中国居民的收入差距对经济增长的影响

改革开放以来,中国的经济虽然多年保持着较高的增长率,但居民的收入差距也日益扩大。通过实证分析表明,由于中国居民的收入差距已经突破了国际警戒线,且城乡收入差距、地区间收入差距也突破世界上最高值。这不公影响有效需求,而且影响了生产要素的投入效应,更影响了经济效率的提高。这对我国长期稳定的经济增长是极为不利的。因此,中国要实现经济的快速发展,必须兼顾公平,缩小收入差距,才能实现持续稳定的经济增长态势。      

Short- and long-run rolling causality techniques and optimal window-wise lag selection: an application to the export-led growth hypothesis

The literature devoted to the export-led growth (ELG) hypothesis, which is of utmost importance for policymaking in emerging countries, provides mixed evidence for the validity of the hypothesis. Recent contributions focus on the time-dependence of the relationship between export and output growth using rolling causality techniques based on vector autoregressive models. These models focus on a short-term view which captures single policy-induced developments. However, long-term structural changes cannot be covered by examinations related to the short-term. This paper hence examines the time-varying validity of the ELG hypothesis for India for the period 1960–2011 using rolling causality techniques for both the short-run and long-run horizon. For the first time, window-wise optimal lag-selection procedures are applied in connection with these techniques. We find that exports long-run caused output growth from 1997 until 2009 which can be seen as a consequence of political reforms of the 1990s that boosted economic growth by generating foreign direct investment opportunities and higher exports. For the short-run, export significantly caused output in the period 1998–2003 which followed a concentration of liberalization measures in 1997. Causality in the reversed direction, from output to exports, only seems to be relevant in the short-run.     

生育率最优路径、劳动力供给转型与经济增长

通过内生化劳动力和人力资本,以Q-Q理论为基础,根据生育率在劳动力供给和人力资本积累中的联动关系以及劳动力供给转型规律,利用动态最优控制原理,解释了殖民解放以来发展中国家先上升后下降的人口再生产过程及经济效应。结果表明:生育率的最优路径呈倒U型;整个路径存在两个鞍点均衡,只有当人力资本积累跨越某个门槛值时,第一个鞍点均衡才能过渡到另一个鞍点均衡;均衡的产出水平与劳动力折旧率成正比,与人力资本折旧率成反比。     

Growing Pains: How Risk Perception and Risk Communication Research Can Help to Manage the Challenges of Global Population Growth

In 2011, the global human population reached 7 billion and medium variant projections indicate that it will exceed 9 billion before 2045. Theoretical and empirical perspectives suggest that this growth could lead to an increase in the likelihood of adverse events (e.g., food shortages, climate change, etc.) and/or the severity of adverse events (e.g., famines, natural disasters, etc.). Several scholars have posited that the size to which the global population grows and the extent to which this growth increases the likelihood of adverse outcomes will largely be shaped by individuals’ decisions (in households, organizations, governments, etc.). In light of the strong relationship between perceived risk and decision behaviors, it is surprising that there remains a dearth of empirical research that specifically examines the perceived risks of population growth and how these perceptions might influence related decisions. In an attempt to motivate this important strand of research, this article examines the major risks that may be exacerbated by global population growth and draws upon empirical work concerning the perception and communication of risk to identify potential directions for future research. The article also considers how individuals might perceive both the risks and benefits of population growth and be helped to better understand and address the related issues. The answers to these questions could help humanity better manage the emerging consequences of its continuing success in increasing infant survival and adult longevity.     

Rapid growth or stagnation: An economic policy choice

Why has the American economy performed so poorly in the past decade, especially in comparison with the two prior decades? This paper makes the theoretical and empirical case that a series of economic policy decisions provides the most satisfactory explanation and that policy reform will restore good economic performance. The paper also considers alternative explanations including the idea of a new secular stagnation unrelated to policy and the view that the deep financial crisis inevitably delayed recovery from the recession.     

1984—1988年中国农业增长滞缓探微

1978年开始试行的家庭联产承包责任制极大推动了中国农村经济的复苏和增长,但其在全国普及后,中国农业却陷入增长滞缓泥沼. 基于对河南省商城县一位老农民的采访,通过个案分析发现当时乡、村两级地方组织以提留统筹费名义向农民收取的不合理税款削弱了农民的劳作积极性,使得大量农村人口外流,从而导致1984—1988年间中国农业增长陷入滞缓境地. 此外,分析发现1987年农业增长的正向波动缘于科学技术运用的滞后效应. 1978—1988年间全国农业,特别是河南省农业的宏观数据又再次验证了提留统筹费对农业增长的消极影响和科学技术在运用过程中存在的滞后效应,由此建议将农业赋税制度作为农村经济改革的重要抓手,同时着力完善科学技术在农村的引入推广方式.     

“模仿创新”在企业成长中的作用探析——以腾讯为例

作为中国互联网即时聊天的先行者,腾讯通过其模仿-创新-赶超的策略取得了瞩目的成就。在对国内外学者研究模仿创新的基础上,通过对腾讯的商业模式及发展脉络的实证研究,认为在我国现阶段资源、技术、设备、信息尚不足以进行自主创新的基础上,模仿创新不失为一条快速提升企业发展能力的渠道我国转型时期企业做大做强的途径。     

从PPI变化看当前稳增长与化解过剩产能

我国经济稳增长必须把化解过剩产能作为一项重要任务,这既是减少经济波动的需要,也是转变经济发展方式,为新兴产业发展腾笼换鸟的必然要求。建议多管齐下,实行五大战略:坚持实施扩大内需战略,大力促进消费需求增长和稳步推进城市化;坚持实施"走出去"战略,积极拓展国际新兴市场和转移国内过剩生产能力;坚持实施产业创新升级战略,大力优化行业技术和产品结构;坚持实施淘汰落后产能战略,严格控制过剩行业产能扩张;坚持建立健全产业引导调控战略,促进产业有序竞争发展。     

The internalising and externalising problems of adolescents in Croatia: Socio‐demographic and family victimisation factors

This study assessed Croatian adolescents' problems in relation to socio‐demographic characteristics and experienced family violence in early and late adolescence. A national representative sample of 1,780 Croatian students (45.3% males) in two age groups representing early (M = 13.20; SD = 0.42) and late adolescence (M = 18.14; SD = 0.38) participated. The questionnaire included the Youth Self‐Report, modified version of ISPCAN Child Abuse Screening Tool – Children's Version, and socio‐demographic data. Results show that internalising problems were more present in female adolescents, in adolescents who perceived family financial hardship and in those whose biological parents did not live together. More externalising problems were reported in late adolescence by students who were living in large cities and whose families had either low, or above‐average, financial status. Adolescents who have experienced family violence were at higher risk of developing internalising and/or externalising problems.     

The Effects of Family Structure on African American Adolescents' Marijuana Use

The relationship between family structure and marijuana use throughout adolescence was assessed among 1,069 African Americans from the NLSY. A model was also tested suggesting that the effects of family structure on marijuana use would be mediated by poverty, neighborhood quality, and adolescents' self‐control. As most prior studies have found, family structure was not related to female adolescents' marijuana use. For young men, being raised with both biological parents was associated with less marijuana use throughout adolescence compared to those whose mothers never married, divorced early and never remarried, or divorced and remarried. Some support for the model was also found. We concluded that being raised without the presence of a biological father is a risk factor for marijuana use among young men, but African American young women from single‐parent households have unique resources that protect them from marijuana use. Understanding those resources may offer insight into prevention programs for other youth.