Abstractions on steroids: A critical realist approach to computer simulations

Computer simulations are increasingly used within various fields of the social sciences, including analytical sociology and computational social science. However, the method has yet to fully find its place within critical realism, generally regarded as reductionist and methodological individualist and thus inadequate to the task of grasping the full and enigmatic complexity of social life. This article contributes to the discussion by suggesting an alternative approach to computer simulations in the social realm. Instead of representing reality, simulations are seen as a way of boosting abstraction by enabling us to isolate and study the effects of emergent mechanisms. The need for such tools is growing more urgent in an age characterized by rapid change and global networks of causal interrelation. Hence there is a need not only for new tools to deal with causal complexity within critical realism, but also for a critical realist perspective to fill the meta‐theoretical vacuum on which the simulation approach is largely based. The approach developed here provides a challenge to the predominant ways in which simulations are utilized today, with increasingly sophisticated models aiming towards realistic representation on the basis of empirical data.     

The Use of Telematics Devices to Improve Automobile Insurance Rates

Most automobile insurance databases contain a large number of policyholders with zero claims. This high frequency of zeros may reflect the fact that some insureds make little use of their vehicle, or that they do not wish to make a claim for small accidents in order to avoid an increase in their premium, but it might also be because of good driving. We analyze information on exposure to risk and driving habits using telematics data from a pay‐as‐you‐drive sample of insureds. We include distance traveled per year as part of an offset in a zero‐inflated Poisson model to predict the excess of zeros. We show the existence of a learning effect for large values of distance traveled, so that longer driving should result in higher premiums, but there should be a discount for drivers who accumulate longer distances over time due to the increased proportion of zero claims. We confirm that speed limit violations and driving in urban areas increase the expected number of accident claims. We discuss how telematics information can be used to design better insurance and to improve traffic safety.     

Mercury,Polychlorinated Biphenyls,Selenium, and Fatty Acids in Tribal Fish Harvests of the Upper Great Lakes

The Chippewa Ottawa Resource Authority monitors fish contaminants in Anishinaabe (Great Lake Native American) tribal fisheries. This article updates previously reported trends in two persistent bioaccumulative toxic (PBT) substances that are the primary contributors to consumption advisory limits for these fish: methylmercury (MeHg) and polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs). Also, we report, for the first time, an analysis of nutritional benefit bioindicators and metrics in these same Upper Great Lakes fish harvests: selenium (Se) and omega‐3 fatty acids (PUFA‐3s). A novel risk/benefit quantification originally presented by Ginsberg et al. is reported here to characterize the tradeoffs between fatty acid benefits and toxic MeHg health outcomes. We also report a Se benefit metric to characterize the possible protective value against MeHg neurotoxicity based on Ralston et al. Congruent with Anishinaabe cultural motivations to consume fish from their ancestral fisheries, nutritional content was high in locally caught fish and, in some respects, superior to farmed/store‐bought fish. These Great Lakes fish still contained levels of PBTs that require careful education and guidance for consumers. However, the contaminant trends suggest that these fish need not be abandoned as important (both culturally and nutritionally) food sources for the Anishinaabe who harvested them.     

A non‐stationary bivariate INAR(1) process with a simple cross‐dependence: Estimation with some properties

This paper considers modelling of a non‐stationary bivariate integer‐valued autoregressive process of order 1 (BINAR(1)) where the cross‐dependence between the counting series is formed through the relationship of the current series with the previous‐lagged count series observations while the pair of innovations is independent and marginally Poisson. In addition, this paper proposes a generalised quasi‐likelihood (GQL) estimating equation based on the exact specification of the mean score and the auto‐covariance structure. The proposed approach is also compared with other popular techniques such as conditional maximum likelihood (CML), generalised least squares (GLS) and generalised method of moment (GMM) based on simulated data from the proposed BINAR(1). Moreover, the model is applied to weekly series of day and night road accidents arising in some regions of Mauritius and is compared with other existing BINAR(1) models.     

