我国城乡收入差距对实际经济增长的阈值效应(英文)

鉴于我国的城乡二元结构,本文使用泰尔指数度量和刻画我国的城乡收入差距及其变化特征。同时,本文设定了非线性阈值协整模型,以揭示我国改革开放以来城乡收入差距与实际经济增长的长期非线性关系。结果表明,长期非线性闽值关系在泰尔指数为0．100（阈值）处发生机制转移：1978—1991年,我国城乡收入差距对实际增长的长期效应为正;1992—1999年,收入差距对实际增长的效应由正向负平滑转换;1999年后,我国城乡收入差距对实际经济增长产生阻滞作用,且负效应呈逐年增加趋势。     

Financial development and economic growth: The Egyptian experience

This paper examines the causal relationship between financial development and economic growth in Egypt during the period 1960–2001 within a trivariate vector autoregressive (VAR) framework (investment being the additional variable). We employ four different measures of financial development and apply Granger causality tests using the cointegration and vector error-correction (VEC) methodology. Our results strongly support the view that financial development and economic growth are mutually causal, that is, causality is bi-directional. Furthermore, we find that financial development causes economic growth through both increasing resources for investment and enhancing efficiency. These findings suggest the need to accelerate the financial reforms that the Egyptian government launched in 1991 and to improve the efficiency of the financial system to stimulate saving/investment and, consequently, long-term economic growth.     

债务容量与成长期权关系研究

本文利用期权博弈方法,探析投资成长期权如何影响公司债务融资决策问题。在不确定条件下,综合考虑利率、税率、债息和债务的期限结构这些影响融资和投资的重要因素,构建期权博弈理论模型,确定企业的最优债务容量,并运用数值方法给出了债务容量与投资成长期权的回报率之间是非线性的"U"形关系的结论。研究表明,当投资成长期权的回报率较低时,债务容量随着投资成长期权的回报率增加而债务容量减少;当投资成长期权的回报率达到较高水平时,债务容量随着投资成长期权的回报率增加而债务容量增加。从而给出了关于债务容量与投资成长期权之间的内在关系的新理论解释。     

金融发展与基于水平创新的内生增长模型

基于中间投入品种类扩张的水平创新型内生增长模型,本文论证了金融发展影响一国长期经济增长的作用机制。对平衡增长路径的稳态增长率求解结果表明,稳态消费、产出增长率同时取决于研发、人力资本以及金融部门的产出效率;进一步比较静态分析表明较高的金融发展水平将提高稳态消费增长率,然而各产出效率参数对金融部门自身的稳态增长率影响是不确定的。     

中国居民的收入差距对经济增长的影响

改革开放以来,中国的经济虽然多年保持着较高的增长率,但居民的收入差距也日益扩大。通过实证分析表明,由于中国居民的收入差距已经突破了国际警戒线,且城乡收入差距、地区间收入差距也突破世界上最高值。这不公影响有效需求,而且影响了生产要素的投入效应,更影响了经济效率的提高。这对我国长期稳定的经济增长是极为不利的。因此,中国要实现经济的快速发展,必须兼顾公平,缩小收入差距,才能实现持续稳定的经济增长态势。      

Short- and long-run rolling causality techniques and optimal window-wise lag selection: an application to the export-led growth hypothesis

The literature devoted to the export-led growth (ELG) hypothesis, which is of utmost importance for policymaking in emerging countries, provides mixed evidence for the validity of the hypothesis. Recent contributions focus on the time-dependence of the relationship between export and output growth using rolling causality techniques based on vector autoregressive models. These models focus on a short-term view which captures single policy-induced developments. However, long-term structural changes cannot be covered by examinations related to the short-term. This paper hence examines the time-varying validity of the ELG hypothesis for India for the period 1960–2011 using rolling causality techniques for both the short-run and long-run horizon. For the first time, window-wise optimal lag-selection procedures are applied in connection with these techniques. We find that exports long-run caused output growth from 1997 until 2009 which can be seen as a consequence of political reforms of the 1990s that boosted economic growth by generating foreign direct investment opportunities and higher exports. For the short-run, export significantly caused output in the period 1998–2003 which followed a concentration of liberalization measures in 1997. Causality in the reversed direction, from output to exports, only seems to be relevant in the short-run.     

生育率最优路径、劳动力供给转型与经济增长

通过内生化劳动力和人力资本,以Q-Q理论为基础,根据生育率在劳动力供给和人力资本积累中的联动关系以及劳动力供给转型规律,利用动态最优控制原理,解释了殖民解放以来发展中国家先上升后下降的人口再生产过程及经济效应。结果表明:生育率的最优路径呈倒U型;整个路径存在两个鞍点均衡,只有当人力资本积累跨越某个门槛值时,第一个鞍点均衡才能过渡到另一个鞍点均衡;均衡的产出水平与劳动力折旧率成正比,与人力资本折旧率成反比。     

Growing Pains: How Risk Perception and Risk Communication Research Can Help to Manage the Challenges of Global Population Growth

In 2011, the global human population reached 7 billion and medium variant projections indicate that it will exceed 9 billion before 2045. Theoretical and empirical perspectives suggest that this growth could lead to an increase in the likelihood of adverse events (e.g., food shortages, climate change, etc.) and/or the severity of adverse events (e.g., famines, natural disasters, etc.). Several scholars have posited that the size to which the global population grows and the extent to which this growth increases the likelihood of adverse outcomes will largely be shaped by individuals’ decisions (in households, organizations, governments, etc.). In light of the strong relationship between perceived risk and decision behaviors, it is surprising that there remains a dearth of empirical research that specifically examines the perceived risks of population growth and how these perceptions might influence related decisions. In an attempt to motivate this important strand of research, this article examines the major risks that may be exacerbated by global population growth and draws upon empirical work concerning the perception and communication of risk to identify potential directions for future research. The article also considers how individuals might perceive both the risks and benefits of population growth and be helped to better understand and address the related issues. The answers to these questions could help humanity better manage the emerging consequences of its continuing success in increasing infant survival and adult longevity.     

Rapid growth or stagnation: An economic policy choice

Why has the American economy performed so poorly in the past decade, especially in comparison with the two prior decades? This paper makes the theoretical and empirical case that a series of economic policy decisions provides the most satisfactory explanation and that policy reform will restore good economic performance. The paper also considers alternative explanations including the idea of a new secular stagnation unrelated to policy and the view that the deep financial crisis inevitably delayed recovery from the recession.     

1984—1988年中国农业增长滞缓探微

1978年开始试行的家庭联产承包责任制极大推动了中国农村经济的复苏和增长,但其在全国普及后,中国农业却陷入增长滞缓泥沼. 基于对河南省商城县一位老农民的采访,通过个案分析发现当时乡、村两级地方组织以提留统筹费名义向农民收取的不合理税款削弱了农民的劳作积极性,使得大量农村人口外流,从而导致1984—1988年间中国农业增长陷入滞缓境地. 此外,分析发现1987年农业增长的正向波动缘于科学技术运用的滞后效应. 1978—1988年间全国农业,特别是河南省农业的宏观数据又再次验证了提留统筹费对农业增长的消极影响和科学技术在运用过程中存在的滞后效应,由此建议将农业赋税制度作为农村经济改革的重要抓手,同时着力完善科学技术在农村的引入推广方式.