中国宏观经济预警体系的评价与修正

摘　　要:中国宏观经济预警体系建立于20世纪90年代初,十多年来为国家宏观调控提供了可靠的信息,成为宏观调控的主要依据之一。然而,进入本世纪以来,中国经济的运行格局发生了重大变化,导致预警体系的敏感度和预测精度出现了偏差,已经到了需要修正的时候。本文在对中国宏观预警体系分析与评价的基础上,对体系的结构与指标提出了修正的思路与方案。     

高等农业职业教育《淡水养殖水化学》开展研究性学习的探索

国际 2 1世纪教育委员会的报告《教育———财富蕴藏其中》中提出面对未来社会的发展的 4种基本要求———学会认知、学会做事、学会共处、学会生存。这说明 ,在现代教育中 ,必须以学生发展为中心 ,开展研究性学习。我国实施的研究性学习就是改变我国传统的以教师为中心的教学模式 ,突出学生在学习中的主导地位。从贯彻素质教育的宗旨出发 ,在学科教学中渗透研究性学习 ,是培养学生综合能力的一种尝试和实践。     

区域主导产业评价指标与数学模型

以现有研究成果为基础,建立了区域主导产业评价指标体系;基于灰色聚类的思想,提出了评价区域主导产业优度的数学模型-定权聚类评估模型,并对河南省武陟县工业主导产业选择进行了实证研究。     

Efficacy of programmes for the unemployed: discrete time modelling of duration data from a matched-comparison study

An evaluation is described of two UK Government programmes for the long-term unemployed in Great Britain, Employment Training and Employment Action, using discrete time hazard modelling of event histories. The study design employed a closely matched comparison group and carefully chosen control variables to minimize the effect of selection bias on conclusions. The effect of unobserved heterogeneity is investigated by using some standard random effect model formulations.     

水力发电企业整体效益评价及实例

针对水力发电企业的整体经济效益难以进行评价的问题,提出了以灰色关联度技术为支撑,选择数量模型评价方法,应用层次分析法的有关技术和思想,建立起具有可操作性的评价模型及评价体系。     

The Analysis of Crop Variety Evaluation Data in Australia

The major aim of crop variety evaluation is to predict the future performance of varieties. This paper presents the routine statistical analysis of data from late-stage testing of crop varieties in Australia. It uses a two-stage approach for analysis. The data from individual trials from the current year are analysed using spatial techniques. The resultant table of variety-by-trial means is combined with tables from previous years to form the data for an overall mixed model analysis. Weights allow for the data being estimates with varying accuracy. In view of the predictive aim of the analysis, variety effects and interactions are regarded as random effects. Appropriate inferential tools have been developed to assist with interpretation of the results. Analyses must be conducted in a timely manner so that variety predictions can be published and disseminated to growers immediately after harvest each year. Factors which facilitate this include easy access to historic data and the use of specialist mixed model software.     

A Welcome to the International Statistical Conferences

Criteria for assessing the effectiveness of a medical screening program are difficult to define; medical knowledge and screening procedures change rapidly, and self-selection at medical screens is unavoidable. This article discusses these and other basic issues in evaluation of medical screening programs with particular reference to results from the HIP breast cancer study. In addition, the article reviews various statistical models that describe the processes of disease and screening. The models are shown to be statistically indistinguishable in practice because of the small sample sizes typically available in medical screening trials. Finally the article suggests incorporating knowledge from clinical trials and from studies of robustness into statistical models designed to identify reasonable strategies for screening.     

西部地区物流实力综合评价实证分析

通过构建评价物流实力的指标体系,选取15个与物流业相关的具有代表性的评价指标作为西部十省(市)区的物流实力综合评价的原始指标,利用改进的主成分分析法对15个指标数据进行处理分析,对西部十省(市)区物流实力给出了客观评价,并指出了主要的影响指标,同时就物流业进一步发展提出了积极、合理的建议。     

基于改进D—S证据理论的TOPSIS模型在科技奖励评价中的应用

针对科技奖励评价的特点,根据改进D—S证据合成规则,将专家的评价指标值转化为指标的综合得分并形成决策矩阵;结合TOPSIS模型求解理想解和负理想解,计算距离和贴近度,对各评价项目进行综合排名。实证结果表明：该模型能够很好地解决科技奖励评价过程中的不确定性问题,为科技奖励综合评价提供了一种新的思路。     

A note on estimation in bernoulli trials with dependence

Finite sample properties of estimators for the parameters of a dependent Bernoulli process are investigated using Monte Carlo techniques. A ratio estimator is proposed for the dependence parameter of the model and is compared to the approximate maximum likelihood estimator given by Klotz. It is shown that both estimators have a downward bias that is extreme in certain cases and that samples well in excess of 200 may be necessary before the asymptotic theory can be applied.