基于犹豫直觉模糊语言集均值-标准差偏好距离的多属性决策研究

在犹豫直觉模糊语言集和语言尺度函数的基础上定义了均值-标准差偏好的Hamming距离，并提出了基于犹豫直觉模糊语言集距离TOPSIS和TODIM的多属性决策方法，进一步利用这两种方法对实例问题建筑商的招标方案进行排序，并讨论了偏好参数对排序结果的灵敏度分析。为验证上述方法的有效性，与已有方法对同一实例的排序结果进行了比较分析。     

Risk Mapping of Groundwater‐Drawdown‐Induced Land Subsidence in Heterogeneous Soils on Large Areas

Groundwater leakage into subsurface constructions can cause reduction of pore pressure and subsidence in clay deposits, even at large distances from the location of the construction. The potential cost of damage is substantial, particularly in urban areas. The large‐scale process also implies heterogeneous soil conditions that cannot be described in complete detail, which causes a need for estimating uncertainty of subsidence with probabilistic methods. In this study, the risk for subsidence is estimated by coupling two probabilistic models, a geostatistics‐based soil stratification model with a subsidence model. Statistical analyses of stratification and soil properties are inputs into the models. The results include spatially explicit probabilistic estimates of subsidence magnitude and sensitivities of included model parameters. From these, areas with significant risk for subsidence are distinguished from low‐risk areas. The efficiency and usefulness of this modeling approach as a tool for communication to stakeholders, decision support for prioritization of risk‐reducing measures, and identification of the need for further investigations and monitoring are demonstrated with a case study of a planned tunnel in Stockholm.     

Temperament,mothers' reactions to children's emotional experiences,and emotion understanding predicting adjustment in preschool children

It is expected that both children and their parents contribute to children's development of emotion knowledge and adjustment. Bidirectional relations between child temperament (fear, frustration, executive control) and mothers' reactions to children's emotional experiences were examined to explore how these variables predict children's emotion understanding, social competence, and problem behaviors. Preschool‐aged children (N = 306) and their mothers were assessed across four‐time points. Children's temperament and mothers' non‐supportive reactions to children's emotional experiences were assessed when children were 36 and 45 months of age. Emotion understanding was assessed when the children were 54 months of age and teachers reported on children's problem behaviors and social competence when the children were 63 months of age. Covariates included family income, child cognitive ability, gender, and child adjustment at 36 months. Results from path analyses demonstrated that bidirectional relations between children's temperament and mothers' non‐supportive reactions were not significant. However, mother's non‐supportive reactions directly predicted fewer problem behaviors, and children's emotion understanding mediated the relation between children's executive control and their later social competence. As such, emotion understanding appears to be one mechanism through which executive control might impact social competence.     

Legitimizing leisure experiences as emotional work: A post‐humanist approach to gendered equine encounters

Due to changes in lifestyle and work patterns, education and values associated with wellbeing, non‐human animals are now incorporated into a range of human experiences and environments. This research specifically focuses on human–equine relations, examining blurred boundaries between therapeutic and recreational interspecies encounters. It is acknowledged that human–equine relations are often gendered and this research focuses mainly on women's narratives. Viewed through the post‐humanist lens, horses now form kinship and companionship roles, particularly for women, where relations have become mutually emotionally dependent as a result of interspecies communication and embodied encounters. Research utilizes feminist post‐humanist and cultural politics of emotion frameworks associate with the co‐agency on the co‐agency of animals. Embedded in the concept of equiscapes, or post‐humanist leisure spaces, research methods employ qualitative approaches, including in‐depth interviews, participant diaries and multispecies ethnography. Findings reveal how women make considerable investments in equine activities, which develops mutual welfare and wellbeing. Yet, despite these benefits, emotional and other expenditures are justified in work discourses to legitimize them as valuable to themselves, their families and their communities.