地理环境、农耕文明与中原文化的基本趋向

地理环境决定了中原地区以农耕为主导的生产、生活方式,而这种生产、生活方式又决定了中原人的体质和性格,并进一步决定中原人的思维方式、行为方式乃至文化趋向,诸如保守、务实、和平、中庸、尚古、尚左、安土重生、重人事轻自然,等等。从地理环境到文化特征的形成,是一个正相生成关系。     

关于实施河北省商标战略的思考

注册商标的数量和质量是衡量一个地区综合竞争力的重要指标。河北省无论注册商标数量还是质量都取得了很大进展,但与发达地区相比还存在诸多问题,增强河北省整体商标意识,加紧对农产品和特色工艺品地理标志证明商标和旅游业商标保护,完善商标服务体系,增强商标管理和利用能力,努力培育名牌商标,是实施河北省商标战略的必然选择。     

Empirical Limits for Time Series Econometric Models

This paper characterizes empirically achievable limits for time series econometric modeling and forecasting. The approach involves the concept of minimal information loss in time series regression and the paper shows how to derive bounds that delimit the proximity of empirical measures to the true probability measure (the DGP) in models that are of econometric interest. The approach utilizes joint probability measures over the combined space of parameters and observables and the results apply for models with stationary, integrated, and cointegrated data. A theorem due to Rissanen is extended so that it applies directly to probabilities about the relative likelihood (rather than averages), a new way of proving results of the Rissanen type is demonstrated, and the Rissanen theory is extended to nonstationary time series with unit roots, near unit roots, and cointegration of unknown order. The corresponding bound for the minimal information loss in empirical work is shown not to be a constant, in general, but to be proportional to the logarithm of the determinant of the (possibility stochastic) Fisher–information matrix. In fact, the bound that determines proximity to the DGP is generally path dependent, and it depends specifically on the type as well as the number of regressors. For practical purposes, the proximity bound has the asymptotic form (K/2)log n, where K is a new dimensionality factor that depends on the nature of the data as well as the number of parameters in the model. When ‘good’ model selection principles are employed in modeling time series data, we are able to show that our proximity bound quantifies empirical limits even in situations where the models may be incorrectly specified. One of the main implications of the new result is that time trends are more costly than stochastic trends, which are more costly in turn than stationary regressors in achieving proximity to the true density. Thus, in a very real sense and quantifiable manner, the DGP is more elusive when there is nonstationarity in the data. The implications for prediction are explored and a second proximity theorem is given, which provides a bound that measures how close feasible predictors can come to the optimal predictor. Again, the bound has the asymptotic form (K/2)log n, showing that forecasting trends is fundamentally more difficult than forecasting stationary time series, even when the correct form of the model for the trends is known.     

生存悖论与伦理选择——多丽丝·莱辛《幸存者回忆录》中的多重共同体

多丽丝·莱辛的《幸存者回忆录》构建了多重共同体:血缘共同体、地缘共同体、精神共同体。这些共同体通过不同的空间进行表征:艾米莉的原生家庭、墙背后变化无常的房间、现代城市解体中的“杰拉尔德之家”。运用共同体理论与文学理论阐释三重共同体，是解析多丽丝·莱辛对共同体危机与现代文明灾难间的深刻反思。小说结尾暗示理想的共同体是个体实现自我超越后的人与自然、生物的道德共同体，这也体现了莱辛关于人类自我意识的觉醒以及对共同体生存形态的伦理选择。     

心理所有权和乡愁视角下产地对地理标志产品溢价支付意愿的影响路径研究

培育地理标志品牌是促进乡村振兴的重要路径，明确消费者对不同产地地理标志品牌的溢价支付意愿是发挥地理标志品牌竞争优势的重要前提。基于湖北宜昌、湖南郴州和江西赣州689份消费者调查数据，对地理标志标签是否影响消费者溢价支付意愿进行分析，从心理所有权和乡愁视角构建并检验产品产地对消费者地理标志产品溢价支付意愿影响机理的模型。研究发现，地理标志标签对消费者溢价支付意愿有显著的影响；产品产地对消费者地理标志产品溢价支付意愿有显著影响，相比非家乡地理标志产品，消费者对来自家乡的地理标志产品有更高的溢价支付意愿；心理所有权和感知质量连续中介了产品产地对消费者地理标志产品溢价支付意愿的影响；乡愁情绪正向调节产品产地与消费者地理标志产品溢价支付意愿之间的关系。据此，建议农产品企业要重视地理标志产品产地的心理所有权效应，在推广地理标志产品时应加强对消费者的分类管理，充分考虑消费者的乡愁情绪对其地理标志产品购买行为的影响。     

In sight,in mind: Spatial proximity to protest sites and changes in peoples' political attitudes

