中日韩自由贸易区可行性条件及制约因素分析

在经济全球化和区域经济一体化趋势加强的情况下,遭受亚洲金融危机重创的东亚各国,都深有感触地体会到,要维护本国经济的安全与稳定,单凭一国的力量难以实现。为此,加强本地区经济合作,发展经贸关系正愈来愈成为东亚各国的共识,其要旨就是建立自由贸易区。中日韩建立自由贸易区,既有现实有利条件,又存在很多障碍,对这种现状进行深入分析和研究,有助于我们深刻认识东亚经济一体化的现状和未来走向。     

关于马克思社会有机体构成内容的文本分析

马克思的社会有机体理论是由前提性有机构成部分、基础性有机构成部分、上层性有机构成部分、观念性有机构成部分所构成的多维度有机整体。全面理解马克思关于社会有机体理论,有助于我们更加全面地认识人类社会发展的基本规律,也有助于我们深化对全面建设小康社会与积极构建和谐社会的认识。     

改进的人工神经网络方法在农业现代化综合评价中的应用

该文将因子分析的方法引入人工神经网络,运用于农业现代化多指标综合评价,克服了人工神经网络在多指标情况下预测精度降低的不足,为农业现代化综合评价的研究方法提出了新的思路。     

Addiction science and the perception of freewill

Do people think individuals with Substance Use Disorder (SUD) have freewill? How does addiction science inform views on the issue? We distinguish between two senses of freewill: 1) libertarian freewill , in which freedom turns on a particular metaphysical conception of action (sometimes operationalized as “could have done otherwise”), and 2) compatibilist freewill , in which freedom depends on the relation between the actor's psychology and her actions (e.g., “was the act what she wanted to do?”). We argue that, in different ways, scientific accounts can impact conceived freewill by linking addictive behavior to mechanisms that observers view as peripheral to the actor ( motivation modularity) . While a variety of impacts on conceived compatibilist freewill are plausible, we argue that contemporary addiction science has no direct bearing on conceived libertarian freewill. Addiction science may, however, indirectly impact conceived libertarian freewill by priming an explanatory framework in which intention is superfluous (especially materialism).     

The effect of paid maternity leave on low-income families' welfare use in the US

Despite the critical role that paid maternity leave can assume in the economic lives of low-income families, research to date has paid insufficient attention to whether paid maternity leave reduces welfare use for low-income families. Using the Current Population Survey (CPS) March Supplement 2007–2014 with the difference-in-difference (DiD) technique, this study finds a significant policy effect of paid maternity leave on reducing the probability of using Temporary Assistance for Needy Families (TANF), TANF benefit amounts and TANF participation length. This study confirms that paid maternity leave is likely to prevent low-income families from using welfare during job interruptions stemming from the birth of a child. Given that TANF is often associated with negative political and social connotations, paid maternity leave can be used as an important social policy to improve economic security as well as offer empowerment in overall social standing for low-income mothers. The discussion focuses on the implications of the findings in a broader context of American welfare states.     

抑制演化:库拉圈的社会权力

本文从迈克尔·曼“抑制演化”这一人类学命题入手,借用《老子》的某些思想与概念来解读人类学经典案例库拉。作者认为,曼由于材料不足而未能直接使用权力的四个来源解释新石器时代的“抑制演化”问题,而库拉民族志为探讨这一人类学命题提供了机会。《老子》的思想有助于我们较好地解释为何库拉宝物和名望都是“不积”的,为何库拉社会可以保持在“小邦寡民”的非文明状态。“不积”与“小邦寡民”使整个社会限制了四种社会权力的积累,有意保持在“抑制演化”的状态。以《老子》解读库拉,有可能为“抑制演化”这样的人类学经典理论提供一个独特的视角。     

The 2015 welfare reform of the National Basic Livelihood Security System in South Korea: Effects on economic outcomes

In July 2015, South Korea’s National Basic Livelihood Security System (NBLSS) was reformed for the purposes of eliminating welfare blind spots and reducing poverty. The reform is expected to affect the recipients’ economic behaviours and choices. In this study, we used changes in benefits and eligibility for the NBLSS under the customised benefit system to identify the effects of the change in the NBLSS on a proposed set of economic outcomes – income, labour supply, consumption, savings, poverty reduction. To estimate the effects, we used data from the 10th–12th waves of the Korea Welfare Panel Study and employed a difference‐in‐differences framework integrated with the propensity scores. We found that the NBLSS helps the poor to reduce financial and material hardships through income and consumption increments, but that it does not provide disincentives to the recipients from participating in the labour market or from saving.     

多边贸易体制下中国发展中国家地位问题研究——基于历史、现实与规范的多维考察

当前,发展中国家地位问题受到国际社会的高度关注,已成为世界贸易组织改革中的主要讨论议题。然而,现行世界贸易组织多边规则体系中并没有关于“发展中国家地位”的清晰界定,“自我认定”的方式正遭受一些国家的挑战。发展中国家地位和特殊与差别待遇条款密切相关,世界贸易组织规则体系中涵盖的155项特殊与差别待遇条款为发展中国家的国内政策提供了一定的灵活性,尽管多数为“最佳努力条款”。中国的发展中国家地位兼具身份和契约的双重属性,部分发达国家迫使中国放弃发展中国家地位,本质上旨在继续维持其在国际经济秩序中的主导地位。虽然中国的发展正处于“强起来”的第三阶段,但仍须坚持发展中国家地位不动摇。放弃发展中国家地位并不等于将获得发达国家的自动接纳,相反,还会影响到在其他国际组织和国际事务中的角色扮演,中国的发展离不开广大发展中国家的支持。当然,坚持发展中国家地位并不等于需要和其他发展中成员享受完全一致的差别待遇,在后续谈判中,中国可以保持一定的灵活性。在国际治理中,中国也将继续为国际社会的发展提供解决方案,树立负责任大国形象。     

Modified maximum likelihood estimator under the Jones and Faddy's skew t-error distribution for censored regression model

It is well-known that classical Tobit estimator of the parameters of the censored regression (CR) model is inefficient in case of non-normal error terms. In this paper, we propose to use the modified maximum likelihood (MML) estimator under the Jones and Faddy''s skew t-error distribution, which covers a wide range of skew and symmetric distributions, for the CR model. The MML estimators, providing an alternative to the Tobit estimator, are explicitly expressed and they are asymptotically equivalent to the maximum likelihood estimator. A simulation study is conducted to compare the efficiencies of the MML estimators with the classical estimators such as the ordinary least squares, Tobit, censored least absolute deviations and symmetrically trimmed least squares estimators. The results of the simulation study show that the MML estimators work well among the others with respect to the root mean square error criterion for the CR model. A real life example is also provided to show the suitability of the MML methodology.