The product cycle model of foreign direct investment and developing country welfare

Raymond Vernon's product-cycle model predicts two distinctive kinds of foreign direct investment in developing countries: fist, subsidiaries whose operations are tightly integrated into the parent's strategy to advance its competitive position in international markets; second, subsidiaries toward the host market whose profits help fund the needs of the parent but whose output is not an integral part of the parent's global sourcing network. In practice, the latter are frequently subject to domestic content, joint venture, and technology-sharing requirements; the former almost never are. How do the two kinds of foreign direct investment differ in their impact on host country development? Somewhat surprisingly, to those who may be wary of what Vernon himself reffered to as “captive” plants, foreign investor operations intimately linked into the parent's global sourcing network make a systematically larger and more dynamic contribution to the host economy via the activities of the affiliates themselves, via backward linkages to local suppliers, and via spillovers and externalities. Foreign investor operations impeded from close integration via domestic content, joint venture, and technology-sharing requirement provide a much less positive and sometimes genuinely negative impact, especially if they are protected by trade barriers or other forms of market exclusivity.     

直接融资与经济增长的理论和实证分析——基于对不同融资业务的成本比较

通过对Deidda（2006）的金融内生增长模型进行改进和分析,得到如下结论：如果从融资成本的角度考虑,金融机构适度增加直接融资业务的比重,能减少全社会的融资成本,进而增加家庭的投资收益、企业及全社会生产资本的积累,最终使得稳态经济增长率得以提升。同时运用我国的相关数据证明了我国现阶段适度提高直接融资业务的比重确实能促进经济增长率的提高。     

Understanding the epidemiology of foreign body injuries in children using a data-driven Bayesian network

Bayesian networks (BNs) are probabilistic expert systems which have emerged over the last few decades as a powerful data mining technique. Also, BNs have become especially popular in biomedical applications where they have been used for diagnosing diseases and studying complex cellular networks, among many other applications. In this study, we built a BN in a fully automated way in order to analyse data regarding injuries due to the inhalation, ingestion and aspiration of foreign bodies (FBs) in children. Then, a sensitivity analysis was carried out to characterize the uncertainty associated with the model. While other studies focused on characteristics such as shape, consistency and dimensions of the FBs which caused injuries, we propose an integrated environment which makes the relationships among the factors underlying the problem clear. The advantage of this approach is that it gives a picture of the influence of critical factors on the injury severity and allows for the comparison of the effect of different FB characteristics (volume, FB type, shape and consistency) and children's features (age and gender) on the risk of experiencing a hospitalization. The rates it consents to calculate provide a more rational basis for promoting care-givers’ education of the most influential risk factors regarding the adverse outcomes.     

Controlled Direct and Mediated Effects: Definition,Identification and Bounds

Abstract. Results are given which provide bounds for controlled direct effects when nounmeasured confounding assumptions required for the identification of these effects do not hold. Previous results concerning bounds for controlled direct effects rely on monotonicity relationships between the treatment, mediator and the outcome themselves; the results presented in this article instead assume that monotonicity relationships hold between the unmeasured confounding variable or variables and the treatment, mediator and outcome. Whereas prior results give bounds that contain the null hypothesis of no direct effect, the results presented here will in many instances yield bounds that do not contain the null hypothesis of no direct effect. For contexts in which a set of variables intercepts all paths between a treatment and an outcome, it is possible to provide a definition for a controlled mediated effect. We discuss the identification of these controlled mediated effects; the bounds for controlled direct effects are applicable also to controlled mediated effects. An example is given to illustrate how the results in the article can be used to draw inferences about direct and mediated effects in the presence of unmeasured confounding variables.     

人力资本对经济增长的直接贡献与间接贡献研究——以上海市与北京市为例

从内生经济增长理论出发,基于卢卡斯人力资本模型的人力资本对经济增长的贡献,可以分解为直接贡献和间接贡献。为了说明该理论,从人力资本要素角度,以改革开放30年以来的上海与北京为对象进行实证研究,通过对各种要素在不同时期对经济增长的贡献进行分解,发现上海与北京经济快速增长有其内生性原因,其中人力资本的作用明显,尤其是人力资本的间接贡献作用大于直接贡献,而北京的间接贡献作用比上海更为显著。通过带约束的回归检验,验证了两个城市人力资本间接贡献都十分显著。     

应用不等权重支持向量机预测人民币汇率的变动

基于金融时间序列的近期数据对未来的影响会大于早期数据,对应用于金融时间序列预测的支持向量机方法进行改进,给出了不等权重支持向量机方法（USVM）及其多项式光滑化处理。将不等权重支持向量机方法应用于训练样本集的子集确定预测模型,实证分析表明USVM算法预测是有效的。     

在华外资法人银行经营发展动因研究——基于Orbis数据库的实证分析

利用从BVD公司的Orbis数据库获得的29家外资法人银行的资产资料,通过非平衡面板数据模型,对外资银行在我国经营发展的背后动因进行计量检验和分析。结果表明,中国的经济增长和外资银行母国对华非金融直接投资是促进在华外资法人银行资产规模扩大的主要因素,而母国和中国的双边贸易对外资银行资产规模的影响并不显著。     

国际金融危机背景下江苏经济发展问题分析

2007年下半年以来的国际金融危机对江苏省产业发展、外贸规模和结构产生了一定的影响。文章分析了国际金融危机对江苏三大产业和对外贸易的具体影响,从产业政策调整、培育新的经济增长点及金融业如何支持江苏经济等方面提出了相应的对策措施。     

步入信息化的多媒体语言实验室的应用

在多媒体技术飞速发展的今天,外语教学利用多媒体语言实验室逐渐步入信息化、现代化及规范化。特别是在多媒体语言实验室的教学应用中,信息化给现代教学带来诸多好处,优势明显。英语教学的发展推动了多媒体语言实验室的改进,多媒体语言室的改进又为英语教学的改革提供了优良教学环境。     

中国直销企业九问

随着我国对于环境污染、食品安全、就业形势等问题的日趋关切,人们对于健康重要性的认识也在不断加深,从而决定了以保健品为主体产品的直销企业存在与发展有其客观必然性。但并不是说,存在就一定是合理的,国家在严厉打击非法传销的同时,合法直销企业违规现象也不断曝光。在直销行业快速发展的今天,如何破其不利因素,立其有利因素,则成为政府、企业以及学术界普遍关注的要点之一。基于此种思考,笔者提出一些不成熟的话题,以求教于直销行业的各位同仁。