Occupying public spaces can be an effective tactic for conveying a semantic message of protest and gaining wider support; however, it may also severely disrupt the everyday lives of non-participants and causes a backfire. Therefore, it remains unclear whether and how the occupy movements have shifted political attitudes among the general public. Bringing a social-spatial perspective to the case of the Occupy Central Movement (OCM) in Hong Kong, this study investigates how the attitudinal impact of occupation has varied according to people's spatial proximity to the protest sites. Using two waves of individual-level panel data collected right before and after the OCM and detailed geo-information on the respondents' home addresses and the occupied areas, we apply a difference-in-differences (DIDs) design to identify the causal link between space and attitudes. In addition, propensity score matching (PSM) methods are used to ensure the comparability of nearby and faraway residents. The results show that after the OCM, residents living near the occupied areas not only maintained their support for the pro-democracy camp but also became more liberal as compared to faraway residents. This phenomenon can be explained by the “on-site” effect, which suggests that the direct exposure to protestors' solidarity and the repressive actions of authorities arouse bystanders' sympathy for the protestors and support for their political cause. Such influence appears to be long-lasting and can be evidenced by the local election results after the protest.     

高技术产业关联密度对城市就业的影响——基于产业空间认知邻近度的实证分析

在经济高质量发展中需要高技术产业发展引领，而高技术产业发展与新技术的广泛使用对就业岗位是否会产生冲击而造成大规模失业，引起了人们的担忧。为此，将高技术产业发展与演化经济地理学主题相结合，采用“产业空间”方法测度了高技术产业和其他产业关联性，基于中国工业企业数据库的面板数据对中国高技术产业及其与其他产业关联密度在城市工业就业上的影响进行了检验。研究表明：(1)高技术产业具有就业创造效应，城市经济对劳动力的需求会因高技术产业诱发关联产业发展而显著增加。(2)高技术产业发展为市场提供了技术应用与服务，使资源密集型产业的劳动力需求减少，释放出一定规模的劳动力。(3)高技术产业与其他产业的关联密度主要是通过生产效率提高促使产业规模扩大、提高居民收入促使消费需求提升等机制促进城市产业就业需求增加。高技术产业带动关联产业的发展对城市就业的促进效应具有较强的稳健性。     

On not ‘being there’: Making sense of the potent urge for physical proximity in transnational families at the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic

This paper investigates transnational families’ experiences of the COVID-19 pandemic outbreak and the accompanying sudden and unexpected travel restrictions. Our data consist of written stories collected in April–June 2020 from migrants with ageing kin living in another country. For many respondents, the situation provoked an acutely felt urge for physical proximity with their families. By analysing their experiences of ‘not being there’, we seek to understand what exactly made the urge to ‘be there’ so forceful. Bringing into dialogue literature on transnational families with Jennifer Mason's recent theoretical work on affinities, we move the focus from families’ transnational caregiving practices to the potent connections between family members. We argue that this approach can open important avenues for future research on families—transnational or otherwise—because it sheds light on the multisensory and often ineffable charges between family members that serve to connect them.     

审计师-客户公司的地理邻近性与会计稳健性

 近年来，相关研究发现地理区位特征是影响经济主体行为决策及其后果的重要因素。在审计实践中，有些上市公司倾向于聘请地理邻近的本地会计师事务所提供审计服务，而有些上市公司却喜欢“舍近求远”聘请外地会计师事务所提供审计服务。这个现象说明，审计师的地理区位特征很可能是影响上市公司与审计师间交互行为的一个重要潜在因素。        基于客户公司会计稳健性的视角，以地理经济学相关理论为支撑，探讨审计师的地理区位特征对审计师审计行为的影响，进而检验对客户公司会计稳健性的影响。        综合考虑中国关系型社会和法制不健全的转型经济背景，研究审计师与客户公司间地理距离对客户公司会计稳健性的影响。利用2004年至2014年中国A股上市公司的13 624个年度观察数据为研究样本，使用OLS、工具变量的2SLS、Petersen所采用的稳健回归等多元回归分析方法进行实证检验。        研究结果表明，①审计师-客户公司地理距离越近，客户公司的会计稳健性越低，即地理邻近性降低了客户公司的会计稳健性；②与国际四大相比，非国际四大审计师与客户公司间的地理邻近性对客户公司会计稳健性的消极影响显著更强；③相对于监管强度高的地区，审计师-客户公司的地理邻近性对会计稳健性的消极影响在监管强度低的地区表现得更强。此外，对内生性、计量估计模型、主要变量度量方法和样本筛选等问题进行的稳健性检验结果表明，上述研究结论稳健成立。        审计师的地理邻近性会降低客户公司的会计稳健性，因为地理邻近性会特别损害会计稳健性所依赖的外部审计的独立性，而良好的审计师声誉和外部监管环境则有利于在一定程度上缓解审计师的地理邻近性对客户公司会计稳健性的不利影响。相关结果加深了对审计师行为动机及其后果的理解，对审计师在审计本地客户时加强独立性、监管机构加强针对性的监管以及完善各种内外部治理机制都具有重要的政策启示意义。