An endemic–epidemic beta model for time series of infectious disease proportions

Time series of proportions of infected patients or positive specimens are frequently encountered in disease control and prevention. Since proportions are bounded and often asymmetrically distributed, conventional Gaussian time series models only apply to suitably transformed proportions. Here we borrow both from beta regression and from the well-established HHH model for infectious disease counts to propose an endemic–epidemic beta model for proportion time series. It accommodates the asymmetric shape and heteroskedasticity of proportion distributions and is consistent for complementary proportions. Coefficients can be interpreted in terms of odds ratios. A multivariate formulation with spatial power-law weights enables the joint estimation of model parameters from multiple regions. In our application to a flu activity index in the USA, we find that the endemic–epidemic beta model provides a better fit than a seasonal ARIMA model for the logit-transformed proportions. Furthermore, a multivariate approach can improve regional forecasts and reduce model complexity in comparison to univariate beta models stratified by region.     

Generating inclusive services for children,youth and families: A shift to using complex systems theory

Service systems for children and families have been shaped by standard approaches to knowledge-building, which reflect a reductionist approach and assume linearity and/or that individuals and experiences are normally distributed. Yet, these approaches may be inadequate for clients most at-risk, especially those who would be analytic ‘outliers’. A complexity lens focuses on the whole system and seeks to identify patterns, including the dynamic interactions between components of the system. Social work scholars have begun to apply complexity theory to social work research efforts, demonstrating the conceptual potential of incorporating this theoretical approach into social work theories and models such as the person-in-environment framework and the ecosystems perspective. Yet, frameworks informed by complexity theory may require ontological and epistemological shifts in thinking and new methodological approaches in order to fully embody a complexity approach. Complexity theory offers the opportunity to consider social work clients who are most at-risk, as it is better suited for power law distributions. We can, therefore, reconceptualize the most ‘at-risk’ clients as being in a state of transition, which is also the space of most creativity and possibility.     

鸟虫印文字造型探微

古玺印中的鸟虫文字以字形结构为基本框架、参以鸟、鱼、虫等动物的形象来形成富有图画意味的印章文字.其文字造型的渊源是西周以来的大篆美饰之风,鸟虫印文字的基本造型规律是;字法"文","图"一体,笔画化"直"为"曲",章法以"繁"代"简".     

雕刻系统中的仿形测试与三维成型技术研究

介绍了作者对雕刻行业ＣＡＴ／ＣＡＤ／ＣＡＭ系统进行研究开发所发取得的部分成果，其中包括浮雕轮廓仿形ＣＡＴ装置的实现，测量数据的筛选与处理方法Ｄｍａｘ浮雕曲面造型算法及数控加工文件的形成等。     

Bayesian modelling of effects of prenatal alcohol exposure on child cognition based on data from multiple cohorts

High levels of prenatal alcohol exposure (PAE) result in significant cognitive deficits in children, but the exact nature of the dose-response relationship is less well understood. To investigate this relationship, data were assembled from six longitudinal birth cohort studies examining the effects of PAE on cognitive outcomes from early school age through adolescence. Structural equation models (SEMs) are a natural approach to consider, because of the way they conceptualise multiple observed outcomes as relating to an underlying latent variable of interest, which can then be modelled as a function of exposure and other predictors of interest. However, conventional SEMs could not be fitted in this context because slightly different outcome measures were used in the six studies. In this paper we propose a multi-group Bayesian SEM that maps the unobserved cognition variable to a broad range of observed outcomes. The relation between these variables and PAE is then examined while controlling for potential confounders via propensity score adjustment. By examining different possible dose-response functions, the proposed framework is used to investigate whether there is a threshold PAE level that results in minimal cognitive deficit.     

Outline of the conceptual evolution of the CEFYP*

This article presents a historical journey through the concepts developed (i.e., worked, modified, and made more complex) over four decades in the existence of one of the first family therapy institutions in Argentina: the CEFYP. This journey travels from its beginnings, in the midst of the military dictatorship, to the present. The concepts will be introduced and discussed taking into account those concepts that emerged and stood out as we worked therapeutically, enriching our clinic in each new paradigm. We will start from the CEFYP's emergence within the socio-political framework of Argentina in the 1970s, its constitution as differentiated from the prevailing psychoanalytic context within the field of psychotherapies, and its evolution, an evolution that was always attentive to the particular questions that accompanied its relational approach. These questions, which intersected philosophy, anthropology, art, and critical history, will express the position of the CEFYP in relation to change, history, power, dialogue, and the therapist and their place in the process of change. Finally, it will also discuss the CEFYP's way of thinking and developing the teaching and training of relational systemic therapists. This article will also present the most outstanding clinical themes, exemplified with the use of vignettes. Among others, these include our trajectories in the clinic of violence and partner violence, the clinic in destructive divorces, and the clinic with seriously disturbed families.