert judgments and, in particular, judgments of the likelihood that a failure mitigation action, via correction and prevention, will annul the consequences of a specific fault. However, extant research has not examined the reliability of experts in estimating the probability of failure mitigation. For systems operations in extreme environments, the probability of failure mitigation is taken as a proxy of the probability of a fault not reoccurring. Using a priori expert judgments for an autonomous underwater vehicle mission in the Arctic and a posteriori mission field data, we subsequently developed a generalized linear model that enabled us to investigate this relationship. We found that the probability of failure mitigation alone cannot be used as a proxy for the probability of fault not reoccurring. We conclude that it is also essential to include the effort to implement the failure mitigation when estimating the probability of fault not reoccurring. The effort is the time taken by a person (measured in person-months) to execute the task required to implement the fault correction action. We show that once a modicum of operational data is obtained, it is possible to define a generalized linear logistic model to estimate the probability a fault not reoccurring. We discuss how our findings are important to all autonomous vehicle operations and how similar operations can benefit from revising expert judgments of risk mitigation to take account of the effort required to reduce key risks. 相似文献
462.
463.
《Research Synthesis Methods》2018,9(1):132-140
We describe a combination of methods for assessing the effectiveness of complex interventions, especially where substantial heterogeneity with regard to the population, intervention, comparison, outcomes, and study design of interest is expected. We applied these methods in a recent systematic review of the effectiveness of reinforced home‐based palliative care (rHBPC) interventions, which included home‐based care with an additional and explicit component of lay caregiver support. We first summarized the identified evidence, deemed inappropriate for statistical pooling, graphically by creating harvest plots. Although very useful as a tool for summary and presentation of overall effectiveness, such graphical summary approaches may obscure relevant differences between studies. Thus, we then used a gap analysis and conducted expert consultations to look beyond the aggregate level at how the identified evidence of effectiveness may be explained. The goal of these supplemental methods was to step outside of the conventional systematic review and explore this heterogeneity from a broader perspective, based on the experience of palliative care researchers and practitioners. The gap analysis and expert consultations provided valuable input into possible underlying explanations in the evidence, which could be helpful in the further adaptation and testing of existing rHBPC interventions or the development and evaluation of new ones. We feel that such a combination of methods could prove accessible, understandable, and useful in informing decisions and could thus help increase the relevance of systematic reviews to the decision‐making process. 相似文献
464.
《Risk analysis》2016,36(2):191-202
We live in an age that increasingly calls for national or regional management of global risks. This article discusses the contributions that expert elicitation can bring to efforts to manage global risks and identifies challenges faced in conducting expert elicitation at this scale. In doing so it draws on lessons learned from conducting an expert elicitation as part of the World Health Organizations (WHO) initiative to estimate the global burden of foodborne disease; a study commissioned by the Foodborne Disease Epidemiology Reference Group (FERG). Expert elicitation is designed to fill gaps in data and research using structured, transparent methods. Such gaps are a significant challenge for global risk modeling. Experience with the WHO FERG expert elicitation shows that it is feasible to conduct an expert elicitation at a global scale, but that challenges do arise, including: defining an informative, yet feasible geographical structure for the elicitation; defining what constitutes expertise in a global setting; structuring international, multidisciplinary expert panels; and managing demands on experts’ time in the elicitation. This article was written as part of a workshop, “Methods for Research Synthesis: A Cross‐Disciplinary Approach” held at the Harvard Center for Risk Analysis on October 13, 2013. 相似文献
465.
张东平 《重庆大学学报(社会科学版)》2010,16(6):40-43
文章在对安全评估方法进行分析介绍的基础上,提出了基于专家系统的安全评估方法,并将该方法应用于在用电梯的安全状况分级中,通过与传统在用电梯安全评估方法的对比发现,该方法可以达到在用电梯安全状况分级结果的客观性、科学性、系统性、可操作性和实时性的要求。 相似文献
466.
欧龙松 《重庆邮电大学学报(社会科学版)》2015,27(5):50-52
证人因路途遥远等原因不能出庭作证,一直是庭审过程中的一大难题.控辩双方的普遍做法是用调查笔录替代证人证言,而一纸笔录非常不利于查明案件事实,其真实性、合法性均得不到保障,证明力较弱.远程作证能够解决这一难题,有助于实现控辩双方的对抗.远程作证的证明力大大高于同等情况下的其他作证方式,它不仅保护控辩双方的权利,还节约社会资源.但现目前远程作证模式多样,着重论述"法院协助"远程作证模式,从取证、查证、质证、认证的角度来分析"法院协助"远程作证模式及其证明力. 相似文献