论高校校史编纂中的几个问题

根据编纂校史的经验 ,认为科学地分析前人遗存的器物 ,是了解历史的重要途径 ;同时主张实事求是地写好名师传记和认真总结学校的文化传统     

Flexible modeling of conditional distributions using smooth mixtures of asymmetric student t densities

A general model is proposed for flexibly estimating the density of a continuous response variable conditional on a possibly high-dimensional set of covariates. The model is a finite mixture of asymmetric student t densities with covariate-dependent mixture weights. The four parameters of the components, the mean, degrees of freedom, scale and skewness, are all modeled as functions of the covariates. Inference is Bayesian and the computation is carried out using Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation. To enable model parsimony, a variable selection prior is used in each set of covariates and among the covariates in the mixing weights. The model is used to analyze the distribution of daily stock market returns, and shown to more accurately forecast the distribution of returns than other widely used models for financial data.     

The use of utilities and experts in decision-making

In the process of decision-making the decision-maker may be able to consult an expert or experts or there may be no experts available. Four different situations that the decision-maker may be confronted with, are considered. The utilities of the decision-maker are used in this decision-making process to obtain his Bayes decision. The four different situations are illustrated by an example.     

国内同行评议专家库研究综述

基于同行评议专家库在同行评议中的重要地位,文章采用文献调研法从同行评议专家的指标体系、同行评议专家的产生方式、同行评议专家库的构建技术以及如何从同行评议专家库中选择专家四个方面对国内关于同行评议专家库的研究现状进行了详细的调研,并在对研究现状进行总结的基础上提出将来需要继续深入研究的领域。     

Expert and Public Perception of Risk from Biotechnology

Risk perceptions of a series of biotechnology applications were examined in a public (nonexpert) sample and an expert sample. Compared with the experts, the public perceived all biotechnology applications as more risky. Both groups perceived food-related applications to be riskier than medical applications. Compared with the public, experts perceived both food and medical applications as less harmful and more useful. Experts also judged the risks posed from medical biotechnology applications as more familiar and acknowledged by people and science. Lay estimates of the risk of food applications were predicted by potential harm, potential benefits, science knowledge, and familiarity; experts' estimates were predicted only by harm and benefits. Lay estimates of the risk of medical applications were predicted by potential harm; experts' estimates were predicted by potential benefits, number and type of people exposed, and science knowledge. We discuss the implications of the results for risk communication about and management of different types of biotechnologies.     

Coaching variables for regression and classification

In a regression or classification setting where we wish to predict Y from x1,x2,..., xp, we suppose that an additional set of coaching variables z1,z2,..., zm are available in our training sample. These might be variables that are difficult to measure, and they will not be available when we predict Y from x1,x2,..., xp in the future. We consider two methods of making use of the coaching variables in order to improve the prediction of Y from x1,x2,..., xp. The relative merits of these approaches are discussed and compared in a number of examples.     

关于中国人“美盲更比文盲多”的学术批评——与吴冠中先生商榷

"美盲"是吴冠中先生自造出来的一个词。吴先生断言中国人"美盲更比文盲多"之论不能成立:以不欣赏现代派雕塑家亨利·摩尔的作品作为认定"美盲"的标准是荒谬的;欣赏美是人类的天性,正常人中不存在"美盲";断言中国人"美盲更比文盲多",表明有的中国美术专家不亲近中国的普通艺术欣赏者,中国的美术专家需要确定一种与普通艺术欣赏者的合理关系。     

略述中美对峙时期美国中国学家的活动及其影响

在中关隔绝对峙时期,美国中国学家或专注中国研究,以认识和理解共产主义中国;或就中关关系问题为政府出谋划策,以使政府制定符合现实的对华政策;或致力于公众的中国知识教育,加深公众对中国的了解,消除他们对中国不必要的恐惧和敌视。     

学术运动对于常规科学的负面影响——兼谈民俗学家在非遗保护运动中的学术担当

民俗学者是非物质文化遗产保护运动中的主要学术力量,目前的"非物质文化遗产学家"多数由民俗学者变身而来。民俗学者们普遍认为,参与非遗保护运动是民俗学不可推卸的社会职责和学术职责,同时也是一次新的历史机遇。可是,作为一门常规科学,民俗学的处境却显得非常尴尬:学术与时政的结盟必然导致学术独立性的丧失;常规研究的停滞也将进一步削弱民俗学在整个学术格局中的学科地位;对基础研究以及既有范式的放弃必将导致民俗研究后继乏力;而一旦非遗保护运动落幕,久违了常规研究的民俗学家们必将进退两难。     

Manipulability of Future‐Independent Tests

The difficulties in properly anticipating key economic variables may encourage decision makers to rely on experts' forecasts. Professional forecasters, however, may not be reliable and so their forecasts must be empirically tested. This may induce experts to forecast strategically in order to pass the test. A test can be ignorantly passed if a false expert, with no knowledge of the data‐generating process, can pass the test. Many tests that are unlikely to reject correct forecasts can be ignorantly passed. Tests that cannot be ignorantly passed do exist, but these tests must make use of predictions contingent on data not yet observed at the time the forecasts are rejected. Such tests cannot be run if forecasters report only the probability of the next period's events on the basis of the actually observed data. This result shows that it is difficult to dismiss false, but strategic, experts who know how theories are tested. This result also shows an important role that can be played by predictions contingent on data not yet observed.