Multiobjective Decision-Tree Analysis1

Single-objective-based decision-tree analysis has been extensively and successfully used in numerous decision-making problems since its formal introduction by Howard Raiffa more than two decades ago. This paper extends the traditional methodology to incorporate multiple noncommensurate objective functions and use of the conditional expected value of the risk of extreme and catastrophic events. The proposed methodology considers the cases where (a) a finite number of actions are available at each decision node and (b) discrete or continuous states of nature can be presented at each chance node. The proposed extension of decision-tree analysis is introduced through an example problem that leads the reader step-by-step into the methodological procedure. The example problem builds on flood warning systems. Two noncommensurate objectives—the loss of lives and the loss of property (including monetary costs of the flood warning system)–are incorporated into the decision tree. In addition, two risk measures—the common expected value and the conditional expected value of extreme and catastrophic events—are quantified and are also incorporated into the decision-making process. Theoretical difficulties associated with the stage-wise calculation of conditional expected values are identified and certain simplifying assumptions are made for computational tractibility. In particular, it is revealed that decisions concerning experimentation have a very interesting impact on the noninferior solution set of options—a phenomenon that has no equivalence in the single-objective case.     

从三首《望岳》看杜甫的思想发展历程

杜甫一生创作了三首《望岳》,望的分别是泰山、华山和衡山。本文力图寻找出流贯其中的思想蕴含和人生际遇的不同,从而对三首《望岳》作出不同于以往的全新的合理的诠释。同时认为,杜甫始终都没有放弃“致君尧舜”的政治理想,而随着的人生遭遇的转变,这一理想的内涵在其不同的人生时期又存在着鲜明的差异。     

网络语言形成源流探析

网络语言是现代汉语的一种新变体,它是在人类出现新的交流方式的条件下产生的。它的形成与古代汉语、外语等其他符号系统有着密切的源流关系。研究网络语言,对于网络的发展、网络语言的规范以及应用语言学学科的发展,无疑起着积极的推动作用。     

由感及情到悟创作一幅中国画的心理过程

通过对画家创作一幅画灵感来源的分析,揭示作画者在作画之前和作画过程中,怎么样由对外部自然的感知,发展到内在情感的融入,最终经过“悟”的思想熔铸创作一幅画的心理过程.     

我校日语教学中多媒体课件使用情况及建议

多媒体教学作为一种现代化的教学手段,已经广泛应用于各项教学活动中,尤其是对于"视""听""说"交互性很强的外语教学,学校鼓励并要求广大教师积极采用.但是由于种种原因,我校日语专业授课中多媒体课件的使用还存在许多不足之处.为此,文章以我校日语专业四个年级的学生为对象进行了问卷调查,目的是通过调查,掌握日语专业授课中多媒体的使用情况,目前多媒体课件主流采用的形式,学生的满意度等,并从中找出不足,分析原因,提出改进建议,促进我校日语专业的多媒体课件教学.     

Life Years Lost at Hazardous Waste Sites: Remediation Worker Fatalities vs. Cancer Deaths to Nearby Residents

We present a hypothetical case study using the Years of Potential Life Lost (YPLL) metric to compare cancer risks incurred by residents living near a Superfund site to occupational fatality risks incurred by workers employed in that site's remediation. Since cancer occurs late in life, and because we assume its mortality rate is 60%, each case results in 8.8 YPLL. Each occupational fatality, which typically occurs earlier in life, results in 38.1 YPLL. In our case study, the residential population of 5000 incurred 1.3 YPLL, compared to 5.7 YPLL incurred by the 500 workers. Several uncertain assumptions may influence our calculations; moreover, occupational risks may be viewed as more "voluntary" than risks incurred by residents. However, because the magnitude of the YPLL incurred by workers and residents may be comparable, risk managers should consider occupational risks when evaluating remedial alternatives.     

在化学课教学中培养学生科学素养的方法初探

化学新课程标准对学生的科学素养提出了相应要求,而如何在化学课教学中培养学生的科学素养,是一个需要探索的问题。     

可持续建筑设计中的寿命周期评价方法

寿命周期概念及其评价体系作为可持续发展战略的重要组成部分,正在得到越来越广泛的应用。融入建筑设计决策过程的寿命周期评价方法是指具有规范化的设计步骤、定量化的优选方法的一种可持续建筑系统设计方法,较之传统节能设计更趋向于科学化、系统化。首先提出并分析了建筑设计中的寿命周期评价方法,然后总结了寿命周期评价工具的类型及应用,最后分析了寿命周期评价和寿命周期成本分析的结合应用。     

论冯友兰“新理学”之和谐思想及其形上学依据

冯友兰先生的“新理学”体系中,包含着丰富而深刻的和谐哲学思想。就丰富而言,“新理学”体系既有社会生活方法论中的人与人和谐;又有“天地境界”说中的“天人”和谐。就深刻来讲,以“理”为主要范畴的“新理学”形上学体系,通过其心性论为“境界说”和“社会生活方法论”提供了“最哲学”的形上学依据。     

研究生招生工作中的小概率事件及其预防

利用小概率原理分析研究生招生工作中的突发事件,提出了导致小概率事件发生的原因有重复效应、数量累积效应和群众检验效应,认为在招生工作中要树立小概率事件意识,科学设计招生工作流程,建立应对小概率事件的制度,以更有效地应对小概率事件。