Accuracy,confidence and consensus in bayesian hypothesis inference

Interest centres on a group of statisticians , each supplied with the same n sample datapoint sandmaking formal Bayesian inference with a common likelihood function but differing prior knowledge and utility functions.

Definitions are proposed which quantify, in a commensurable way, the inference processes of “accuracy”, “confidence” and “consensus” for the case of hypothesis inference with a fixed sample size n.

The general significance of comparing the three quantifiers is considered. As n increases the asymptotic behaviour of the quantifiers is evaluated and it is found that the three rates of convergence are of the same order as a function of n. The results are interpreted and some of their implications are discussed.     

A Bayesian mixture of experts approach to covariate misclassification

This article considers misclassification of categorical covariates in the context of regression analysis; if unaccounted for, such errors usually result in mis-estimation of model parameters. With the presence of additional covariates, we exploit the fact that explicitly modelling non-differential misclassification with respect to the response leads to a mixture regression representation. Under the framework of mixture of experts, we enable the reclassification probabilities to vary with other covariates, a situation commonly caused by misclassification that is differential on certain covariates and/or by dependence between the misclassified and additional covariates. Using Bayesian inference, the mixture approach combines learning from data with external information on the magnitude of errors when it is available. In addition to proving the theoretical identifiability of the mixture of experts approach, we study the amount of efficiency loss resulting from covariate misclassification and the usefulness of external information in mitigating such loss. The method is applied to adjust for misclassification on self-reported cocaine use in the Longitudinal Studies of HIV-Associated Lung Infections and Complications.     

Obfuscating Child Sexual Abuse II: Listening to Survivors

The reality of the extent and experience of child sexual abuse cannot be revealed while children are unable to ‘stand up and be counted’. Limited alternatives, lack of information and dependence on adults prevent the true scale of the problem being appreciated. Similarly, media and legal treatment of abused children also operate to suppress the truth. The expertise and knowledge of those who have suffered abuse need to be acknowledged and utilized in order that child sexual abuse can no longer be obfuscated. © 1997 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

论我国民法典中专家责任的立法

在我国,专家责任的立法是一个新课题,我国民法典应给予专家责任以独立的空间.是借鉴德国的立法将其放入合同法中,还是像美国那样按侵权行为法来处理,抑或作为职业责任单独规制?法律必须做出回应,以求维护社会秩序和经济秩序.     

THE END OF THE ART CONNOISSEUR? EXPERTS AND KNOWLEDGE PRODUCTION IN THE VISUAL ARTS IN THE DIGITAL AGE

In this digital age, declarations surface of the death of the expert and the democratization of information. Crowd wisdom is seen as the new guide in constructing and evaluating knowledge. In the context of the art world, this tension between the amateurs and the experts becomes particularly pronounced as popular meets high culture. Questions arise such as: what is the role of the expert in the evaluation of art in contemporary times? Do social media dismantle age-old hierarchies and established priesthoods in the art world? And can we assume that mass participation in valuation results in better judgments? This article addresses such popular notions of participation and expertise concerning social media in the art world through a historical lens by re-examining and positioning art experts from past to present. Particularly, characteristics of intermediaries in the art market are examined closely regarding their strategies in knowledge production and the establishment of expertise. This historical situatedness enables us to move beyond the hype of new media expectations, generating more appropriate avenues of investigation to better grasp possible changes amongst actors within the contemporary art world. This examination is not just theoretically relevant but practically so, given current pressures on art institutions to embrace and reach out to new audiences online.     

The perceptions of human resource development professionals in Taiwan regarding their working relationships with subject matter experts (SMEs) during the training design process

While the literature supports the importance of establishing a relationship between designers and subject matter experts (SMEs) in the training design process, this approach is not followed in all global practices. The purpose of this study was to identify the perceptions of human resource development professionals in Taiwan regarding their working relationships with SMEs. The respondents of the study were HRD professionals who worked in high-tech companies located in a science park in Taiwan. The study found that a significant relationship exists between the ability to work with SMEs and current ability in the training design process among HRD professionals who had worked with SMEs. This study provides implications for the professional development of HRD practitioners and HRD practice in Taiwan companies. Cross-cultural issues are discussed to explain inconsistencies between the results and US-based perspectives on the training design process.     

地方环境立法中的专家角色初探——以《珠海市环境保护条例》修订为例

专家参与地方环境立法是被普遍认同的解决地方环境立法中存在的问题的良好方式,但专家参与立法的实际效果却并没有达到最理想的效果,其原因在于专家没有很好的实现角色与功能的转换.通过专家参与珠海市地方环境立法的实践,探讨了地方立法中的专家身份、专家功能、专家工作等问题,对专家参与地方环境立法的基本同题进行了总结.     

Rethinking the policy influence of experts: From general characterizations to analysis of variation

This paper first surveys the four principal positions in the debate about the policy influence of professional experts — technocracy, extensive mandates, limited mandates, and servants of power — and finds none entirely satisfactory. While the limited mandates position is the best general characterization of the policy influence of experts, many instances reveal more extensive influence. The papers argues for shifting the discussion from general characterizations to the systematic analysis of variation in the extent and significance of professional influence. A framework for analyzing this variation is proposed. The framework highlights the importance of depoliticization, the framing of issues as narrowly technical or involving the protection of a central cultural value, political situations that encourage the informal capture of power by professional experts or the delegation of power to experts, and the differing level of legitimacy enjoyed by professional occupations, based on their centrality in social regulation.     

Understanding the Role of National Development Experts in Development Ethnography

International aid architecture has created a space for development experts to operationalise development policies in various capacity. A growing body of literature highlights the agency of this group through an ethnographic lens for deepening the understanding of development practice. However, this article reveals that there is a gap in the existing literature as the roles of national development experts (NDEs) remain rather unexplored in development. This article aims to bridge this gap by introducing the NDEs as an unexplored actor in development and setting an agenda for further research. Drawing on a Bangladesh case this article argues that not only will the accounts of NDEs deepen the existing scholarship but also without their reflections we will only have partial development ethnographies.