A Risk-Based Method for Modeling Traffic Fatalities

We describe a risk-based analytical framework for estimating traffic fatalities that combines the probability of a crash and the probability of fatality in the event of a crash. As an illustrative application, we use the methodology to explore the role of vehicle mix and vehicle prevalence on long-run fatality trends for a range of transportation growth scenarios that may be relevant to developing societies. We assume crash rates between different road users are proportional to their roadway use and estimate case fatality ratios (CFRs) for the different vehicle-vehicle and vehicle-pedestrian combinations. We find that in the absence of road safety interventions, the historical trend of initially rising and then falling fatalities observed in industrialized nations occurred only if motorization was through car ownership. In all other cases studied (scenarios dominated by scooter use, bus use, and mixed use), traffic fatalities rose monotonically. Fatalities per vehicle had a falling trend similar to that observed in historical data from industrialized nations. Regional adaptations of the model validated with local data can be used to evaluate the impacts of transportation planning and safety interventions, such as helmets, seat belts, and enforcement of traffic laws, on traffic fatalities.     

当前财务公司存在的问题及对策

阐述了我国财务公司的性质和特点；指出并分析了当前我国财务公司存在的业务定位不准，融资渠道狭窄，缺乏人才资源和行政干预过多等主要问题；提出了明确财务公司的定位，拓展金融服务功能，拓宽融资渠道，开发人才资源，制定长远发展战略，提高竞争力和抗风险能力等解决问题的对策。     

Deconvolution with supersmooth distributions

Nonparametric deconvolution problems require one to recover an unknown density when the data are contaminated with errors. Optimal global rates of convergence are found under the weighted L_p-loss (1 ≤ p ≤ ∞). It appears that the optimal rates of convergence are extremely low for supersmooth error distributions. To resolve this difficulty, we examine how high the noise level can be for deconvolution to be feasible, and for the deconvolution estimate to be as good as the ordinary density estimate. It is shown that if the noise level is not too high, nonparametric Gaussian deconvolution can still be practical. Several simulation studies are also presented.     

论西部开发中区域货币金融政策的选择

西部经济发展落后的重要原因之一在于资金的短缺.要发展西部经济,缩小东西部差距,有必要制定区域(差别)货币金融政策,包括差别再贷款权政策、差别存款准备金率和贴现率政策、差别利率政策以及在西部开发中试行资本项目可兑换政策和积极培育西部资本市场,发展区域金融中心等.     

学术期刊属性研究

在编辑传播学界关于学术期刊属性的研究上,普遍存在着一个突出的问题,这就是论者们几乎不假思索地认为“学术期刊是商品”。我们认为,这是一个很大的误区,这种认识在理论上是错误的,在实践上是有害的。首先,“学术期刊商品论”是自相矛盾的;其次,“学术期刊商品论”与马克思主义经济学是相悖的;再次,“学术期刊商品论”与普遍存在的事实是恰恰相反的。学术期刊和学术事业是一项创新的事业,它关系一个国家的生存安危,对此,江泽民同志曾经反复强调,创新是一个民族进步的灵魂,是国家兴旺发达的不竭动力之源。因此,对待学术和学术期刊事业应当像对待军队、警察机构一样,不能也不可能使其商品化,学术期刊应该走自己的健康发展之路。     

我国金融风险的制度因素分析

对金融风险进行有效的防范和控制,必须抓住风险产生的根本原因.目前我国存在的金融风险实质上是制度性风险,而产权制度是形成制度性风险的根源.在深化产权改革,建立起我国市场化金融制度的同时,也要积极借鉴国际先进经验,推行有利于金融风险防范的新的金融制度,并注意金融制度的适用性问题,以免引起新的金融风险.     

Household debt and financial assets: evidence from Germany, Great Britain and the USA

Summary.  We explore the determinants of debt, financial assets and net worth at the household level by using survey data for Germany, Great Britain and the USA. To identify which households are potentially vulnerable to adverse changes in the economic environment, we also explore the determinants of a range of measures of financial pressure: the probability that a household has negative net worth; the debt-to-income ratio; mortgage income gearing; the saving-to-income ratio. Our empirical findings suggest that the poorest and the youngest households are the most vulnerable to adverse changes in their financial circumstances.     

商业银行发展中间业务的思考

中间业务以其风险小、收益高的优点受到各国银行的青睐,尤其是在发达国家,已成为发达国家建设银行收入和利润的主要来源。建设银行大力推进和发展中间业务商业银行加快体制改革步伐、增强国际竞争力尤为重要。现针对商业银行发展中间业务的必要性及发展现状和发展前景等方面进行初步探讨。对于国内外先进银行经验加快发展商业银行中间业务的步伐,加快建设银行战略转型、改变业务发展方式,向现代化经营模式的转变。     

日本的道德教育及高校德育改革

日本强国的成功,与其强大的教育、尤其是优秀文化传统和良好道德教育的强有力支撑分不开。如清明、正直善良同情吃苦勤劳节俭之心的传统美德;德育过程中的并重个性、协作、传统、劳动、人生观教育,强调学生主体、群体意识、异域优秀文化、道德实践,国家利益至上的完美结合。但日本朝野各界现都确认正视,全球化大深入背景下的日本高校德育危机已经出现不少大学生脱离政治;无远大理想;贪图生活安逸;个人主义倾向严重等。全方位的日本高校德育改革正在进行;德育成为学校教育的首位;最重要的德育目标仍然坚持民族精神与爱国思想;内容从共同价值观扩展至宗教、伦理、纪律、法制、民主、人道消费、环保等人类生活诸方面;正规课程与非正规课程结合;形式社会化、网络化与开放性整合。     

促进西部少数民族经济发展的财税思考

如何促进西部少数民族经济发展是当前我国政府面临的重要课题。本文首先介绍了发达国家运用财税政策发展经济落后地区的成功经验 ,在此基础上 ,从我国国情出发 ,就运用财税政策促进西部少数民族经济发展问题提出了若干建议。