Nonparametric Shrinkage Estimation for Aalen's Additive Hazards Model

Aalen's nonparametric additive model in which the regression coefficients are assumed to be unspecified functions of time is a flexible alternative to Cox's proportional hazards model when the proportionality assumption is in doubt. In this paper, we incorporate a general linear hypothesis into the estimation of the time‐varying regression coefficients. We combine unrestricted least squares estimators and estimators that are restricted by the linear hypothesis and produce James‐Stein‐type shrinkage estimators of the regression coefficients. We develop the asymptotic joint distribution of such restricted and unrestricted estimators and use this to study the relative performance of the proposed estimators via their integrated asymptotic distributional risks. We conduct Monte Carlo simulations to examine the relative performance of the estimators in terms of their integrated mean square errors. We also compare the performance of the proposed estimators with a recently devised LASSO estimator as well as with ridge‐type estimators both via simulations and data on the survival of primary billiary cirhosis patients.     

苗延秀、包玉堂的生命意识对革命文学的贡献

由于政治环境、文艺政策等多方面的影响,新中国成立后的革命文学创作大多趋于模式化、程式化。时代环境无法改变,革命文学作家们也就无法完全摆脱主流意识的影响,但是广西当代少数民族革命文学作家苗延秀、包玉堂将自身的生命意识融入革命文学创作之中,在一定程度上使其作品呈现出有别于主流话语的独特抒写空间。他们在原生态的浪漫抒写、女性个体表现、民族民间化等方面对革命文学做出了特殊贡献。     

Who is a Distracted Driver? Associations between Mobile Phone Use while Driving,Domain‐Specific Risk Taking,and Personality

Mobile phone use while driving (MPUWD) is an increasingly common form of distracted driving. Given its widespread prevalence, it is important for researchers to identify factors that may predict who is more likely to engage in this risky behavior. The current study investigates associations between MPUWD risk behaviors, domain‐specific risk perceptions, and broad personality dimensions. An Italian community sample (n = 804) completed a survey regarding MPUWD risk perceptions and engagement in MPUWD, in addition to the HEXACO‐PI‐R, a broad six‐factor personality inventory (honesty‐humility, emotionality, extraversion, agreeableness, conscientiousness, openness to experience), and the DOSPERT, a six‐factor domain‐specific self‐report risk‐taking measure (health/safety, recreational, social, ethical, gambling, and investment). With respect to domain‐specific risk taking, greater frequency of SMS use while driving most strongly was associated with greater risk taking for the health/safety, gambling, and ethical risk domains. Further, greater honesty‐humility and conscientiousness, two traits related to cognitive control and risk behaviors, and to a lesser extent openness to experience, were associated with less frequent MPUWD, and positively associated with MPUWD risk perceptions. With growing public safety concern surrounding MPUWD, understanding associated personality factors is not only important for identifying psychological mechanisms underlying risk behavior, but also for more effective prevention and intervention programs.     

And I Still Love Them: On Touching Loss

In this article, the author performs a re‐membering practice that incorporates a relational materialist theory. It traces the disturbances that follow in the wake of three deaths in her family. Written in an autoethnographic voice, the article is a polyphonic composition of the narrative therapy approach of re‐membering entangled with the spacetimematter of silence, speaking, sitting, staying, presence, absence, loss of momentum, dreams, trees, books, cardiac pace‐makers, writing, breath, ashes, murmuring, suffering. Thus, the dispersed agencies of bodies, human and non‐human, reinvigorate a linguistic practice and the author's personal and professional life.     

