外贸对经济增长贡献的定量分析

利用支出法核算恒等式测算外贸对经济增长的贡献存在着固有缺陷,即进口总是起着抵消经济增长的作用。我们利用投入产出模型,从需求出发计算出口对经济增长的贡献,从供给出发计算进口对经济增长的贡献,给出了相应的计算公式和计算结果;并在部门产品的层面上讨论出口和进口,进而为改进外贸产品结构、提高外贸对经济增长的贡献提出相应的政策建议。     

Lp solutions of anticipated BSDEs with weak monotonicity and general growth generators

In this article, we establish the stability theorems of L^p(1 < p ? 2) solutions for multidimensional anticipated backward stochastic differential equations (BSDEs), in which the generator g is p-order weak monotonic in y and Lipschitz continuous in (z, η, ?). Moreover, we present the existence and uniqueness of L^p solutions for this kind of anticipated BSDEs with the help of stability theorems when generator g also satisfies general growth condition in y.     

Social assistance trajectories among young adults in Finland: What are the determinants of welfare dependency?

Social assistance receipt is typical among young adults, but the long‐term trajectories of social assistance receipt have been less studied. We use Finnish population register data to study the kinds of social assistance trajectories found among young adults. We also analyze how individual and family characteristics are associated with the likelihood of following different social assistance trajectories. Individuals are followed from the age of 19 to 25. According to the results, social assistance receipt is relatively common among young adults but spell duration is usually short. Around 35% receive social assistance at least once between the ages of 19 and 25, and 2.5% receive social assistance each year. Using latent class growth analysis, we estimated six trajectories based on the annual number of social assistance months: (1) no receipt; (2) transitory; (3) slow exit; (4) occasional; (5) increase; and (6) dependency. Almost 4% of young adults follow the “dependency” trajectory. The results from multinomial logistic regression indicate that having only a short education is a particularly strong predictor of social assistance dependency. Parental social assistance receipt and moving out of the parental home at a young age are also significant predictors of social assistance receipt.     

基于增长极理论的山西省文化创意产业发展研究

山西是中华文明的重要发祥地,文化创意产业优势明显。但山西文化创意产业还停留在简单生产阶段,要成为山西经济发展的引擎还有一定差距。根据增长极理论和山西省实际,构建山西省文化创意产业增长极需要：加强政策规划和指引,构建适宜创意产业发展的生态环境;发挥集聚效应,建设区域性文化产业群;重视创新,推动山西文化创意产业大发展。     

学习型组织理论在河北省高校人才成长环境建设中的应用

高校人才的成长过程是一个复杂的系统工程,是一个多因素协同作用的结果。基于学习型组织理论,遵循系统理论思想,对河北省高校人才成长环境进行了实证研究,提出构建基于学习型组织理论的高校人才成长环境体系。     

中国人口转变、人口红利与经济增长的实证

我国人口年龄结构的变动使得劳动负担逐渐下降,这对于储蓄水平的上升和劳动力投入效率的提高具有显著的促进作用;我国劳动负担比与经济增长呈现出明显的负相关,劳动负担比每下降1个百分点,经济增长将提高1.06个百分点,在过去的30年里劳动负担降低累计带来的经济增长占总增长的27.23%。通过计量检验证明人口年龄结构变动所产生的促进经济增长的人口红利是存在的。由此我们推断,由于未来的人口年龄结构变动趋向人口老龄化,劳动负担逐步上升,这将会对未来的经济增长造成制约。利用未来10～20年时间较轻的劳动负担的机遇期,我们应当建立良好的教育、人力资本投资、社会保障等方面的制度以及制定积极的人口政策,调整当前生育政策、适时执行宏观经济政策(劳动就业政策)来应对已发生的、正在进行的人口变动,使我国的经济继续保持强有力的增长态势。     

中国人口老龄化对经济发展的影响分析

目前我国正处于人口老龄化的初期阶段,人口老龄化给我国的劳动力、消费、储蓄和其他社会问题带来很多负面影响。随着老龄化峰值的到来,其对社会经济的负面影响将进一步显露,我国应该在人口老龄化的初期阶段抓住劳动力资源丰富、社会负担较轻的黄金时期,在人口老龄化峰值来临之前,扬长避短,促进经济的长期增长。     

Countertransference and positive growth in social workers

A number of factors contribute to social workers' states of mind including exposure to intense emotionality and disturbance, job satisfaction, burnout, secondary stress, and the perceived value attached to social work. Together these can lead to placing social workers at risk of vicarious traumatisation. While vicarious traumatisation can lead to posttraumatic stress, it may be important to explore whether posttraumatic growth is a possibility. The aim was to provide evidence for growth in social workers and to test for its association with factors that are known to contribute to the state of mind of the social worker, and thus affect countertransference reactions. Sixty-two social workers completed self-report measures showing those who felt more valued in their professional role scored lower on burnout, higher on job satisfaction, and positive growth. The role of these variables as factors influencing countertransference reactions is discussed.     

中国区域经济增长新格局与区域协调发展

当前,中国区域经济增长呈现新格局,主要表现为中西部地区发展速度加快,优势产业各具特色;以城市群为核心,形成空间发展格局;区域开发秩序得到进一步规范;区域合作和一体化不断得到加强。与此同时,中国区域经济增长也遇到新的挑战。因此,必须联动实施国家区域发展战略,开拓区域经济协调发展的新思路。     

东西部经济增长决定因素和扩散与回流的比较研究

 本文基于增长极理论构建了空间计量模型对实施西部大开发以来第一个五年的西部和东部经济增长效益和溢出作用进行比较研究。统计模型估计显示,固定资产的增长是非农业经济增长的主要决定因素,但是西部资产边际产出只及东部的三分之二;FDI的效益远高于国内资本,且西进的FDI比在东部有更高的边际效益;西部与东部最大的差别源于劳动力边际效益的巨大差距;西部和东部经济都有显著的集聚倾向。对增长外溢作用的检验表明西部中心城市对县级经济有回流作用,西部中心城市和县级经济都受到东部中心城市的扩散作用,而东部中心城市增长虽比西部快,但是增速却因西部中心城市的增长而相对减缓。