Bias and precision of measures of survival gain from right‐censored data

In cost‐effectiveness analyses of drugs or health technologies, estimates of life years saved or quality‐adjusted life years saved are required. Randomised controlled trials can provide an estimate of the average treatment effect; for survival data, the treatment effect is the difference in mean survival. However, typically not all patients will have reached the endpoint of interest at the close‐out of a trial, making it difficult to estimate the difference in mean survival. In this situation, it is common to report the more readily estimable difference in median survival. Alternative approaches to estimating the mean have also been proposed. We conducted a simulation study to investigate the bias and precision of the three most commonly used sample measures of absolute survival gain – difference in median, restricted mean and extended mean survival – when used as estimates of the true mean difference, under different censoring proportions, while assuming a range of survival patterns, represented by Weibull survival distributions with constant, increasing and decreasing hazards. Our study showed that the three commonly used methods tended to underestimate the true treatment effect; consequently, the incremental cost‐effectiveness ratio (ICER) would be overestimated. Of the three methods, the least biased is the extended mean survival, which perhaps should be used as the point estimate of the treatment effect to be inputted into the ICER, while the other two approaches could be used in sensitivity analyses. More work on the trade‐offs between simple extrapolation using the exponential distribution and more complicated extrapolation using other methods would be valuable. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

试论传统音乐在经济发展中的传承

本文阐述了中国传统音乐的历史、发展和现状,具体分析了经济发展和传统音乐的矛盾,提出了切实有效的保护、传承中国传统音乐的措施,并展望了中国传统音乐的发展前景。     

论东亚三国西学成果差异及其原因

东亚三国在文化层面上存在着东亚各国的文化差异,即东西文化交流与融合过程中,显现的东亚各国文化的传统特性。通过分析得出,东亚三国的历史文化传统差异是导致三国在不同时期、不同阶段形成西学成果及水准差异的主要原因。     

Richmond Barthé: Black Homoeroticism and the Raptures of the Hermaphroditic Body

ABSTRACT

African American sculptor Richmond Barthé (1901–1989) conjoined issues of sexuality and race in works that foreground the aesthetic worth of Black bodies. While exposing Western figuration practices that exclude Black people from artistic visibility, Barthé also targeted the African American distaste for the explicit treatment of nudity. Barthé’s androgynous sculptures have by now become the trademark of his art, but Barthésian scholarship still neglects the significance of a small group of statues, which de-emphasize the aura of same-sex desire, in order to explore the intricacies of corporeal ambisexuality. In view of his homoerotic depictions and the presence of the hermaphrodite at the core of his disruption of the sexual dichotomy, the frequent assumption that Barthé remained “closeted all his life” does not stand critical scrutiny. Instead of taking refuge in the sexual closet, Barthé debunked the man/woman binary as the foremost epistemic construct that prompts the societal need for sexual self-misrepresentations.     

神秀禅语疑义辨析——以“身灭影不灭，桥流水不流”为中心

神秀禅语"身灭影不灭,桥流水不流"是禅门有名的公案,因其晦涩难懂,故一直为学界所关注。结合神秀的理论体系,可以说这一禅语是其"一切诸法唯心所生"思想的集中体现,它既揭示了认识的种种差异性,又为"观心看净"的修养论提供了理论依据。     

基于主成分分析的陕西省三大区域经济差异评价

近年来,虽然陕西省的经济发展速度较快,但其经济发展水平在全国仍处于落后地位,而且其内部经济发展也极不平衡。文章首先分析了陕西省三大区域经济发展现状,然后选取三大区域的10个地级城市,构建了由10个指标组成的区域经济差异评价体系,采用多元统计中的主成分分析法,对陕西省三大区域的经济差异进行了定量评价和分析比较,将三大区域划分为四大经济发展梯度区,结果是陕北经济发展最快,有取代关中领头羊地位之势,陕南经济发展滞后。     

地方财政运行：区域差异与应对之策

分税制改革以来,我国地方政府财政能力和财政运行状况区域差异特征明显,突出表现在财政收支规模与结构、财政收支缺口与财政自给率等方面,进而直接导致各地区基本公共服务均等化程度的差异。这与地区经济发展水平不平衡、分税制财政管理体制不完善、区域间转移支付制度不合理等因素密切相关。基于此,提出促进地区间财政相对均衡,进而实现区域间基本公共服务均等化的政策建议:推行政府层级的扁平化改革,确保地方政府尤其是中西部地方政府财政收入来源;完善分税制财政管理体制,适度向中西部地区倾斜;完善政府间财政转移支付制度,加大对中西部地区的扶持。     

30例儿童初始箱庭基本特征年龄差异研究

箱庭疗法作为一种积极想象和自由表达的途径,支持儿童发展的基本工作,广为儿童所喜爱。运用箱庭疗法,对30例儿童初始箱庭作品的年龄差异进行研究,发现年龄差异有如下特征：儿童使用的玩具主要为人物、动物、植物和食物。随着年龄增长,儿童在人物类、动物类、植物类、连接桥、家具这五大类玩具的使用上更加频繁。自我像在三岁以后出现频繁。动沙的次数随着年龄而增多,力度增强。作品主题明确丰富,年龄越大,主题越丰富。     

中国高技术产业资本配置效率差异的实证研究

基于Jeffrey Wurgler资本配置效率模型,采用截面数据和面板数据模型,对中国1996-2009年17个高技术产业的资本配置效率进行实证分析。结果显示:中国高技术产业的资本配置效率整体较低,且年度波动大;中国高技术产业内部各行业的资本配置效率差异大,市场需求大的行业资本配置效率较高,外贸依存度高的行业资本配置效率低;中国高技术产业的资本配置效率存在很大区域差异,由于市场化水平、金融深化程度的差异,东部地区最高,中部地区次之,西部地区最低。     

差异教学：内涵、设计策略及难题

差异教学是一种优质的、引人入胜的教学,是教育教学改革的必然趋势,是解决传统教学弊病的必由之路。政策的扶持、理论的支撑、新课程改革的推动为其提供了可行性。在差异教学设计中,了解学生是差异教学的前提;寻求突破点是差异教学创生的要义;挑战性和多样性是差异教学的关键要素;弹性分组与层递式任务是差异教学的核心。差异教学的实施面临着高考的制约、学生差异难以精确化和教师精力及能力有限等难题,但其前途是光明的。