Need,well‐being and outcomes: the development of policy‐thinking for children's services 1989–2004

This paper describes how government policy thinking about the well‐being of children and young people developed between the Children Act 1989 and the Children Act 2004. These two Acts are milestone statements about how services to children in England and Wales should be delivered. It is an account informed by the author's own experience as a government adviser on children's social care over much of this period and supporting documentation. It traces the strands of government policy thinking about how to deliver services for children from children in need to the articulation of the five Every Child Matters outcomes. It argues that attempts to achieve coordinated service planning for children and young people played a significant role in the formulation of shared objectives and the articulation of child outcomes. However, it argues that looking at real outcomes exposes how children in the UK do relatively badly compared with other rich nations. It questions whether we can realistically expect our services to deliver significantly improved outcomes given the impact of enduring inequality in our society. This paper is dedicated to the memory of David Lambert CBE, former Assistant Chief Inspector of the Social Services Inspectorate in London, who died suddenly on 7 October 2010. He lent me articles to assist me in writing this paper.     

New Data,Strategies, and Insights for Listeria monocytogenes Dose‐Response Models: Summary of an Interagency Workshop, 2011

Listeria monocytogenes is a leading cause of hospitalization, fetal loss, and death due to foodborne illnesses in the United States. A quantitative assessment of the relative risk of listeriosis associated with the consumption of 23 selected categories of ready‐to‐eat foods, published by the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services and the U.S. Department of Agriculture in 2003, has been instrumental in identifying the food products and practices that pose the greatest listeriosis risk and has guided the evaluation of potential intervention strategies. Dose‐response models, which quantify the relationship between an exposure dose and the probability of adverse health outcomes, were essential components of the risk assessment. However, because of data gaps and limitations in the available data and modeling approaches, considerable uncertainty existed. Since publication of the risk assessment, new data have become available for modeling L. monocytogenes dose‐response. At the same time, recent advances in the understanding of L. monocytogenes pathophysiology and strain diversity have warranted a critical reevaluation of the published dose‐response models. To discuss strategies for modeling L. monocytogenes dose‐response, the Interagency Risk Assessment Consortium (IRAC) and the Joint Institute for Food Safety and Applied Nutrition (JIFSAN) held a scientific workshop in 2011 (details available at http://foodrisk.org/irac/events/ ). The main findings of the workshop and the most current and relevant data identified during the workshop are summarized and presented in the context of L. monocytogenes dose‐response. This article also discusses new insights on dose‐response modeling for L. monocytogenes and research opportunities to meet future needs.     

论新时期电影中女性情欲的政治表述

在倡导生产伦理的主导政治的影响下，新时期电影中的女性情欲话语依然内含着某种变形后的政治动员机制，它们或以情欲展演完成政治神话的表述，或以情欲规划引导观众的利比多流向。然而，新时期电影所获得的半自律性生存空间，使得越轨的银幕女体情欲展演亦拥有其存活土壤，它们与主导政治文化之间既有共谋亦有背离。     

Does Fatherhood Matter for Men?

Ignored in the flurry of new research on fathers is that fatherhood may have consequences for men. This article explores possible effects on the lives and well‐being of men for a range of fatherhood experiences. Data are drawn from the National Survey of Families and Households. The first part of this article examines whether men's varied associations with children (no children, coresident, non‐coresident, and stepfatherhood) are associated with men's psychological health and behavior, social connections, intergenerational family relations, and work behavior. We found strong evidence that fathers differ from nonfathers in their social connections, family relationships, and work behavior. There is significant variation in effects among the father types as well. The second section of this article focuses attention only on men who are fathers and examines whether fathering behavior (e.g., the amount of time and nature of the activities that fathers are reported to be spending with their children) is associated with men's well‐being. The effects of father involvement on men was found to be most significant for those who were living with their own children.     

Access to Water in the Slums of Sub‐Saharan Africa

This article reviews the changing perspectives for improving access to water in the slums of developing countries, especially in sub‐Saharan Africa. While much of the literature continues to maintain an aversion to state‐led urban development policies, there is now increasing emphasis on the importance of informal, small‐scale providers and communitarian initiatives, following the many failures of privatisation. The article argues that market‐oriented solutions are inappropriate for sub‐Saharan African countries where over two‐thirds of the urban population live in squatter settlements with multidimensional challenges.